[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:02.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,MALE NEWS PRESENTER 1: A major winter storm [OVERLAPPING]
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.46,0:00:05.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,MALE NEWS PRESENTER 2: The bruising fight [NOISE] to win Tuesday's Republican [OVERLAPPING]
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.34,0:00:07.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,MALE NEWS PRESENTER 3: Most dangerous virus. [NOISE]
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.05,0:00:13.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,MR GINGRICH: With your help, we're going to win a historic victory.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.05,0:00:17.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,FEMALE NEWS PRESENTER: The 2012 presidential campaign is in full swing,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.06,0:00:20.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with Republican candidates battling state by state to
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.37,0:00:23.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,determine who will face President Barack Obama on election day.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.85,0:00:26.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,MALE NEWS PRESENTER 4: In the poll numbers we are debuting tonight,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.91,0:00:29.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there is a new GOP front-runner in this race.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.77,0:00:33.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,FEMALE NEWS PRESENTER: A crucial part of this grueling electoral process is polls,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.93,0:00:36.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the almost daily snapshots of public opinion,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.93,0:00:40.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that help measure who's up and who's down among the candidates. [MUSIC]
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.29,0:00:42.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.47,0:00:47.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,DR VINCENT HUTCHINGS: The aim of an opinion poll is to get a sense about a population and where they [NOISE]
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.44,0:00:52.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stand on some particular set of issues or policies to measure their attitudes and effect.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.67,0:00:53.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,FEMALE NEWS PRESENTER: [MUSIC] Vincent Hutchings,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.92,0:00:57.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an NSF-funded professor of political science at the University of Michigan,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.94,0:01:03.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,says that public opinion polls rely on a concept in statistics known as random sampling.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.42,0:01:06.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The idea that it is possible to draw a clear picture about
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.80,0:01:10.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the feelings of a large group of people by examining how a small,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.86,0:01:14.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,randomly assembled slice of that group feels.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.19,0:01:19.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,DR VINCENT HUTCHINGS: The process involves interviewing a very small subset of that population
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.47,0:01:25.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and doing so in a scientific manner so that you'll have a better accurate sense
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.04,0:01:26.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but more efficient sense,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.67,0:01:29.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what the entire population understands.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.17,0:01:32.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,FEMALE NEWS PRESENTER: An opinion poll might focus on a particular state,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.22,0:01:37.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,such as Florida, or the entire US population of more than 300 million people.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.74,0:01:41.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Pollsters use computer programs to generate a random list of
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.50,0:01:45.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a few hundred or a few thousand telephone numbers from the larger group.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.50,0:01:50.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then they call each number to survey people for their opinions.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.04,0:01:53.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hutchings says making a random sample is a lot like cooking soup.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.92,0:01:56.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You don't need to eat the whole pot to know if it tastes good,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.96,0:01:59.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you just need a spoonful.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.34,0:02:03.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,DR VINCENT HUTCHINGS: The cook merely needs to get a spoon out, taste it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.58,0:02:05.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That spoon represents a sample,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.86,0:02:08.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as it were, of the actual contents of the pot.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.92,0:02:12.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,FEMALE NEWS PRESENTER: [MUSIC] Samples, in general, give better poll results when they include
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.45,0:02:14.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more characteristics of the whole population
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.77,0:02:17.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in the same proportions as the population.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.95,0:02:19.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Back to the soup analogy,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.79,0:02:21.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you're cooking chicken soup,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.43,0:02:24.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you want your sample to include the ingredients such as chicken,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.53,0:02:28.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,noodles, and broth in the same proportions as the overall soup.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.86,0:02:32.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,DR VINCENT HUTCHINGS: We want to make sure that the sample has
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.23,0:02:35.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the population characteristics that are
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.39,0:02:39.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,demonstrated in the larger population to which we want to make an inference.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.82,0:02:43.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,FEMALE NEWS PRESENTER: When reading a poll, it's important to also study the fine print,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.86,0:02:45.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,usually at the bottom.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.46,0:02:48.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'll find information there about how the poll was
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.12,0:02:51.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,conducted and what the size of the random sample was.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.38,0:02:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'll also find the margin of error,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.00,0:02:56.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a number with a plus or minus sign in front of it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.88,0:03:00.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This number tells you the range of accuracy of the poll.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.02,0:03:02.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In this case, 3-5% points.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.94,0:03:05.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Typically, the smaller the margin of error,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.58,0:03:07.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more accurate the poll is.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.73,0:03:12.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,DR VINCENT HUTCHINGS: What that means is that the number that's reported in that survey,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.02,0:03:15.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have a sense that given the size of the sample,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.78,0:03:19.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and given the level of uncertainty associated with that size,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.45,0:03:23.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the number could be 3-5% points higher or lower.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.76,0:03:25.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we know it's in that range.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.77,0:03:27.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,FEMALE NEWS PRESENTER: [MUSIC] Even though the polls rely on
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.44,0:03:30.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just a slice of the population to gauge public opinion,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.84,0:03:34.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they are far more accurate than you might think.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.92,0:03:39.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[NOISE] Which is one reason why they play such a special role in politics.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.88,0:03:43.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,DR VINCENT HUTCHINGS: Public opinion polls provide us with a way
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.90,0:03:49.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,absent an actual election to discern where the public stands on various issues.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.86,0:03:52.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,FEMALE NEWS PRESENTER: As election day 2012 draws closer,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.62,0:03:55.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the science of public opinion polls will help give
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.10,0:03:59.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a clear snapshot of who might be our next president.