[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.30,0:00:13.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[TED intro plays]
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.03,0:00:25.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Have you ever wondered what it's like\Nto be a tree?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.53,0:00:27.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nobody.\N[audience laughs]
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.60,0:00:28.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ah, there's somebody.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.70,0:00:31.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,See, I thought it was just me,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.59,0:00:32.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but for me, I think--
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.73,0:00:34.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Oh, there's more of you out there.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.53,0:00:38.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I think for me,\Nit's actually a side effect of my job.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.16,0:00:40.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I work on mountain pine beetle,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.74,0:00:44.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this insect has the dubious honor\Nof having developed,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.72,0:00:48.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over just the last few years,\Nwhat is very likely
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.44,0:00:52.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be the largest insect outbreak\Never recorded by humans
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.90,0:00:54.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.68,0:00:56.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this tiny little insect,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.96,0:01:00.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the size and appearance\Nof a mouse turd,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.11,0:01:04.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has managed to kill millions\Nand, in fact, billions of trees
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.76,0:01:07.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,across vast landscapes.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.19,0:01:09.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, when I'm out working in the forest,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.08,0:01:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I actually do think about what it means\Nto be a tree.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.80,0:01:15.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, obviously,\Nthey're quite different from us.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.59,0:01:18.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're made of wood;\Nwe're made of flesh and blood,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.35,0:01:21.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I see another big difference.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.47,0:01:23.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Trees can't walk.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.14,0:01:24.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Trees can't run.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.62,0:01:26.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And trees can't hide.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.39,0:01:27.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that means
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.77,0:01:31.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that when a enemy\Nlike mountain pine beetle shows up,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.64,0:01:33.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have no choice
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.57,0:01:36.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but to stand their ground.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.29,0:01:40.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, most of us,\Nwhen we think about trees,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.97,0:01:44.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we think about\Nthese nice, gentle, passive,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.21,0:01:46.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,benign organisms,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.32,0:01:49.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but nothing could be further\Nfrom the truth.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.60,0:01:50.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Trees
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.70,0:01:52.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are dangerous.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.22,0:01:53.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.97,0:01:57.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I see some skeptics out there,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.03,0:02:00.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but really, put yourself\Nin the place of a tree.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.63,0:02:02.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What would you do?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.01,0:02:03.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Would you just stand there?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.61,0:02:04.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Would you fight back?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.95,0:02:06.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'd fight back.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.09,0:02:08.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's exactly what trees do.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.88,0:02:11.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Trees are armed\Nwith an amazing array
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.73,0:02:14.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of physical and chemical weapons.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.55,0:02:18.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They fight back,\Nand they fight back really hard.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.33,0:02:20.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you're a mountain pine beetle,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.79,0:02:23.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,trees pose a significant challenge.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.76,0:02:25.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, it takes hundreds
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.23,0:02:27.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and sometimes even thousands\Nof beetles
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.51,0:02:31.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to kill a single tree.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.26,0:02:33.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.33,0:02:36.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if not enough beetles show up,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.18,0:02:38.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's a dangerous situation,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.43,0:02:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because that means the tree wins\Nand the beetles die.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.00,0:02:43.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's actually very risky
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.88,0:02:47.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be a mountain pine beetle,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.30,0:02:49.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and even when they're successful,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.25,0:02:51.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it hardly seems worth the effort.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.62,0:02:54.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Trees\Nare the epitome of junk food.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.62,0:02:57.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Woody tissues have almost no nutrients,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.35,0:03:00.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and beetles can't live on wood\Nmuch easier than we can.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.47,0:03:02.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So how do they do it?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.21,0:03:05.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, guess what,\Nthey do it the same way we do.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.78,0:03:07.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When they've been eating a lot--\Nwell,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.01,0:03:08.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we've been eating\Na lot of junk food,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.80,0:03:11.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we pile on those nutritional supplements,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.49,0:03:13.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's exactly what they do,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.60,0:03:16.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,only in a very different way\Nas you might suspect.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.94,0:03:18.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The beetles actually partner\Nwith a couple of fungi
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.86,0:03:23.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that provide to them\Neverything that wood cannot:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.50,0:03:26.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,vitamins,\Nnitrogen to make proteins,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.01,0:03:28.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sterols to make hormones,\Nand so forth.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.44,0:03:29.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Pretty cool.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.70,0:03:31.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By partnering with fungi,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.59,0:03:34.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,beetles can use trees\Nto raise their kids,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.83,0:03:37.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but being able to use a tree for food
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.56,0:03:42.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is just the first step\Nin developing an outbreak.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.06,0:03:45.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is it\Nthat actually allows these beetles
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.12,0:03:48.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to develop such huge numbers
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.30,0:03:51.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they can kill you,\Nif you're a tree,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.48,0:03:53.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and your family\Nand your friends
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.67,0:03:57.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and, in fact, the entire forest?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.11,0:03:58.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, you'll hear from a lot of people
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.75,0:04:01.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the reason we have this big outbreak
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.88,0:04:04.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is because we have unhealthy forests,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.97,0:04:08.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or because we have too many pines,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.03,0:04:10.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or because we have too many big pines,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.40,0:04:13.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or too many lodgepole pines,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.31,0:04:15.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if we had only managed our forest,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.56,0:04:17.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,none of this would have happened.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.93,0:04:20.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's not exactly true.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.42,0:04:22.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As you might suspect,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.01,0:04:25.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's a little bit more\Nto that story.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.49,0:04:29.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me explain\Nhow this big outbreak developed
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.51,0:04:32.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and why this one\Nis so unusual
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.72,0:04:35.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compared to those that we've seen\Nin the past.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.75,0:04:40.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First, you need to know a little bit\Nabout the insect.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.13,0:04:43.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One thing,\Noutbreaks aren't new.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.10,0:04:46.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Mountain pine beetle is actually native\Nto western North America,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.25,0:04:49.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's been developing outbreaks there\Nfor millennia,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.88,0:04:53.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and these outbreaks\Nare actually natural disturbances.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.24,0:04:56.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They help maintain and restore\Nthe forest.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.57,0:04:57.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, clearly,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.80,0:05:01.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,beetles are not in outbreaks\Nall the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.02,0:05:05.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They only develop outbreaks\Nevery few decades or centuries,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.34,0:05:08.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and only when you have two things:
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.16,0:05:11.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you need to have lots of pines\Non the landscape
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.58,0:05:14.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are big enough\Nfor the beetles to use,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.07,0:05:16.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is a condition we always have,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.77,0:05:19.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a trigger.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.41,0:05:22.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me explain this trigger.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.14,0:05:25.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What you see here\Nis what a mountain pine beetle population
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.62,0:05:28.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,might look like\Nfor a couple of hundred years,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.62,0:05:30.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what you can see\Nis that the beetle
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.75,0:05:34.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is present in very low numbers\Nmost of the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.44,0:05:36.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so at this point,\Nif you're a tree,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.51,0:05:38.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you should feel very safe,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.85,0:05:40.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the beetles are actually
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.50,0:05:42.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the mercy\Nof their own low numbers.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.78,0:05:44.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are so few of them out there,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.40,0:05:47.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they can hardly ever kill a tree,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.22,0:05:50.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and those few trees they actually kill\Nhave disease or they're damaged
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.86,0:05:53.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and can't fight back.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.10,0:05:55.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But of course,\Nsomewhere along the way,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.80,0:05:57.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we get a trigger,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.42,0:06:00.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and for mountain pine beetle,\Nthe trigger
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.15,0:06:01.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a change in climate
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.81,0:06:04.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to warmer and drier conditions.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.69,0:06:07.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And at this point,\Nif you're a tree,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.21,0:06:09.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you should start to worry
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.24,0:06:11.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because warmer temperatures
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.22,0:06:14.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,allow greater productivity\Nof beetle young
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.49,0:06:17.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and greater survival\Nof their young over the winter,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.31,0:06:20.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that means more beetles,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.04,0:06:22.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and drought stresses trees,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.23,0:06:24.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that lowers their defenses,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.21,0:06:27.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that lowers the numbers\Nof beetles it takes to kill them.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.75,0:06:32.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And very importantly,\Ndrought stresses trees across regions,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.88,0:06:35.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that's really big areas.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.07,0:06:36.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you're a tree,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.49,0:06:39.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this\Nis a really bad combo.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.36,0:06:42.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It means\Nyou've got a lot of beetles out there,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.27,0:06:44.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it doesn't take very many\Nto kill a tree,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.00,0:06:48.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there's lots and lots and lots\Nof trees
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.06,0:06:50.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are easy to kill.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.17,0:06:55.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This situation allows the beetles\Nto rapidly build in population
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.02,0:06:56.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until they reach a threshold
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.99,0:06:59.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over which there are so many beetles
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.73,0:07:02.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they can even kill\Nhealthy, defensive trees.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.67,0:07:04.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At this point,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.26,0:07:07.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,tree defenses are inconsequential.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.35,0:07:09.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They no longer matter.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.02,0:07:11.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, in fact, the beetles switch
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.89,0:07:13.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to attacking healthy trees
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.20,0:07:16.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they're better food\Nfor their young,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.53,0:07:18.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and better food for the young means...
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.56,0:07:20.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more beetles.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.31,0:07:23.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At this point,\Nthe outbreak is self-perpetuating,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.43,0:07:26.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there's virtually nothing you can do\Nto stop it.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.91,0:07:28.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, once an outbreak initiates,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.95,0:07:31.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's a couple\Nof potential end points.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.80,0:07:34.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One,\Nit can go to completion,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.38,0:07:36.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that means that they--\Nthe beetles,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.18,0:07:38.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kill most of the suitable trees\Non the landscape,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.82,0:07:40.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then their populations crash
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.83,0:07:43.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they're out of food.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.08,0:07:47.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in the past,\Nthis seldom ever happened.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.31,0:07:49.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You had the initiation of an outbreak
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.59,0:07:52.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you had\Nan abnormally warm, dry period,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.74,0:07:54.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but when things went back to normal,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.86,0:07:56.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,got cooler and wetter,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.67,0:07:58.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then tree defenses came up;
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.23,0:08:00.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,beetle productivity went down,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.69,0:08:03.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the beetles pooped out.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.21,0:08:05.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the problem now is, of course,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.67,0:08:07.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we're not expecting to go back
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.53,0:08:09.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to cooler, wetter conditions.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.60,0:08:12.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The predictions\Nare we're going to get warmer
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.15,0:08:14.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in many places drier,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.76,0:08:18.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that means\Nthat going to completion
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.09,0:08:20.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,might be the new norm.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.25,0:08:23.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if that's the case,\Nwe need to be really concerned,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.67,0:08:26.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because that means really big changes
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.75,0:08:28.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in our forest ecosystems,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.83,0:08:32.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and of course, then,\Nbig changes in all those services
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.04,0:08:35.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and functions that they provide.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.07,0:08:37.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the current outbreak
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.32,0:08:41.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is actually, or maybe,\Na harbinger of things to come.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.37,0:08:44.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This outbreak is significantly different
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.10,0:08:46.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than any we've seen in the past.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.72,0:08:50.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For one, it's {\i1}ten{\i0} times bigger,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.83,0:08:52.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ten times.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.08,0:08:55.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that's pretty remarkable\Nin and of itself.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.11,0:08:56.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there's more.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.43,0:08:59.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The beetle is actually on the move.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.26,0:09:01.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because of warming,\Nthe beetle has moved
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.99,0:09:05.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,several hundred kilometers\Nfurther north in Canada,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.21,0:09:08.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's now all the way to the Yukon.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.52,0:09:11.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It has jumped the Northern Rockies
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.31,0:09:13.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and has spread across Alberta
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.98,0:09:17.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and is now even invading Saskatchewan.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.19,0:09:20.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In this location in Canada,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.16,0:09:22.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the beetle\Nis in a new place;
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.80,0:09:25.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's in a new species of tree,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.32,0:09:28.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that makes it an exotic.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.59,0:09:30.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we know that exotics
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.36,0:09:32.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are seldom very good
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.16,0:09:34.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for our native ecosystems.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.68,0:09:38.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The beetle is expected to continue\Nto move across the continent,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.01,0:09:39.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through the boreal forest
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.72,0:09:42.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and into our eastern pine forests.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.99,0:09:46.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because of warming,\Nthe beetle has also moved up in elevation
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.44,0:09:49.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where it's wiping out white bark pine.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.08,0:09:53.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a tree that used to be protected\Nfrom the beetle by cold,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.28,0:09:56.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but now the devastation\Nis so extensive and severe,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.88,0:09:59.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this critically important tree
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.04,0:10:01.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is now being recommended for listing
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.56,0:10:04.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as an endangered species.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.08,0:10:06.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And all of this\Nhas been due
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.90,0:10:10.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to a warming climate.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.41,0:10:13.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I mentioned\Nthat this particular outbreak
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.14,0:10:15.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is far outside the historic norm,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.93,0:10:18.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and as such, in many locations,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.51,0:10:21.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the beetle is no longer restorative\Nfor the forest,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.93,0:10:23.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but damaging.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.49,0:10:26.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Effects on water,\Nvegetation,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.29,0:10:28.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wildlife,\Nlocal communities,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.38,0:10:31.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and economies\Nhave been massive.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.89,0:10:33.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And human responses,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.18,0:10:35.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for better or for worse,\Nto the outbreak
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.16,0:10:39.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have added an additional level\Nof impact.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.03,0:10:40.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At this point,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.29,0:10:42.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you're a tree,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.11,0:10:43.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you should not only be worried;
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.99,0:10:47.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you should be shaking\Nin your roots.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.30,0:10:50.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[person laughs]\NSorry, bad one.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.35,0:10:52.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.11,0:10:54.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Couldn't help it.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.63,0:10:58.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, also, if you think about this--\Nthis outbreak,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.44,0:11:02.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's really tempting to think of it\Nas a local issue:
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.40,0:11:05.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's just western North America,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.28,0:11:08.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but actually, the implications\Nare global.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.34,0:11:12.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Trees are incredibly important sinks\Nfor carbon,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.15,0:11:14.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but when vast areas die,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.01,0:11:16.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they become sources.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.02,0:11:18.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the worst year of the outbreak,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.15,0:11:21.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,carbon emissions from beetle kill\Nin British Columbia alone
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.84,0:11:25.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are predicted\Nto have equaled the carbon releases
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.11,0:11:27.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from fires\Nacross all of Canada
Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.81,0:11:31.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the preceding forty years.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.32,0:11:33.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those kinds of carbon releases
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.20,0:11:36.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,obviously can feed back\Nto affect humans
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.24,0:11:39.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and ecosystems\Nall around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.63,0:11:42.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now something else\Nto actually think about as well
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.33,0:11:44.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with mountain pine beetle\Nis to realize
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.58,0:11:47.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this situation is not unique.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.28,0:11:50.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Climate-driven tree die-offs\Nare happening right now
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.49,0:11:52.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all over the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.17,0:11:55.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take, for example,\Nthe giant Euphorbia tree
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.20,0:11:56.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I work on in Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.97,0:11:59.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's being mass attacked\Nby ambrosia beetles.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.64,0:12:02.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are tiny, little beetles
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.43,0:12:04.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,related to the mountain pine beetle,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.38,0:12:06.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they're typically not a problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.99,0:12:09.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But because of increasing temperature,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:09.36,0:12:11.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,decreasing precipitation,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.55,0:12:13.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these trees are stressed,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.35,0:12:16.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the beetles are responding.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.29,0:12:19.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This iconic poison arrow tree\Nof Africa
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.32,0:12:21.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is very likely to disappear
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.54,0:12:23.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from many portions of its range
Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.49,0:12:26.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just over the next decade.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.85,0:12:30.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The massive piñon bark beetle ips\Nin the southwestern US
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.81,0:12:33.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has been so severe and extensive
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.54,0:12:37.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that many of these forests\Nare not expected to recover.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.44,0:12:39.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over eighty tree species\Naround the world
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.75,0:12:43.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are known to be in trouble\Ndue to climate change,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.02,0:12:45.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and likely there's a whole lot more
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.21,0:12:48.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we haven't yet recognized.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.51,0:12:50.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, what do we do?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.64,0:12:51.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What do you do?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.96,0:12:53.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What do I do?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.40,0:12:55.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What do the trees do?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.71,0:12:58.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, unfortunately,\Nwe can't just go out there somewhere
Dialogue: 0,0:12:58.35,0:13:00.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and turn down a thermostat.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:00.99,0:13:02.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can't lay out
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.86,0:13:06.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,thousands and thousands of miles\Nof irrigation,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.21,0:13:08.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if we could come up\Nwith the water.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:08.67,0:13:12.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And logging won't do much\Nif it's driven by climate.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.24,0:13:15.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we need to finally go\Nto the root of the problem
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.33,0:13:18.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and do something about our emissions\Nof greenhouse gasses,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.45,0:13:20.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we need to do it soon.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.49,0:13:24.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We also need to develop\Nnew tools and approaches to our forests.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.60,0:13:26.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to move away from thinking
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.01,0:13:28.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that logging will fix everything,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.17,0:13:30.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we need to start working\Nwith our knowledge
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.06,0:13:33.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of genetics and adaptation.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:33.12,0:13:37.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And very importantly,\Nwe need to remember
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.17,0:13:39.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that trees can't walk;
Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.11,0:13:41.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,trees can't run,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.04,0:13:43.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and trees can't hide,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.21,0:13:45.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and with increasing stress,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.30,0:13:49.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,trees are going to have fewer\Nand fewer defenses at their disposal,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:49.86,0:13:53.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and somehow it's going to be up to us\Nto get them through.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.01,0:13:56.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I hope I've opened some eyes\Nand minds tonight about the threat
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.33,0:13:59.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that a warming climate poses\Nto our forests,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.40,0:14:02.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I also hope\NI've helped people recognize
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.19,0:14:05.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that these threats are not just\Nthrough effects on the big things,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.68,0:14:07.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like ice shelves
Dialogue: 0,0:14:07.20,0:14:08.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and sea level rise
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.51,0:14:09.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and extreme weather,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:09.95,0:14:12.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but through their effects\Non the little things,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.39,0:14:14.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like a tiny little insect
Dialogue: 0,0:14:14.25,0:14:15.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the size and appearance
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.81,0:14:17.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of a mouse turd.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:17.43,0:14:19.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.85,0:14:22.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[applause]