[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.46,0:00:11.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So about 11 years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.55,0:00:15.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I gave a talk in California\Nat the TED Conference.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.67,0:00:18.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it went really well.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.99,0:00:22.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was called "10 ways\Nthe world could end tomorrow."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.55,0:00:24.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it also went viral
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.21,0:00:27.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at a time before\Nthings started going viral,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.67,0:00:29.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it wasn't in a good way.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.68,0:00:32.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It ended up on thousands\Nof nutty websites.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.97,0:00:37.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are the kind of websites for people\Nwho think "Men in Black" is a documentary.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.77,0:00:39.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.70,0:00:42.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's the kind of websites\Nfor people who actually believe
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.78,0:00:46.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Mayan calendar does predict doomsday.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.50,0:00:49.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you'd googled me before this talk,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.58,0:00:52.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you would have seen\Nmaybe nine or ten references to me
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.13,0:00:54.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a science magazine editor.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.55,0:00:56.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Three weeks after the talk,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.45,0:00:59.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there were 418 references
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.11,0:01:03.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,linking "moi" to little\Ngreen men from Mars.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.16,0:01:05.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, coincidentally,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.22,0:01:08.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was teaching my mother\Nhow to use a computer at the time,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.92,0:01:10.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.05,0:01:12.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,long distance,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.04,0:01:15.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I was teaching her about Google.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.24,0:01:17.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So guess who she googled first.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.76,0:01:18.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.20,0:01:21.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So ...
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.58,0:01:22.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.68,0:01:24.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,['Steve, are you in trouble?']
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.38,0:01:27.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I started worrying about\Nmy reputation a little.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.30,0:01:30.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I decided to call\NChris Anderson, the TED curator.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.28,0:01:33.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I knew Chris would not want TED speakers
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.34,0:01:36.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be co-opted\Nby every nut job on the web,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.66,0:01:41.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maybe he could get his friends\NLarry and Serge at Google
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.31,0:01:43.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to erase all this.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.00,0:01:46.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was a little disappointed.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.57,0:01:47.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,['Hmmm, sorry about that']
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.81,0:01:51.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Didn't exactly get the sympathy\NI was looking for.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.01,0:01:52.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chris thought it was funny.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.93,0:01:55.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But he did ask me to do another TED Talk,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.21,0:01:59.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I jumped at the chance\Nbecause I saw it as redemption.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.68,0:02:03.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I could do "10 reasons\Nto be optimistic about the future."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.73,0:02:06.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I did. It was a great talk.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.04,0:02:09.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Honestly, my best talk ever.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.26,0:02:14.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Full of surprises.\NLots of interesting science.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.52,0:02:16.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it didn't go over so well.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.39,0:02:21.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Everybody wanted another 10 ways\Nthe world could end suddenly.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.35,0:02:23.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,['Why didn't you do 10 more ways\Nthe world could end?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.84,0:02:25.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what about global warming?']
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.39,0:02:27.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And no one posted the optimistic talk.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.75,0:02:30.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when Mike and Linda asked me\Nto give a talk at TEDx
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.45,0:02:32.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these many years later,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.60,0:02:34.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had lots of good ideas.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.02,0:02:37.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But guess what they wanted.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.09,0:02:38.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[8 Ways the World Could End Tomorrow]
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.86,0:02:41.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's why we're here.\NDr. Doom and Gloom.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.07,0:02:45.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's begin the 2013 countdown.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.33,0:02:47.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[#8 - A pandemic is coming]
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.06,0:02:49.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, you're looking at N1H1.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.70,0:02:54.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's the original flu virus\Nthat caused the last great pandemic,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.13,0:02:58.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Spanish flu of 1918,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.53,0:03:03.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which infected 50%\Nof the world's population at the time,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.34,0:03:05.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was a billion people,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.25,0:03:08.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and probably killed\None out of every 10 people.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.37,0:03:09.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[~100 million deaths]
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.44,0:03:13.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But here's the interesting thing about it,\Nit came in three waves,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.11,0:03:17.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,three different waves\Npretty much about six months apart.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.60,0:03:22.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the second wave killed\Nevery single person who got the flu.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.41,0:03:26.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that is how bad flu can be.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.73,0:03:28.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, here we are in 2013,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.44,0:03:33.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in barnyards all over China\Nthere are ducks and pigs and chickens
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.57,0:03:34.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in close proximity.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.72,0:03:38.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's actually\Nwhere influenza originates.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.69,0:03:41.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, viruses have gotten\Nso good at mutating,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.98,0:03:43.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in these barnyards mostly,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.48,0:03:45.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you and I have to get\Na flu shot every year
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.78,0:03:47.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to protect against this.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.04,0:03:49.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Although I will tell you\Nsomething interesting.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.28,0:03:51.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Less than half of the population\Nof the United States
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.90,0:03:53.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,does get a flu shot every year.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.25,0:03:58.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that is not what keeps the Centers\Nfor Disease Control up at night.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.79,0:04:03.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What they worry about\Nis something called a recombinant flu bug.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.05,0:04:04.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here's how it works.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.43,0:04:05.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are two kinds of viruses.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.92,0:04:08.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are viruses that infect animals,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.69,0:04:11.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and animals pass them\Neasily to other animals.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.56,0:04:13.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then there are viruses\Nthat infect humans,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.72,0:04:16.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they pass them easily to other humans.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.38,0:04:19.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When a human has something\Nlike the Hong Kong flu,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.63,0:04:23.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or in 2009 that H1N1 that came back,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.62,0:04:26.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they go to the market\Nand they buy a chicken
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.48,0:04:30.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that happens to have\None of these animal viruses,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.82,0:04:34.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they take it home\Nand they don't cook it properly,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.88,0:04:37.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they eat it,\Nthey get the animal virus.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.03,0:04:40.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And now inside that person\Nare two kinds of viruses:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.57,0:04:43.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a virus that transmits easily\Nfrom human to human
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.74,0:04:46.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a virus that transmits easily\Nfrom animal to animal.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.94,0:04:48.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in almost all cases,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.71,0:04:54.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that animal virus is far more toxic\Nand far more of a killer.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.79,0:04:58.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, in just the last few weeks,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.90,0:05:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a new very deadly animal flu\Ncalled H7N9 has popped up.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.60,0:05:07.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,About 100 people are infected.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.22,0:05:09.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A lot of them have died.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.29,0:05:12.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is one that the CDC\Nis really worried about,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.21,0:05:16.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we could be looking\Nat another worldwide pandemic
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.90,0:05:18.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like the Spanish flu
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.70,0:05:22.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if a human being\Nwho has a human-type virus,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.71,0:05:24.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that transmits easily to people,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.46,0:05:27.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,happens to eat one of these animals.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.45,0:05:30.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, there are solutions to this,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.39,0:05:33.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we live in a very\Ndifferent world from 1918.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.48,0:05:36.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are 80,000 commercial jets
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.05,0:05:38.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that take off every day\Nfull of passengers.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.85,0:05:44.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It would take a flu virus\Nabout two weeks to circle the globe.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.42,0:05:49.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Private producers cannot make\Nenough vaccine fast enough to save us.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.16,0:05:50.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The only thing that we can do
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.93,0:05:53.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is what the Australian\Ngovernment has done,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.44,0:05:55.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is to create laboratories
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.01,0:05:57.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are ready to go on a moment's notice
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.24,0:06:00.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to create vast quantities\Nof flu [vaccine].
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.22,0:06:01.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We should do this.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.15,0:06:04.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Second, we need to make\Na simple dip stick test.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.93,0:06:07.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You go to the drug store, you buy a swab,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.29,0:06:08.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you put it in your mouth.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.56,0:06:10.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If it turns blue, you have the flu.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.26,0:06:12.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many times\Nhave you gone to the doctor:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.28,0:06:14.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Do I have the flu?\NDo I have a bacterial infection?"
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.77,0:06:16.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Half the time they don't even know.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.17,0:06:20.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When a pandemic comes,\Nyou want to know if you have the flu,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.81,0:06:23.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you will not be able to find a doctor.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.21,0:06:27.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thirdly, we need to invest\Nin a really good public health system.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.29,0:06:30.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've actually been firing\Nabout 50,000 public health workers
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.17,0:06:31.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the last three years.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.45,0:06:35.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, 40-50 years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.64,0:06:38.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this country built\Nthousands of bomb shelters
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.67,0:06:41.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we thought nuclear war\Nwas a real threat.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.35,0:06:44.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we can do that,\Nwe can build a public health system
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.06,0:06:46.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that will take care of us in a pandemic.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.82,0:06:50.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Number seven.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.34,0:06:51.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.78,0:06:52.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Isn't that beautiful?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.80,0:06:56.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's a mass coronal ejection\Ncoming off the sun.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.13,0:06:59.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It makes something called a solar flare\Nlook like kindergarten.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.97,0:07:01.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[#7 - The sun brightens]
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.16,0:07:04.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It shoots uncountable numbers of atoms
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.88,0:07:08.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have been broken apart\Ninto little particles
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.22,0:07:10.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and radiation out into space.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.53,0:07:14.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Almost all of these blasts\Nmiss the Earth
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.28,0:07:17.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the sun is like\Nthis huge yellow beach ball in space,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.82,0:07:21.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're like this little tiny BB\Nat the end of the auditorium.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.53,0:07:24.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So no matter which direction\Nthe sun sends these out,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.10,0:07:27.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's very unusual\Nfor us to get a direct hit.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.83,0:07:31.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, happened last August,\Nand it happened a month ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.80,0:07:36.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you would not have been wanting\Nto have been in an airplane at that time.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.83,0:07:42.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1859, a coronal mass ejection\Ntook the brand new US telegraph system
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.04,0:07:44.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and basically melted it.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.08,0:07:46.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It started fires.\NIt shocked the operators.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.63,0:07:48.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the wires disppeared.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.13,0:07:51.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most of the time our magnetic field\Nin our atmosphere
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.86,0:07:54.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,protects us from coronal mass ejections.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.69,0:07:56.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But a severe direct hit
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.58,0:08:01.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would take out the entire\Nworld's power grid at once,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.39,0:08:05.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all the satellites in orbit,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.25,0:08:09.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,plunging us essentially\Ninto a 19th-century existence.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.39,0:08:14.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It would take 20 years\Nto restore half the grid
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.71,0:08:17.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we do not have back-up.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.40,0:08:20.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Try to imagine life without electricity.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.10,0:08:23.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Almost all cities\Nwould become uninhabitable.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.38,0:08:28.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We build sky scrapers\N80 stories high and up
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.32,0:08:30.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and two stories underground.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.62,0:08:33.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to create safety zones\Nbeneath our buildings.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.11,0:08:37.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We should be building down eight stories\Nfor every 80 stories up,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.07,0:08:39.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we should make that\Npart of our building code.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.44,0:08:43.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The state of New Jersey\Nis rebuilding 20,000 bridges in the state
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.96,0:08:47.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they know there will be\Na massive earthquake on the East coast
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.37,0:08:49.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sooner or later.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.49,0:08:54.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we can do that, we can have different\Nbuilding codes for our buildings.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.44,0:08:59.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We should also view transformers and wires\Nas vulnerable and expendable,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.66,0:09:03.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we should have hardened,\Nunderground power plants
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.48,0:09:06.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ready to go in an emergency.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.93,0:09:08.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[#6 - We develop a new life form]
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.66,0:09:13.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a synthetic genome\Ninvented by the Craig Venter Institute
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.26,0:09:16.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and inserted into a bacterial cell
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.55,0:09:19.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to create what I would call\Na new life form.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.02,0:09:25.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This life form never existed before,\Nand it can reproduce.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.01,0:09:29.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was done three years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.95,0:09:31.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the goal is noble.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.29,0:09:36.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's to produce\Nanything we want from a cell.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.77,0:09:40.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Takes in certain things,\Nputs out stuff that we want.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.37,0:09:43.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, they could make\Nsynthetic vaccines.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.76,0:09:47.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or they could turn carbon dioxide\Ninto usable fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.68,0:09:50.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what could be wrong with that?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.91,0:09:55.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our history is littered with examples\Nof bad things that got out of secure labs
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.82,0:10:00.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and things that go amok\Nwhen we try to tamper with Mother Nature.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.27,0:10:01.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here's a low tech example.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.90,0:10:06.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We brought kudzu here from Japan\Nto control soil erosion.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.100,0:10:08.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Didn't work out so well.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.13,0:10:13.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And meanwhile, labs around the world\Nare experimenting with biotech
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.28,0:10:14.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in ways you cannot imagine.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.76,0:10:18.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can create a perfect\Nin vitro male baby
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.64,0:10:20.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with blond hair and blue eyes,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.92,0:10:24.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you can make modified corn\Ndo anything you want.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.55,0:10:30.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, is genetically modified corn\Nsaving us from famines?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.14,0:10:37.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I see it as a threat to the only\Npurely wild corn genome left in the world
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.27,0:10:39.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that grows in Mexico.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.93,0:10:45.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Look at number one here:\Nwatch closer, regulate more.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.38,0:10:47.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Watch closer, regulate more.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.73,0:10:52.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No single federal agency or a single law\Ngoverns this vast new world.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.81,0:10:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Instead, there's\Na hodge podge of regulations
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.00,0:10:57.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the Food and Drug Administration,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.01,0:10:59.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the United States\NDepartment of Agriculture
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.05,0:11:00.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the EPA.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.90,0:11:04.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need a new single agency\Nof the government
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.08,0:11:05.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to bring order to this.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.42,0:11:11.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Meanwhile, less watched people\Nare entering this field all the time,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.41,0:11:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and amateurs will follow.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.16,0:11:19.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Kickstarter just got its first proposal\Nfor a synthetic life form:
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.75,0:11:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a plant that would glow at night
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.08,0:11:25.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we can sprinkle\Nits seeds along roadsides
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.69,0:11:28.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and eliminate street lights.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.91,0:11:32.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Remember, genetically modified crops
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.36,0:11:37.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are not driven by a need\Nto produce a better world
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.69,0:11:39.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to save people from starvation,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.67,0:11:42.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they are driven by money.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.02,0:11:44.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And synthetic biology is about money too.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.74,0:11:49.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, for a little humor.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.29,0:11:50.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[#5 - Robots take over]
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.89,0:11:53.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to tell you this.\NYou're not going to believe it.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.69,0:11:56.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Computers will be smarter\Nthan us in 20 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.96,0:11:59.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know this stuff.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.19,0:12:02.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know that Deep Blue can play chess
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.07,0:12:04.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,better than anyone\Non the face of the planet,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.38,0:12:05.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you know that the Google car
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.96,0:12:08.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can drive itself\Nbetter than you can drive it.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.74,0:12:09.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[Solutions]
Dialogue: 0,0:12:09.77,0:12:12.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's hasta la vista time.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.25,0:12:14.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Time to wake up and smell the silicon.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.85,0:12:19.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you want to get ahead of this curve,\Nyou are going to have to become a cyborg.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.33,0:12:22.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.33,0:12:25.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Number four: A lot of volcanoes go off.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.35,0:12:28.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These things are huge trouble.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.62,0:12:31.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We do not live on a nice,\Nstable solid planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.74,0:12:34.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is mostly molten rock and iron
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.38,0:12:38.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it probably has a nuclear reactor\Nin the center of it that keeps it hot.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:38.52,0:12:40.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're, like, on these life rafts
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.84,0:12:44.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,floating over all this molten rock.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.58,0:12:48.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Earth's crust is so constantly\Nfolding in on itself
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.21,0:12:51.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we cannot find a stone\Non the surface of the Earth
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.47,0:12:53.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is as old as the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.75,0:12:59.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ninety-eight percent of all the species\Non Earth have gone extinct.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.76,0:13:02.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And volcanoes are the biggest reason why.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.72,0:13:06.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of the 11 biggest extinctions,\Nfour were caused by volcanoes.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.32,0:13:10.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A new study that links\Nthe late Traissic extinction
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.64,0:13:13.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of volcanic eruptions and outflows -
Dialogue: 0,0:13:14.01,0:13:18.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or a new study links\Nthis amazing extinction of life,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.15,0:13:20.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,95 percent of life on Earth -
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.04,0:13:23.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to volcanoes that essentially stretched -\Nand it all went off at the same time -
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.84,0:13:26.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,essentially stretched\Nfrom what is now New Jersey
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.55,0:13:28.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to what is now Morocco.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.34,0:13:33.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In our past, Earth\Nhas opened up many times
Dialogue: 0,0:13:33.100,0:13:35.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and flowed out for centuries.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.98,0:13:39.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India is an outflow of volcanism.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.74,0:13:42.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Volcanic activity fills the sky\Nwith soot and hot ash
Dialogue: 0,0:13:42.97,0:13:45.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and buries every living thing
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.04,0:13:48.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and blocks the sun for so many summers,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.19,0:13:51.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the plants on land\Nand plankton in the sea die,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:51.74,0:13:54.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when they die, we die.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.31,0:13:59.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Volcanoes can also produce\Nso much carbon dioxide
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.29,0:14:03.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they will massively warm the planet\Nand create a runaway greenhouse effect,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.71,0:14:06.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is the opposite\Nof what we often expect from them.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:07.55,0:14:13.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In Holland, they grow most of their food\Nin greenhouses with synthetic light
Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.60,0:14:15.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,24 hours a day.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.31,0:14:16.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:17.83,0:14:21.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When I was putting this talk together,\NI just had this weird idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.62,0:14:25.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I went to Amazon, I looked to see how much\Nthey were and how good they are.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.64,0:14:29.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gas masks are the cheapest\Ninsurance you can buy.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:29.29,0:14:30.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They don't take up much space,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:30.93,0:14:33.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they get you through\Na lot of hard times.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.18,0:14:39.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And finally, the ultimate solution\Nto living on a planet like ours,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.07,0:14:41.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which really is unstable\Nand will not last forever -
Dialogue: 0,0:14:41.88,0:14:45.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in four and a half billion years,\Nthe sun will take us in -
Dialogue: 0,0:14:46.44,0:14:51.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our species will eventually die\Nif we do not colonize other planets
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.66,0:14:53.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in other solar systems.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:54.06,0:14:57.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Number three: a runaway greenhouse effect,\NI just spoke about that a little,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.68,0:14:59.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or an ecosystem collapse.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.63,0:15:03.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, no surprise, we're heating up.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:03.31,0:15:09.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1990, the mean atmospheric temperature\Nof Earth was 14 1/2 degrees centigrade.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:09.06,0:15:12.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 23 years, we've gone up\N3/4 of a degree.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.89,0:15:16.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Never in the history of this planet -\Nwe know from ice cores -
Dialogue: 0,0:15:16.53,0:15:19.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has carbon dioxide risen so fast.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.31,0:15:23.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When we get to 16 1/2 degrees -\Nthat's 1 1/4 degrees from where we are -
Dialogue: 0,0:15:23.42,0:15:26.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we will lose control of our climate.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.48,0:15:28.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or let me put it a different way:
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.05,0:15:30.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It will become extremely unpredictable.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.26,0:15:33.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every major extinction in Earth's history
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.41,0:15:37.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has been characterized\Nby rapid increases in CO2.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:37.21,0:15:41.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we're now in an unprecedented period\Nof increases in CO2.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:42.32,0:15:44.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Normally the atmosphere releases
Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.06,0:15:46.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about 10 percent of the heat\Nwe get from the sun.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:46.71,0:15:50.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But as we heat up,\Nmore and more water turns to vapor,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:50.21,0:15:52.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more global warming methane\Nand other gases
Dialogue: 0,0:15:52.66,0:15:55.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are released from the northern\Nand southern permafrost,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:55.67,0:15:58.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at some point\Nthe Earth works like a greenhouse -
Dialogue: 0,0:15:58.74,0:16:00.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,gets into a feedback loop
Dialogue: 0,0:16:00.48,0:16:02.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that eventually will turn us into Venus,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.65,0:16:07.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where the average daytime temperature\Nis 900 degrees Fahrenheit.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.96,0:16:11.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the same time we're witnessing\Na huge extinction cycle.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:11.26,0:16:12.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the next 25 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:12.66,0:16:17.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we will lose 25 percent of all the species\Nin the Hawaiian islands alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:17.74,0:16:20.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're devastating our oceans\Nby overfishing them,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:20.46,0:16:23.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're killing\Nour coral reefs with heat.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.70,0:16:28.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somewhere in the Amazon rainforest\Nis what I like to call a marginal tree.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:28.64,0:16:32.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We keep cutting down\Noxygen-producing trees,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.40,0:16:35.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and someday, when we get\Nto that marginal tree,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:35.37,0:16:40.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we will see the beginning of the collapse\Nof our oxygen ecosystem.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.81,0:16:42.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are still asleep at the wheel.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.88,0:16:44.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Global warming is an emergency.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:44.72,0:16:47.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's almost incomprehensible
Dialogue: 0,0:16:47.32,0:16:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how much CO2 we have to stop\Nputting in the air in the next 10 years
Dialogue: 0,0:16:51.10,0:16:53.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to stop this process.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:53.16,0:16:58.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we need to prioritize the animals\Nand the amount of nature
Dialogue: 0,0:16:58.01,0:16:59.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we're trying to save.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.50,0:17:01.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can't save it all.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.27,0:17:04.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to save the species\Nthat help us the most.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:04.88,0:17:06.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[#2 - Nuclear war breaks out]
Dialogue: 0,0:17:06.30,0:17:07.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, this is interesting
Dialogue: 0,0:17:07.44,0:17:10.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because 11 years ago,\Nthis wasn't even on my radar screen,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:10.23,0:17:14.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I don't think nuclear war\Nwas any kind of significant threat.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:15.22,0:17:17.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a good reason\Nevery major nation in the world
Dialogue: 0,0:17:17.77,0:17:20.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wants to keep Iran from getting the bomb.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:20.53,0:17:24.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there's a larger reason\Nthat's really out of our control.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:24.25,0:17:28.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Both India and Pakistan have\Nmore than 100 nuclear weapons each,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:28.84,0:17:32.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,far more than enough\Nto create a nuclear winter,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:32.18,0:17:34.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which will kill us all.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:34.28,0:17:37.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have fought three wars since 1947.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:37.80,0:17:41.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And India is developing\Na nuclear submarine fleet
Dialogue: 0,0:17:41.20,0:17:44.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so it can fire its missiles from anywhere.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:46.52,0:17:49.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,President Obama\Nhas spoken about this idea;
Dialogue: 0,0:17:49.48,0:17:51.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it makes tremendous sense.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:51.40,0:17:54.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's a huge rap\Nagainst anti-missile systems
Dialogue: 0,0:17:54.28,0:17:57.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because if we use it and we knock down\Neverybody else's missiles,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:57.90,0:18:00.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then we're left\Nwith all the good missiles.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:00.71,0:18:05.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So part of the answer to this problem
Dialogue: 0,0:18:05.23,0:18:10.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,may be to develop anti-missle\Ntechnology cooperatively
Dialogue: 0,0:18:10.08,0:18:13.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with many, many other nations\Nand place them where they are needed.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:13.99,0:18:16.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You have to fire an anti-missile
Dialogue: 0,0:18:16.07,0:18:20.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,30 seconds after a missile\Nwith a warhead on it is fired
Dialogue: 0,0:18:20.08,0:18:24.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that it catches it before\Nit's on the downward curve in space.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:26.69,0:18:29.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Number one: We cross paths\Nwith a really big asteroid.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:29.40,0:18:31.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is my favorite.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:31.64,0:18:32.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:18:32.79,0:18:36.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, there's a possibility I've been wrong\Nabout some of these things,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:36.09,0:18:38.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the possibility some of\Nthese things won't happen.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:38.91,0:18:42.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the best sense of journalism,\Nthat's my disclaimer.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:42.42,0:18:44.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I am not wrong about this,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:44.29,0:18:46.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is what keeps me up at night.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:46.24,0:18:48.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is my passion.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:48.39,0:18:50.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right now, somewhere in space,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:50.89,0:18:53.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe in the asteroid belt\Nbetween Mars and Jupiter
Dialogue: 0,0:18:53.53,0:18:55.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or farther out in the Kuiper belt,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:55.95,0:18:59.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of large objects\Nthat exist beyond Neptune,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:59.03,0:19:01.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's a missile with our name on it.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:02.44,0:19:06.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It could break out of its orbit tomorrow,\Nor not for 100,000 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:06.78,0:19:08.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but its fate is sealed.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:08.81,0:19:10.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It will hit Earth.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:10.80,0:19:13.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It has happened before many times.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:13.21,0:19:14.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Get a telescope and look at the moon.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:14.100,0:19:17.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is covered with asteroid hits.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:17.39,0:19:19.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you'll see that\Nin a video in a second.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:19.87,0:19:22.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Earth is just as pockmarked\Nwith asteroid hits.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:22.99,0:19:25.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's just that that folding\Ncrust that we have,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:25.63,0:19:27.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's hidden a lot of them,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:27.46,0:19:29.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and vegetation has covered a lot of it.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:30.51,0:19:34.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A large asteroid took out the dinosaurs\N65 million years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:19:34.17,0:19:38.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by creating shock waves\Nand firestorms across this planet
Dialogue: 0,0:19:38.02,0:19:40.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and created a sky so full of debris
Dialogue: 0,0:19:40.29,0:19:43.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that summer did not return\Nfor at least 100 years
Dialogue: 0,0:19:43.45,0:19:45.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maybe 1,000 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:45.52,0:19:50.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Had humans been alive then,\Nthey would all have been wiped out.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:50.66,0:19:52.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, here's some hope.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:53.19,0:19:55.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,433 Eros. This is a huge rock -
Dialogue: 0,0:19:55.69,0:19:58.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's bigger than the one\Nthat took out the dinosaurs -
Dialogue: 0,0:19:58.25,0:20:01.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that orbits in the asteroid belt\Nbetween Mars and Jupiter.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:02.44,0:20:03.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At sometime in its future
Dialogue: 0,0:20:03.77,0:20:06.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it will shift from a Mars-crossing orbit
Dialogue: 0,0:20:06.32,0:20:07.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it's in now
Dialogue: 0,0:20:07.40,0:20:09.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to an Earth-crossing orbit.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:09.09,0:20:12.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It will intersect\Nwith where our planet is.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:12.76,0:20:16.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is bigger than the asteroid\Nthat killed off the dinosaurs.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:16.90,0:20:18.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But here's where\Nthis thing gets interesing.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:18.99,0:20:23.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We took this photo from a space probe\Nthat left the Earth in the year 2000,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:23.48,0:20:27.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a NASA probe, that was designed\Nto study asteroids.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:27.71,0:20:32.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this spaceship settled into orbit\Naround the asteroid.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:32.18,0:20:37.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can put a baseball in orbit\Naround me if you're in space;
Dialogue: 0,0:20:38.29,0:20:40.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's enough gravity.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:40.03,0:20:42.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, when the mission ended,\Nthere was a little leftover fuel,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:42.94,0:20:44.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there was a little leftover electricity,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:44.87,0:20:47.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the mission controllers -\Nthis wasn't part of the mission -
Dialogue: 0,0:20:47.84,0:20:50.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they landed the spacecraft\Non Eros successfully.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:51.22,0:20:55.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And since then, we have\Nintercepted three comets in deep space
Dialogue: 0,0:20:55.84,0:20:58.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that move at 20 miles per second.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:00.56,0:21:03.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Stop and think about\Nthe implications of those missions.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:03.65,0:21:05.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For the first time in human history,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:05.96,0:21:09.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have the ability\Nto fly into an incoming asteroid
Dialogue: 0,0:21:09.33,0:21:11.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and change its orbit,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:11.18,0:21:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but only if we know it's there,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:13.00,0:21:16.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and only if we have a rocket ready to go.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:16.39,0:21:22.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most asteroids are found by amateurs\Nwhen it's too late to do anything.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:22.55,0:21:25.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,NASA is looking for bad guys\Nin the asteroid belt,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:25.66,0:21:28.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there are about\N20,000 of them out there.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:28.16,0:21:30.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they can't look in the Kuiper belt,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:30.03,0:21:31.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's too far away,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:31.15,0:21:33.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it has 100,000 objects in it
Dialogue: 0,0:21:33.50,0:21:37.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,10 times bigger than the asteroid\Nthat took out the dinosaurs.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:38.36,0:21:40.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In only 20 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:40.29,0:21:44.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have developed the technology\Nto change our fate.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:44.27,0:21:49.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can intercept an asteroid,\Nand we can take it out of play.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:51.31,0:21:54.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One day you or your children,\Nor their children,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:54.71,0:21:56.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or their children's children
Dialogue: 0,0:21:56.04,0:21:58.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will wake up and this news will be real,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:58.95,0:22:01.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the headline on the front page\Nof The New York TImes:
Dialogue: 0,0:22:01.76,0:22:05.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Killer Asteroid Found\Non Collision Course with Earth.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:05.85,0:22:08.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What happens after that\Nif we're not prepared
Dialogue: 0,0:22:08.91,0:22:10.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is really beyond horror.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:10.69,0:22:13.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most humans will not die from the impact,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:13.10,0:22:15.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most will die of starvation.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:16.16,0:22:18.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the price of insurance\Nto protect us from this
Dialogue: 0,0:22:18.94,0:22:22.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is what we spend on one B2 bomber.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:23.34,0:22:26.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The asteroid problem is stupidly obvious.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:27.37,0:22:30.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A physicist said almost 100 years ago:
Dialogue: 0,0:22:30.54,0:22:33.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"There are two kinds of civilizations:
Dialogue: 0,0:22:33.22,0:22:36.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those who can protect themselves\Nfrom an asteroid impact
Dialogue: 0,0:22:36.48,0:22:38.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and those who can't."
Dialogue: 0,0:22:38.82,0:22:40.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're the former.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:40.17,0:22:41.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What are we waiting for?
Dialogue: 0,0:22:41.54,0:22:42.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:42.84,0:22:44.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)