0:00:00.080,0:00:05.520
To win the trade war, the [br]CCP just needs one thing.

0:00:05.520,0:00:07.760
Welcome to China Uncensored. I’m Chris Chappell.

0:00:07.760,0:00:10.860
The US-China trade war has been going on for [br]three weeks now,

0:00:10.860,0:00:12.560
and you know what that means.

0:00:12.560,0:00:14.320
It’s time to panic!

0:00:14.320,0:00:19.600
If you go on X, you’ll see posts with millions [br]of views claiming that US ports are empty.

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That there are zero cargo ships.

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That you should panic buy rice and toilet paper.

0:00:28.480,0:00:31.017
Yes! Finally! My time has come!

0:00:31.017,0:00:35.368
I’ve [br]been hoarding toilet paper since 2020.

0:00:37.760,0:00:41.040
It’s made living in New York [br]City slightly challenging.

0:00:41.040,0:00:42.740
But it’s all worth it now.

0:00:42.740,0:00:45.360
Time to sell it all for profit!

0:00:45.360,0:00:47.680
Wait, what’s that, Shelley?

0:00:47.680,0:00:49.440
None of that is true?

0:00:50.000,0:00:54.560
Ports are not empty, and there are [br]definitely cargo ships heading to the US.

0:00:54.560,0:00:57.227
And people should not panic buy [br]rice,

0:00:57.227,0:00:59.360
which is grown in America,

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or toilet paper, which is made in America.

0:01:04.560,0:01:08.560
Fine, fine.

0:01:08.560,0:01:11.170
I guess if you start seeing toilet paper [br]shortages,

0:01:11.170,0:01:12.720
that’s not because of the trade war,

0:01:12.720,0:01:16.400
that’s because people got freaked [br]out by stupid social media posts.

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The vast majority of food [br]shouldn’t be affected, either.

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If you panic buy anything, [br]it should probably be things

0:01:22.320,0:01:25.440
like back-to-school supplies [br]and Christmas decorations.

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I’m not saying there won’t be shortages of [br]made in China stuff.

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There probably will be,

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but we won’t see that in stores [br]for weeks,

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or even months down the line.

0:01:33.640,0:01:36.706
Chinese products will also get more [br]expensive.

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But we don’t know how expensive.

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There’s a lot of uncertainty right [br]now, and a lot of fearmongering.

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Which is great for the Chinese [br]Communist Party.

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Because they need the Trump administration to back down on tariffs.

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And if the CCP can convince Americans they [br]should hate the tariffs,

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they might have a shot.

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I’ll tell you why the CCP wants this so badly [br]in a minute.

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But first, you know YouTube has been soft censoring this channel

0:02:02.406,0:02:05.840
, but you can [br]subvert YouTube’s censorship by subscribing

0:02:05.840,0:02:07.980
to our free weekly newsletter.

0:02:07.980,0:02:11.500
Each newsletter [br]has links to all our episodes each week,

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plus extra analysis you won’t see anywhere else—

0:02:14.522,0:02:16.019
and [br]it’s free.

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Sign up now. The link is below.

0:02:18.320,0:02:21.149
Ok, so the CCP wants the US to lower their [br]tariffs.

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Because if the tariffs continue at this level,

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China is going to [br]be much worse off than the US.

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Yes, US consumers will feel some pain.

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But [br]like I explained in a previous episode,

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China now more than ever depends on exports

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to [br]keep its economy going and people employed.

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That’s because the Chinese real estate market [br]has already collapsed.

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And that’s the other major driver of the Chinese economy.

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So they [br]NEED to export stuff. That’s all they have.

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Now, Goldman Sachs estimates that US tariffs

0:02:55.597,0:03:00.240
could endanger 16 million export jobs in China.

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And that’s probably on the low end.

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In a trade war, the country [br]that’s the bigger exporter

0:03:05.760,0:03:07.379
will generally be hit harder.

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And that’s China.

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Chinese workers are in even more trouble

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because [br]China’s been fighting deflation for years.

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China’s economy is in a deflationary spiral.

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That’s when prices fall, which means [br]companies can’t afford to pay people as much,

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so wages fall.

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And that means [br]people don’t want to buy stuff,

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so consumer demand falls, which means prices [br]fall even further.

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And it keeps on going.

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China’s been fighting deflation ever since [br]their disastrous Zero Covid policy.

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Turns out it's hard for businesses to survive when [br]everyone is locked inside their apartments.

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The real estate crisis also made deflation worse,

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because people’s savings were wiped out.

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And a bunch of people lost their jobs, too.

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The New York Times talked to a guy who [br]was a construction worker and a plumber.

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“When times were good, Mr. Wang said,

0:03:56.800,0:04:00.717
he could make as much as $13,600 a year.

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Now he’s lucky if he can make half that.”

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Think about that for a second.

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Even during [br]the good times, his income was several thousand dollars

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below the poverty line in the [br]US.

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Now he’s not even making half of that.

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So China’s economy is on shaky ground.

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And tariffs are making things worse,

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by endangering more Chinese jobs.

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But the Chinese Communist Party is digging in.

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And they’re really good at narrative warfare.

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I’ve shown you why China is going to be hit [br]harder by tariffs than the US.

0:04:32.730,0:04:37.201
So the trick is, the CCP needs to make Americans THINK

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they’re [br]the ones who will be hit harder instead.

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And to do that, the CCP is relying on the perception

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that Chinese people can [br]eat bitterness,

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but Americans can’t.

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Eating bitterness is the Chinese term for [br]enduring hardships.

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Basically, suffering.

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Chinese leader Xi Jinping has repeatedly told

0:04:56.800,0:05:00.880
the Chinese people that they need to eat [br]bitterness for the good of the nation.

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I talked in a previous episode [br]about how young Chinese people

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don’t seem quite as willing to eat [br]bitterness as previous generations.

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But in narrative warfare, that doesn’t matter,

0:05:10.400,0:05:12.375
as long as Americans THINK

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Chinese [br]people are willing to suffer more.

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Which is why China’s Foreign Ministry

0:05:17.010,0:05:20.080
is [br]releasing propaganda videos like this.

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“History has proven compromise won’t earn you mercy

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. Kneeling only invites more [br]bullying. China won’t kneel down.”)

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The rest of the video calls America [br]an arrogant imperialist,

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and shows China leading the world in solidarity

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against America over some heroic music.

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The message is clearly that America is the bad guy

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and it better give up, because China never will.

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That same message is being repeated [br]in the CCP’s domestic propaganda.

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Earlier this week, Beijing Daily [br]published an article called “

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Today, it is necessary to revisit On Protracted War.”

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On Protracted War was a series of speeches made by [br]Chairman Mao

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during the Sino-Japanese War in 1938.

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This Beijing Daily article is very [br]Marxist.

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It blames America’s problems

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on the capitalist system

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, it talks [br]a lot about dialectal materialism,

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and it repeatedly refers [br]to the “US-China struggle.”

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I’ve talked before about how “struggle” [br]or “douzheng”

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is the communist concept of

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designating an enemy and mobilizing the [br]entire society to “struggle” against it.

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In this case, the enemy is obviously the US.

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According to the article, “The [br]Party Central Committee

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had already anticipated the long-term [br]nature of the China-U.S. rivalry

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and proactively laid out plans for [br]future major power competition.”

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In other words, the CCP is in it for the [br]long haul.

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The gist of the article is

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warning that the US-China struggle will [br]not be over quickly,

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but that the CCP,

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sorry, “the people” will ultimately [br]win over the imperialist Americans.

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So that’s what the CCP is saying.

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But what’s [br]actually happening in China right now?

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Well, since it’s an authoritarian state [br]with total control

0:07:08.290,0:07:09.920
over its domestic media

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and a huge online censorship apparatus,

0:07:12.571,0:07:15.520
we’re [br]not going to get a totally clear picture.

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But we do know some things

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. And it [br]looks like the CCP is saying one thing,

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and doing another. What a surprise!

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First, you know that earlier this month,

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the [br]CCP put additional tariffs on US imports,

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in retaliation for US tariffs.

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But now, [br]it looks like the CCP is going to exempt

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some US products from those tariffs,

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because they really really need them.

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“Those products include certain semiconductors and

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chipmaking equipment, medical [br]products and aviation parts.”

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They could also exempt chemicals like ethane,

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which China uses to make a ton of plastics.

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Does that sound like a compromise,

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even though [br]the CCP swore they would never do that?

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Yeah, they’re going to be flexible with their [br]tariffs on US goods when they need to be

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—but they don’t want people to know about it.

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In fact, Caijing Magazine, which was [br]the first to report that China was

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going to exempt semiconductors,

0:08:08.790,0:08:10.240
seems to have been censored.

0:08:10.240,0:08:12.265
Meanwhile, Chinese export companies

0:08:12.265,0:08:14.720
are trying to survive the US tariffs.

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Some smaller factories are temporarily pausing [br]operations

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or even completely shutting down.

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(Others are trying to get around tariffs by using [br]transshipment—

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for example sending products to be assembled in countries like Cambodia

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and [br]Vietnam, which then get re-routed to the US.

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There are even reports of Chinese companies asking

0:08:33.200,0:08:37.520
Indian exporters to fill their [br]orders for their US customers.

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The idea is the Indian companies [br]would fulfill the orders,

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and pay the Chinese companies a commission.

0:08:43.280,0:08:47.760
And foreign companies are trying to move [br]their manufacturing out of China, too.

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For example, Apple is trying to [br]source all of its US iPhones

0:08:51.545,0:08:53.421
from India instead of China.

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And they’re [br]looking to do it as soon as next year.

0:08:56.560,0:08:59.520
The CCP isn’t a fan of that idea though.

0:08:59.520,0:09:04.520
CCP officials are trying to stop Apple [br]from moving their iPhone manufacturing equipment

0:09:04.520,0:09:09.040
out of China. Yeah, they’re [br]kind of taking machines hostage.

0:09:09.040,0:09:10.640
Well, that’s awkward.

0:09:10.640,0:09:13.840
Foreign clothing manufacturers are [br]also trying to get out of China.

0:09:13.840,0:09:16.390
Or even sending Chinese workers to [br]factories

0:09:16.390,0:09:18.400
in the Philippines or Vietnam.

0:09:18.400,0:09:21.380
And factory owners from Hong Kong and Taiwan

0:09:21.380,0:09:25.454
are trying to avoid physically being at their own factories in China

0:09:25.454,0:09:29.280
, because they’re worried [br]about being kidnapped by Chinese authorities.

0:09:29.280,0:09:31.470
Ok, so forget taking machines hostage.

0:09:31.470,0:09:34.560
People [br]are worried China will take people hostage.

0:09:34.560,0:09:36.160
Wouldn’t be the first time.

0:09:36.160,0:09:40.240
So doing business in China is like [br]staying at the Hotel California.

0:09:40.240,0:09:43.520
You can check out anytime you [br]like, but you can never leave.

0:09:43.520,0:09:47.377
Side note: I don’t know if it still is, but in [br]the early 2000s,

0:09:47.377,0:09:52.117
Hotel California was one of the most popular Western songs in China

0:09:52.117,0:09:53.583
. You could [br]not get away from it.

0:09:53.583,0:09:56.080
And I have no idea why.

0:09:56.080,0:09:57.140
Anyway, the point is,

0:09:57.140,0:10:00.160
Chinese factories are [br]trying to get their products out of China,

0:10:00.160,0:10:03.840
and foreign companies are trying to [br]get their factories out of China.

0:10:03.840,0:10:08.640
Which means, the US tariffs are…actually working.

0:10:08.640,0:10:12.320
At least in terms of decoupling [br]US manufacturing from China.

0:10:12.320,0:10:14.120
And that’s good news for Americans.

0:10:14.120,0:10:17.520
Because [br]we don’t want our economy to be held hostage

0:10:17.520,0:10:22.400
by a regime that will…literally hold [br]people hostage to get what they want.

0:10:22.400,0:10:25.493
Especially since the CCP also sees [br]America

0:10:25.493,0:10:27.840
as a threat to its survival.

0:10:27.840,0:10:29.784
And it’s not just me saying that.

0:10:29.784,0:10:33.040
Here’s [br]Cold War historian Professor Stephen Kotkin.

0:10:33.040,0:10:37.581
“The existence of the American [br]system ipso facto threatens

0:10:37.581,0:10:40.450
the survival of the Communist Party

0:10:40.450,0:10:45.920
because it's a [br]freer—it's an open, successful alternative.”)

0:10:45.920,0:10:50.080
Kotkin goes on to say that it doesn’t [br]matter what US policy is toward China,

0:10:50.080,0:10:54.800
the CCP will always see the [br]US as standing in its way.

0:10:54.800,0:10:58.160
That’s pretty clear from their [br]latest propaganda narrative.

0:10:58.160,0:10:59.760
“China won’t kneel down”)

0:10:59.760,0:11:00.809
So what happens now?

0:11:00.809,0:11:04.540
The CCP refuses [br]to back down, at least publicly.

0:11:04.540,0:11:06.940
But companies are actually leaving China

0:11:06.940,0:11:09.840
and China’s economy is getting wrecked.

0:11:09.840,0:11:15.520
Can the CCP actually force people to eat [br]bitterness and ride out the trade war?

0:11:15.520,0:11:19.326
Yes they can, because they’re an authoritarian state

0:11:19.326,0:11:23.360
. But that doesn’t mean there [br]won’t eventually be consequences.

0:11:23.360,0:11:26.800
Look at what happened during [br]the Zero Covid lockdowns.

0:11:26.800,0:11:30.080
Eventually Chinese people reached a breaking point

0:11:30.080,0:11:31.497
and started to protest.

0:11:31.497,0:11:35.040
Which is the [br]Communist Party’s worst nightmare.

0:11:35.040,0:11:37.264
The best case scenario for the CCP

0:11:37.264,0:11:40.880
is that [br]the US simply backs down from all the tariffs,

0:11:40.880,0:11:43.520
under pressure from various interest groups.

0:11:43.520,0:11:47.278
To do that, the CCP needs to convince [br]Americans that China

0:11:47.278,0:11:49.420
is too strong to get hurt,

0:11:49.420,0:11:52.400
and America is the one getting screwed.

0:11:52.400,0:11:56.560
In other words, China needs [br]to win the narrative war.

0:11:56.560,0:12:00.960
Which means these posts [br]are exactly what it needs.

0:12:00.960,0:12:03.143
And unfortunately the Trump [br]administration

0:12:03.143,0:12:05.880
doesn’t seem to be doing a good job of telling Americans [br]

0:12:05.880,0:12:09.680
why tariffs on China are important.

0:12:09.680,0:12:11.000
Maybe it’s just me, but

0:12:11.000,0:12:14.000
I don’t think we [br]should have a country that sees America

0:12:14.000,0:12:19.920
as its enemy making everything from [br]our children’s toys to our medicines.

0:12:19.920,0:12:21.311
But you know what they don’t make?

0:12:21.311,0:12:24.911
Our toilet paper. USA number…2!!!

0:12:28.240,0:12:29.616
And if you liked this episode,

0:12:29.616,0:12:32.960
remember [br]to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter

0:12:32.960,0:12:34.571
so you can see all of our episodes,

0:12:34.571,0:12:36.409
even when [br]YouTube doesn’t want you to.

0:12:36.409,0:12:38.240
The link is below.

0:12:38.240,0:12:41.120
Thanks for watching. I’m Chris [br]Chappell. See you next time.