WEBVTT 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [Christina] The most important thing that I try to pass on 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 is the sense that economics is an empirical field, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 then if you get new empirical evidence, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you're going to have to change the way 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you think about the economy. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I think being open to that 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 is the most important thing for a young economist to know. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Economists -- not a group 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 with a lot of Marys, Natashas or Juanitas, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and that's caused a lot of controversy. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 However, what's often overlooked are the actual female economists 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 who are pushing economics forward 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 by addressing real-world issues. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Welcome to Women in Economics. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 ♪ [music] ♪ 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I grew up in a family 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 where public policy was discussed a lot. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I was planning to be a lawyer, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 so I was going to major in Government. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And as part of the Government major at my college, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you had to take a year of Economics. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I was about three weeks in, and I was hooked, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 like the government major's gone, the lawyer's gone, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I was in an Economist. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Christina Romer is a macro economic historian. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 She takes the tools of modern economics, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 statistics, and data 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and applies them to historical questions. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [Narrator] Christy's researcher agenda throughout her career 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 has focused on a course set of topics 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 about economic fluctuations and business cycles. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 She's been asking and answering 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 fascinating questions about our economy, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 starting with her dissertation as a graduate student at MIT. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 There, she changed her understanding 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 of how the economy has grown over time. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I think the questions that came to me 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 were about monetary policy and business cycles 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and the Great Depression. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [Narrator] It was widely believed 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that government policies led to less fluctuations and unemployment 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 after World War II. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 However, the data before World War II was unreliable. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [Nancy] But Christy came up with the ingenious insight 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that while you couldn't clean up the historical data, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you could fuzzy up the more modern data, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and that's exactly what she did. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And when she did it, lo and behold, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 all these differences basically collapsed. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [Narrator] Amazingly, if she applied 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 the old techniques to the new data, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 the pose WOrld War II economy 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 looked just as volatile as the pre-World War economy. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 This contradicted the consensus 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 on the role of government stabilization policies. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Her research rattled the economic community. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It made a splash. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I remember one of the prominent economist MIT, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 his first reaction was, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 "Well, I'd be very upset about this if I believed it. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So I'm not going to believe it." 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Throughout her academic career, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Christine continued to challenge 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 her understanding of the Great Depression. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 As just one example, most economists believed 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 the Great Depression ended 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 because of higher government spending 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and investment in public works. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 She showed that the impact of those policies 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 were relatively small compared to 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 the monetary policy changes taking place. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [ ] Starting as soon as Roosevelt took the US off the gold standard 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 when he took office in 1933, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 over the next decade, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 there's just an enormous increase in money supply. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 What he showed was that 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that is what caused the very rapid growth that we had. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [Narrator] Christina's research has often focused on the effect 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 economic events have on people's everyday lives. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [ ] It's tough to manage to have new ideas on the same thing 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 again and again and again. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 One of the remarkable things 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 about Christy and David's research program 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 is that they have done that very successfully. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [Narrator] Over 35 years, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Christina has done meticulous research, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 frequently, with her collaborator and husband, David Romer. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [David] We'll have her paper, and I think it's almost done. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 We've worked really hard on it, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and each do one last read. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 She says, "You know, I think there's a logical tension 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 between where we end up in Section 4b 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and how we set out what we're going to do in Section 2a. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And I'm thinking, "Oh, no one's going to notice." 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And we spend weeks more on the paper because she's right. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And the paper gets much better. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [ ] One of the remarkable things about her work 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 is the coherence that spans literally her graduate school days 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and her work on her dissertation, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and connects up to some of her most recent work 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 on thinking about ways of identifying 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 turning points in the economy. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [Narrator] Christina's work would be put to the test 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 during the devasting crash of 2008, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 when the US economy was in free fall. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [Christina] We often describe the economy 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 as at the edge of a cliff. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Well, the truth is, we're not only at the edge of a cliff, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 we were headed down. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Financial markets were plunging, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and the risk of contagion from the US to the global economy 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 was v ery real. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 - [ ] Even people who'd see a lot 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 were really worried about what was happening. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Just as the nation was turning to President-elect Obama 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to confront the economic crisis, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 a mysterious email showed up in Christina'a inbox 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 with the subject line: "Obama Transition."