[Script Info] Title: [Events] Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.27,0:00:01.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Instructor] What we're\Ngonna do in this video Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.92,0:00:04.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is talk about some interesting things Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.26,0:00:07.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have happened since\N2008, and in particular, Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.38,0:00:12.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're gonna talk about what\Nan ample reserves regime is, Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.06,0:00:15.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but even more importantly, what\Nits actual implications are Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.60,0:00:18.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how you can analyze\Nit with a graph like this. Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.30,0:00:20.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's just make sure we\Nhave our bearings first. Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.82,0:00:25.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the horizontal axis right\Nover here is reserve balances, Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.89,0:00:29.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then the vertical axis\Nhere is interest rates. Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.91,0:00:32.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So for the first part of this discussion, Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.01,0:00:35.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's ignore everything that\Nwe see in gray over here. Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.64,0:00:36.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what we're gonna talk about Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.72,0:00:39.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we talk about the\Nample reserves regimes. Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.18,0:00:43.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's say we're talking\Nabout a period pre-2008. Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.11,0:00:44.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in that situation, Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.88,0:00:48.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you could imagine the more\Nreserve balances you have, Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.72,0:00:52.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the lower the demand is\Nfor reserve balances, Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.35,0:00:54.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because if more banks\Nare sitting on reserves, Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.96,0:00:58.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well, then they don't\Nneed to go into the market Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.95,0:01:01.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and borrow reserves as much. Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.14,0:01:03.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so what you would naturally expect Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.45,0:01:08.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is as reserve balances\Nincrease, demand goes down Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.13,0:01:11.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and of course, the actual interest Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.58,0:01:15.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that people would need to\Npay in order to get reserves Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.51,0:01:17.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if they're running low would go down. Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.31,0:01:20.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, for example, let's\Nignore this red line here. Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.10,0:01:25.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's imagine a pre-2008 scenario\Nwhere the actual reserves, Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.77,0:01:28.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the supply of reserves looks like this. Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.44,0:01:31.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And of course, the Federal\NReserve can determine this Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.26,0:01:34.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by printing money,\Nincreasing its balance sheet Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.32,0:01:35.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or contracting its balance sheet. Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.70,0:01:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They can do that as they see fit. Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.00,0:01:40.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in this situation right over here, Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.68,0:01:43.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these are the total reserves\Nthat are in the system Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.71,0:01:45.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the Federal Reserve can decide. Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.66,0:01:50.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you have now a market\Nrate for overnight reserves. Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.27,0:01:52.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if a bank is running low, Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.71,0:01:54.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's say they had a lot of withdrawals, Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.12,0:01:56.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they need to meet their\Nreserve requirements back then, Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.73,0:01:59.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well, then they would go\Ninto the, quote, money market Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.91,0:02:03.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they would borrow some\Nof that money from a bank Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.09,0:02:05.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has excess reserves. Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.64,0:02:06.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you might be wondering, Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.81,0:02:09.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why does this curve, this\Nblue curve flatten out Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.57,0:02:11.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as you go further and further to the left? Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.64,0:02:13.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why doesn't it do something like this? Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.65,0:02:16.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the reserve balances are\Nlower, and lower, lower, Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.20,0:02:17.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'd think people would charge higher Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.67,0:02:21.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and higher interest rates\Nto land reserves overnight. Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.84,0:02:25.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, what puts a cap on\Nthis is the discount window. Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.35,0:02:27.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This primary credit rate, this is the rate Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.42,0:02:30.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that a bank in good\Nstanding, a strong bank, Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.24,0:02:31.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you also have a secondary credit rate Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.68,0:02:34.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for slightly weaker bank,\Nthat would be a higher rate, Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.14,0:02:35.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but this is essentially Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.22,0:02:37.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what banks can go to the Federal Reserve Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.44,0:02:39.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and borrow directly\Nfrom the Federal Reserve Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.69,0:02:41.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the discount window. Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.55,0:02:44.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that discount window\Nrate right over here, Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.25,0:02:47.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that essentially puts a cap on\Nthe overnight borrowing rate, Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.73,0:02:50.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a cap on the rate that\Na bank would have to pay Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.79,0:02:52.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in order to borrow reserves. Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.38,0:02:54.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so that's why you see the curve Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.54,0:02:57.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,essentially gets limited by that. Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.36,0:03:01.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But now let's think about\Nwhat happened in 2008, Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.47,0:03:04.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to understand that,\NI always get a kick Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.98,0:03:07.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,out of looking at the total\Nassets of the Federal Reserve. Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.62,0:03:10.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is essentially the Federal\NReserve's balance sheet. Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.35,0:03:12.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can view this as how much base money Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.60,0:03:14.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have put into circulation. Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.43,0:03:16.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I know these numbers are hard to read, Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.35,0:03:18.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so let me write it down for you. Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.15,0:03:21.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Out here, that is 2008, 2008. Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.79,0:03:26.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the rightmost point, Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.28,0:03:28.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we are about three fourths of the way Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.32,0:03:33.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through 2023 over here. Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.12,0:03:35.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you see something\Ninteresting happening Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.91,0:03:40.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,essentially a little\Nbit midway through 2008. Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.13,0:03:43.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The balance sheet increases significantly. Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.71,0:03:46.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We go from roughly 1\Ntrillion of base money Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.95,0:03:50.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to $2 trillion of base money. Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.52,0:03:52.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So essentially what the\NFederal Reserve was doing, Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.77,0:03:54.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they were taking this vertical line Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.75,0:03:58.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they were pushing it\Nfar to the right over here. Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.02,0:04:00.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you might think historically\Nwhy were they doing that. Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.90,0:04:03.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, some of you might\Nremember, we had banks failing. Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.96,0:04:05.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It had a financial crisis. Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.70,0:04:08.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They wanted to shore up not\Njust the banking system, Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.79,0:04:10.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but also the economy. Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.50,0:04:13.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the Federal Reserve just\Nstarted printing money, Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.65,0:04:16.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it put us into a new territory, Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.77,0:04:19.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a territory of ample reserves. Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.71,0:04:22.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's why it's called\Nan ample reserves regime. Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.83,0:04:24.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, there's an interesting\Nquestion, though. Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.81,0:04:27.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you go to a situation\Nof ample reserves, Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.12,0:04:28.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's essentially the situation Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.53,0:04:32.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we could imagine right over here, Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.55,0:04:35.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well, if you just had your\Ntraditional demand curve here, Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.43,0:04:38.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this curve would've just kept\Ngoing down and down and down. Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.37,0:04:40.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And essentially there's so\Nmuch reserves in the system Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.92,0:04:42.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the demand would go so low Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.66,0:04:44.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if a bank had access reserves, Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.34,0:04:46.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it would pretty much get\Nlittle to no interest Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.53,0:04:48.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on those reserves. Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.15,0:04:50.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that's a tough\Nsituation in and of itself Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.64,0:04:53.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because some of those banks\Nneeded that interest on reserves Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.22,0:04:55.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because, once again, they\Nwere all in a tough situation. Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.35,0:04:56.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And also, you want a situation Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.82,0:04:59.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where banks could probably\Nattract some depositors Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.22,0:05:01.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by hopefully giving some interest Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.26,0:05:03.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the depositors themselves. Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.15,0:05:05.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That also would strengthen\Nthe banking system. Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.73,0:05:08.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's when in this\Nample reserves regime, Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.94,0:05:11.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Federal Reserve did something else. Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.10,0:05:13.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They said, "Okay, banks,\Nit is no longer the case Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.74,0:05:15.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the only way that\Nyou could get interest Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.51,0:05:18.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on your reserves is by\Nlending it to other banks. Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.42,0:05:21.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're going to allow you\Nto take those reserves Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.09,0:05:24.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and deposit them with us,\Nwith the Federal Reserve, Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.87,0:05:28.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we will give you\Ninterest on those reserves." Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.20,0:05:31.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what this IOR is,\Ninterest on reserves. Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.89,0:05:35.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so if you are a banking institution, Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.28,0:05:39.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this essentially set up\Na floor on the interest Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.36,0:05:41.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you would get on your reserves. Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.94,0:05:44.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the question you\Nmight be wondering is, Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.46,0:05:45.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why doesn't this blue line then Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.93,0:05:48.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just flatten out right over there? Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.21,0:05:50.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in some more simplified diagrams, Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.58,0:05:52.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you will actually see that. Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.53,0:05:56.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it turns out that banks\Nare not the only participants Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.01,0:05:57.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the money market. Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.27,0:05:58.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You have other people Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.41,0:06:00.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are potentially\Nlending reserves to banks, Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.78,0:06:02.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they don't have access Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.52,0:06:05.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to depositing their reserves\Nwith the Federal Reserve. Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.19,0:06:07.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's not a floor on them. Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.23,0:06:09.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Federal Reserve\Nintroduced another rate. Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.30,0:06:12.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I won't go into the details\Nof what on RRP stands for. Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.33,0:06:14.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These essentially repurchase agreements. Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.49,0:06:17.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is essentially the\NFederal Reserve giving interest Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.19,0:06:21.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to non-banking institutions\Non reserves that they place Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.84,0:06:23.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the actual Federal Reserve. Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.79,0:06:27.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this places a hard floor,\N'cause even those folks, Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.96,0:06:29.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they would never wanna lend below this Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.46,0:06:31.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they could get that much interest Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.23,0:06:33.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the Federal Reserve. Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.33,0:06:35.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the next question\Nyou might be wondering is, Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.52,0:06:39.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all right, if we are out here\Nin this ample reserves regime, Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.99,0:06:43.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,traditionally the Federal\NReserve could change Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.26,0:06:45.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the federal funds rate, the target rate Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.57,0:06:48.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by moving this red line\Nto the left and the right. Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.54,0:06:51.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you're in a non-ample reserves regime, Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.18,0:06:54.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you move this red line to the left, Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.69,0:06:55.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well, what's gonna happen? Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.92,0:06:57.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're going to essentially increase Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.96,0:06:59.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the overnight borrowing rate, Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.91,0:07:02.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that would constrict the economy. Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.40,0:07:03.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you move it to the right, Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.96,0:07:06.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're going to decrease the\Novernight borrowing rate, Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.93,0:07:09.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that would stimulate the economy. Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.27,0:07:10.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you're out here on the right side, Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.92,0:07:14.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you move this vertical red\Nline to the right or the left, Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.22,0:07:16.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not going to change\Nthe overnight borrowing rate Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.68,0:07:18.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because you're essentially\Ngoing to be hugging Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.12,0:07:20.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this pretty flat blue line. Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.67,0:07:23.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And things have gotten\Neven more ample since 2008. Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.67,0:07:26.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We went from roughly 1\Ntrillion to 2 trillion, Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.25,0:07:30.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then out here we are getting,\Napproaching 8, 9 trillion. Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.24,0:07:32.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you might say, "Well, what\Nhappened right over here?" Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.40,0:07:35.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, that was the COVID\Npandemic, where, once again, Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.43,0:07:38.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Federal Reserve really\Nwanted to stimulate the economy, Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.16,0:07:41.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they did that by\Nprinting a ton of money. Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.58,0:07:45.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in the scenario that we've\Nbeen in for a while now, Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.18,0:07:48.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we are deep into an ample reserves regime. Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.09,0:07:50.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we were in ample reserves in 2008, Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.07,0:07:53.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're that much further\Nright now in the 2020s. Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.97,0:07:55.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So how does the Federal Reserve Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.38,0:07:57.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually control interest rates now? Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.72,0:08:00.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, what they can do is\Nthey can control these floors, Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.75,0:08:02.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or you could say this\Nfloor right over here. Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.94,0:08:05.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If they want to increase interest rates, Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.67,0:08:08.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they just increase the\Ninterest on reserves they give. Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.91,0:08:10.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if they do that, Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.08,0:08:13.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then the curve will look\Nsomething like this, Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.20,0:08:15.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then the overnight\Nborrowing rate will be higher, Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.72,0:08:18.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then, of course,\Nthat would be restrictive Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.03,0:08:20.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the economy, and if they wanna loosen, Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.34,0:08:24.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they can likewise lower\Nthe interest on reserves.