1 00:00:00,810 --> 00:00:06,350 So in a normal economy we know that employment 2 00:00:06,350 --> 00:00:09,250 will drive overall demand. 3 00:00:09,250 --> 00:00:12,690 If we have high employment or low unemployment, 4 00:00:12,690 --> 00:00:14,590 then people are going to have more jobs, 5 00:00:14,590 --> 00:00:15,920 and they're going to have higher wages, 6 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:16,970 and that will have higher demand. 7 00:00:16,970 --> 00:00:18,900 Or if the other way goes around, if they lose their jobs, 8 00:00:18,900 --> 00:00:21,430 demand is going to go down, wages will start to go down, 9 00:00:21,430 --> 00:00:24,030 and people aren't going to have money in their pockets. 10 00:00:24,030 --> 00:00:26,610 So employment drives demand. 11 00:00:26,610 --> 00:00:28,440 And we can view the demand-- and I'm 12 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:30,730 making a huge simplification here-- 13 00:00:30,730 --> 00:00:33,670 demand will drive production. 14 00:00:33,670 --> 00:00:36,280 Or maybe we could think of it as supply. 15 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:42,560 It'll drive supply, and it can also be a driver of price. 16 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:46,130 And of course, there is a little bit of a negative feedback 17 00:00:46,130 --> 00:00:47,800 loop for both of these things. 18 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:50,840 If the demand is high and the price goes high, 19 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,060 that might produce a little bit of negative feedback 20 00:00:53,060 --> 00:00:54,280 on the demand. 21 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,090 Instead of an arrow, this line here means negative feedback. 22 00:00:57,090 --> 00:00:58,970 I'll put a little negative sign here. 23 00:00:58,970 --> 00:01:01,860 And let's say the demand is high and then the supply goes high. 24 00:01:06,050 --> 00:01:07,550 Well actually, the supply going high 25 00:01:07,550 --> 00:01:10,110 would drive the price going down. 26 00:01:10,110 --> 00:01:13,130 So maybe I should draw a negative feedback like here. 27 00:01:13,130 --> 00:01:16,000 High supply would mean lower price. 28 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,360 But that's not what I want to focus on in that video. 29 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:20,360 And we could keep adding more lines here. 30 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,970 But this is roughly simple take on it. 31 00:01:22,970 --> 00:01:26,820 But the general idea is supply and price 32 00:01:26,820 --> 00:01:30,800 will then drive corporate profits, or just profits 33 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,300 in general, even for an individual business owner. 34 00:01:33,300 --> 00:01:38,850 And then profits are going to drive employment. 35 00:01:38,850 --> 00:01:40,390 Now, let's imagine a scenario. 36 00:01:40,390 --> 00:01:44,567 We are in a bad economy, maybe a depression-like economy. 37 00:01:44,567 --> 00:01:46,400 So in that situation, you could start really 38 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:47,590 at any point in this circle. 39 00:01:47,590 --> 00:01:49,100 I'll just start at employment. 40 00:01:49,100 --> 00:01:51,890 So let's say employment is really low. 41 00:01:51,890 --> 00:01:54,640 That's going to make demand really low. 42 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:56,700 And if demand is really low, then supply 43 00:01:56,700 --> 00:01:59,550 is going to go down, and price is going to go down. 44 00:01:59,550 --> 00:02:01,520 And then that's going to make profits go down. 45 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,400 And that's going to make employment even lower. 46 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,520 And so what we find ourselves in this kind of recessionary 47 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:09,570 or depression area environment, this 48 00:02:09,570 --> 00:02:11,525 would be called a deflationary spiral. 49 00:02:17,380 --> 00:02:19,300 And it's a spiral because a bad economy 50 00:02:19,300 --> 00:02:20,860 is driving lower prices, which is 51 00:02:20,860 --> 00:02:23,260 in turn driving a bad economy. 52 00:02:23,260 --> 00:02:25,680 And to make matters worse, if this continues long enough, 53 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,080 or if these price declines are severe enough, 54 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:29,690 you could imagine people saying, look, 55 00:02:29,690 --> 00:02:31,930 I have this dollar in my pocket. 56 00:02:31,930 --> 00:02:34,020 I'm not going to spend this dollar because, one, I 57 00:02:34,020 --> 00:02:37,570 might lose my job at any moment, and I 58 00:02:37,570 --> 00:02:39,810 know that that dollar is becoming more powerful, 59 00:02:39,810 --> 00:02:42,810 that I can buy more every minute that I wait. 60 00:02:42,810 --> 00:02:45,450 So as the price goes down, so as all of this scary stuff 61 00:02:45,450 --> 00:02:47,610 happens-- so the employment is going down, 62 00:02:47,610 --> 00:02:51,000 profits are going down, prices going down-- this 63 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:55,150 makes people not hoard goods the way 64 00:02:55,150 --> 00:02:57,420 that they would do in an inflationary spiral. 65 00:02:57,420 --> 00:02:58,670 But it makes them hoard money. 66 00:03:02,380 --> 00:03:04,870 And why it's ultra scary for central bankers 67 00:03:04,870 --> 00:03:06,580 or for governments is they start to not 68 00:03:06,580 --> 00:03:08,600 have as much control over the economy. 69 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:10,360 They can't just run the printing press 70 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,080 and try to stimulate the economy in this situation, 71 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,800 because if they did people are so conservative right now-- 72 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:17,300 You could imagine maybe a depression 73 00:03:17,300 --> 00:03:19,370 is going on for years and years and years. 74 00:03:19,370 --> 00:03:21,760 And let's say that they take some type of a helicopter-- 75 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,400 And this isn't how you actually distribute money to the money 76 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,472 supply, but it's just to show an extreme example. 77 00:03:27,472 --> 00:03:28,930 So they take a helicopter, and they 78 00:03:28,930 --> 00:03:30,440 start dumping cash on people. 79 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,030 They print cash, and they start dumping it on people. 80 00:03:33,030 --> 00:03:37,400 So every man, woman, and child in the country gets a $10 bill. 81 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:39,784 Well, if people are really scared and really afraid, 82 00:03:39,784 --> 00:03:41,450 they're just going to take that $10 bill 83 00:03:41,450 --> 00:03:42,810 and stuff it into their mattress, 84 00:03:42,810 --> 00:03:44,393 and it's not going to change anything. 85 00:03:44,393 --> 00:03:46,200 That dollar isn't going to actually enter 86 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:47,290 into the money supply. 87 00:03:47,290 --> 00:03:50,259 The velocity on it will be 0.