WEBVTT

00:00:00.382 --> 00:00:03.405
- [Christina] 我试图传递的
最重要的信息在于

00:00:03.405 --> 00:00:06.192 line:1
经济学是个实践领域

00:00:06.192 --> 00:00:08.580
如果你获得了新的一手证据

00:00:08.580 --> 00:00:10.799
你对此经济的看法

00:00:10.799 --> 00:00:12.820
就要改变

00:00:12.820 --> 00:00:15.240
我认为对于年轻的
经济学家来说

00:00:15.240 --> 00:00:18.023
对此持开放态度是最重要的

00:00:18.023 --> 00:00:19.583
♪ [音乐] ♪

00:00:19.583 --> 00:00:21.067
- [讲解员] 经济学家

00:00:21.067 --> 00:00:24.782
这个群体中
女性并不多见

00:00:24.782 --> 00:00:27.320
这引起了不少争议

00:00:27.320 --> 00:00:31.110
可是我们往往却忽略了那些
通过解决实际问题

00:00:31.110 --> 00:00:34.982
切实推动经济学
不断向前发展的女经济学家们

00:00:35.610 --> 00:00:40.128 line:1
欢迎收看
“经济学界的杰出女性”

00:00:45.507 --> 00:00:48.007
- [Christina] 我生长在一个

00:00:48.007 --> 00:00:51.295
经常讨论公共政策的家庭

00:00:52.374 --> 00:00:54.411
我本打算做个律师

00:00:55.547 --> 00:00:57.735
所以我选了政府管理专业

00:00:58.484 --> 00:01:01.405
在我们学院学习此专业

00:01:01.405 --> 00:01:03.383
必须先修一年的经济学

00:01:04.251 --> 00:01:07.250
大约三个星期
我就迷上了经济学

00:01:07.250 --> 00:01:11.037
什么政府管理，律师

00:01:11.037 --> 00:01:13.218
我成了经济学者

00:01:14.159 --> 00:01:17.518
-Christina Romer
是一位宏观经济史学家

00:01:17.909 --> 00:01:19.994
她采用现代经济学手段

00:01:19.994 --> 00:01:21.665
统计和数据

00:01:21.665 --> 00:01:24.326
并将其应用于历史问题上

00:01:25.553 --> 00:01:28.397
-[James] Christy
整个职业生涯的研究

00:01:28.397 --> 00:01:33.194 line:1
专注于有关经济波动
和商业周期

00:01:33.194 --> 00:01:35.807
这一核心主题

00:01:35.807 --> 00:01:38.002
- 从她的MIT研究生论文起

00:01:38.002 --> 00:01:40.803
就一直在质疑和解答

00:01:40.803 --> 00:01:43.226
有关经济的有趣问题

00:01:43.714 --> 00:01:45.384
在那儿，逐步地

00:01:45.384 --> 00:01:48.813
她改变了我们对经济的理解

00:01:49.515 --> 00:01:52.231
- [Christina] 我记得
我遇到的问题是

00:01:52.231 --> 00:01:55.352
货币政策和商业周期

00:01:55.352 --> 00:01:56.793
以及经济大萧条

00:01:58.140 --> 00:02:00.519
-人们普遍认为是政府政策

00:02:00.519 --> 00:02:02.225
减轻了二战后

00:02:02.225 --> 00:02:04.546
失业的波动性

00:02:05.018 --> 00:02:08.575
但是，二战之前的数据
是不可靠的

00:02:08.993 --> 00:02:11.737
- [Nancy] 但是Christy
提出了独到的见解

00:02:11.737 --> 00:02:14.801
虽然无法理清历史数据

00:02:14.801 --> 00:02:17.089
但可以对现代数据
建立模糊关系

00:02:17.089 --> 00:02:18.591
而这正是她所做的

00:02:18.591 --> 00:02:20.393
一旦这样做之后，瞧瞧

00:02:20.393 --> 00:02:23.329
所有那些差异
基本上都消失了

00:02:24.099 --> 00:02:25.739
-令人惊讶的是

00:02:25.739 --> 00:02:28.373
当她将旧方法应用于新数据

00:02:28.373 --> 00:02:30.042
二战后的经济看起来

00:02:30.042 --> 00:02:33.629
和二战前的经济一样动荡

00:02:34.266 --> 00:02:37.491
这与政府政策能稳定经济的

00:02:37.491 --> 00:02:39.036
共识相矛盾

00:02:39.557 --> 00:02:42.880
她的研究震惊了经济界

00:02:42.880 --> 00:02:44.347
-[David]这引起了轰动

00:02:44.347 --> 00:02:47.386
我记得当时
MIT 的一位经济学家

00:02:47.386 --> 00:02:49.062
他的第一个反应就是

00:02:49.062 --> 00:02:51.556
如果我相信这话
我会很沮丧

00:02:51.556 --> 00:02:53.604
所以我是不会相信的

00:02:53.906 --> 00:02:55.634
-在她的整个学术生涯中

00:02:55.634 --> 00:02:57.347
Christina继续挑战

00:02:57.347 --> 00:02:59.736
人们对大萧条的理解

00:03:00.674 --> 00:03:03.779
仅举一个例子
大多数经济学家认为

00:03:03.779 --> 00:03:05.296
大萧条的结束

00:03:05.296 --> 00:03:07.084
是由于政府支出的增加

00:03:07.084 --> 00:03:09.170
以及对公共设施的投资

00:03:10.623 --> 00:03:13.345
她指出，与货币政策的变化相比

00:03:13.345 --> 00:03:15.973
这些政策的影响力

00:03:15.973 --> 00:03:17.938
相对较小

00:03:18.603 --> 00:03:20.431
-[David]从罗斯福

00:03:20.431 --> 00:03:22.259
在1933年上任后

00:03:22.259 --> 00:03:24.512
使美国脱离了金本位制开始

00:03:24.512 --> 00:03:25.909
在接下来的十年中

00:03:25.909 --> 00:03:28.836
货币供应量大大增加

00:03:28.836 --> 00:03:30.256
她展示的是

00:03:30.256 --> 00:03:33.779
这才是导致我们
快速增长的原因

00:03:34.145 --> 00:03:37.091
- Christina 的研究通常集中在

00:03:37.091 --> 00:03:40.585
对人们的日常生活
有影响的经济事件上

00:03:41.023 --> 00:03:42.509
-[James]对同一事件

00:03:42.509 --> 00:03:44.588
一次次地有新的想法

00:03:44.588 --> 00:03:46.065
是件很难的事

00:03:46.065 --> 00:03:48.116
Christy和David研究项目的

00:03:48.116 --> 00:03:49.159
非凡之处在于

00:03:49.159 --> 00:03:51.245
他们非常成功地做到了这点

00:03:51.707 --> 00:03:53.250
-35年多以来

00:03:53.250 --> 00:03:55.712
Christina的研究细致入微

00:03:55.712 --> 00:03:59.392
很多时候，她与她的丈夫
David Romer一起合作

00:03:59.881 --> 00:04:02.291
-[David]在我们写论文时
我觉得差不多了

00:04:02.291 --> 00:04:04.684
我们为此已经付出了很多努力

00:04:04.684 --> 00:04:07.266
最后互相校对一遍

00:04:07.266 --> 00:04:10.871
她会说：我认为
在4b结束的地方

00:04:10.871 --> 00:04:13.977
和我们在2a中

00:04:13.977 --> 00:04:15.888
列出的工作方式之间

00:04:15.888 --> 00:04:18.053
不合乎逻辑

00:04:18.053 --> 00:04:20.939
我会想，哦
没人会注意到的

00:04:20.939 --> 00:04:26.196
我们又会花上数周的时间
因为她是对的

00:04:26.196 --> 00:04:28.792
论文的质量更高

00:04:28.792 --> 00:04:33.008
-[James]她杰出的贡献之一
是她工作的连贯性

00:04:33.008 --> 00:04:36.330
毫不夸张地说
从她学生时代的

00:04:36.330 --> 00:04:38.099
学术论文

00:04:38.099 --> 00:04:40.186
到最近，在经济中

00:04:40.186 --> 00:04:42.412
对确定转折点方法的观点

00:04:42.412 --> 00:04:43.933
都是相关的

00:04:45.821 --> 00:04:48.670
- 2008年，美国经济成了自由落体

00:04:48.670 --> 00:04:50.533
Christina的理论

00:04:50.533 --> 00:04:54.393
将在毁灭性的崩溃中经受考验

00:04:54.393 --> 00:04:56.671
-[Christina]我们经常
描述经济为

00:04:56.671 --> 00:04:58.850
在悬崖的边缘

00:04:58.850 --> 00:05:01.590
而事实是
我们不仅在悬崖的边缘

00:05:01.590 --> 00:05:03.032
我们已经掉进悬崖

00:05:03.032 --> 00:05:05.568
-金融市场暴跌

00:05:05.568 --> 00:05:08.891
从美国蔓延到全球经济的

00:05:08.891 --> 00:05:10.468
风险非常大

00:05:10.468 --> 00:05:12.412
-[James]连见过大世面的人

00:05:12.412 --> 00:05:14.833
都很担心到底发生了什么

00:05:14.833 --> 00:05:16.518
- 正当国家要求

00:05:16.518 --> 00:05:20.356
当选总统奥巴马
来解决经济危机时

00:05:20.356 --> 00:05:24.053
Christina的收件箱
出现了一封神秘的电子邮件

00:05:24.053 --> 00:05:26.496
主题行显示：“奥巴马转型”

00:05:26.496 --> 00:05:29.072
-[David]我得在这儿邀点功劳

00:05:29.072 --> 00:05:31.404
因为在Christina要删除它时

00:05:31.404 --> 00:05:34.140
我说：你至少谷歌一下那个人？

00:05:34.140 --> 00:05:35.883
她发现他是转型期

00:05:35.883 --> 00:05:38.553
经济方面的负责人

00:05:38.553 --> 00:05:40.578
-奥巴马政府

00:05:40.578 --> 00:05:42.909
想尽快与 Christina见面

00:05:42.909 --> 00:05:45.599
-[David]第二天
她坐飞机前往芝加哥

00:05:45.599 --> 00:05:47.390
会见当选总统

00:05:47.390 --> 00:05:49.092
-Christina应邀担任

00:05:49.092 --> 00:05:51.757
经济顾问委员会主席

00:05:51.757 --> 00:05:53.689
成立这个委员会

00:05:53.689 --> 00:05:55.698
是为了让学者参与决策过程

00:05:55.698 --> 00:05:58.067
并向总统提出建议

00:05:58.067 --> 00:06:00.857
- [Christina]我问
Rahm Emanuel

00:06:00.857 --> 00:06:03.237
请再告诉我一次
我是怎么得到这份工作的

00:06:03.237 --> 00:06:05.548
他说：您是大萧条方面的专家

00:06:05.548 --> 00:06:08.135
我们认为我们可能需要
一位这样的人

00:06:08.518 --> 00:06:13.210 line:1
- [Janet] 她试图了解
造成大萧条的原因

00:06:13.210 --> 00:06:14.970
如何结束的

00:06:14.970 --> 00:06:18.735
货币和财政政策
可以发挥什么作用

00:06:18.735 --> 00:06:21.922
没有人比她更解

00:06:21.922 --> 00:06:24.245
正确的策略

00:06:24.245 --> 00:06:26.931


00:06:26.931 --> 00:06:28.835


00:06:28.835 --> 00:06:31.406


00:06:31.406 --> 00:06:33.809


00:06:33.809 --> 00:06:36.181


00:06:36.181 --> 00:06:38.434


00:06:38.434 --> 00:06:40.336


00:06:40.336 --> 00:06:43.439


00:06:44.214 --> 00:06:45.875


00:06:45.875 --> 00:06:47.883


00:06:47.883 --> 00:06:50.804


00:06:50.804 --> 00:06:54.925


00:06:57.065 --> 00:07:00.102


00:07:00.102 --> 00:07:02.606


00:07:02.606 --> 00:07:06.496


00:07:06.496 --> 00:07:08.423


00:07:08.423 --> 00:07:10.102


00:07:10.102 --> 00:07:12.406


00:07:12.406 --> 00:07:14.843


00:07:14.843 --> 00:07:18.182


00:07:18.182 --> 00:07:20.286


00:07:20.286 --> 00:07:22.753


00:07:22.753 --> 00:07:26.136


00:07:26.136 --> 00:07:28.231


00:07:28.231 --> 00:07:29.395


00:07:29.395 --> 00:07:32.219


00:07:32.219 --> 00:07:35.626


00:07:35.626 --> 00:07:37.495


00:07:37.495 --> 00:07:40.298


00:07:40.298 --> 00:07:43.139


00:07:43.621 --> 00:07:46.526


00:07:46.526 --> 00:07:48.395


00:07:48.395 --> 00:07:50.149


00:07:50.149 --> 00:07:51.591


00:07:51.591 --> 00:07:53.120


00:07:53.120 --> 00:07:54.989


00:07:56.638 --> 00:07:58.600


00:07:58.600 --> 00:08:00.899


00:08:00.899 --> 00:08:02.611


00:08:02.611 --> 00:08:05.479


00:08:05.479 --> 00:08:08.018


00:08:08.018 --> 00:08:09.873


00:08:09.873 --> 00:08:13.318


00:08:13.785 --> 00:08:16.651


00:08:16.651 --> 00:08:18.144


00:08:18.612 --> 00:08:20.573


00:08:20.573 --> 00:08:23.364


00:08:23.364 --> 00:08:28.042


00:08:28.042 --> 00:08:30.278


00:08:31.598 --> 00:08:34.435


00:08:34.435 --> 00:08:36.507


00:08:36.507 --> 00:08:40.412


00:08:40.412 --> 00:08:44.067


00:08:44.067 --> 00:08:47.390


00:08:47.390 --> 00:08:48.526


00:08:48.526 --> 00:08:50.618


00:08:50.618 --> 00:08:53.529


00:08:53.529 --> 00:08:56.071


00:08:56.071 --> 00:08:58.282


00:08:58.282 --> 00:09:00.413


00:09:00.413 --> 00:09:02.348


00:09:02.348 --> 00:09:05.277


00:09:05.277 --> 00:09:06.557


00:09:06.557 --> 00:09:07.857


00:09:07.857 --> 00:09:10.027


00:09:10.027 --> 00:09:16.469


00:09:16.469 --> 00:09:17.954


00:09:17.954 --> 00:09:20.645


00:09:20.645 --> 00:09:22.314


00:09:22.314 --> 00:09:25.903


00:09:25.903 --> 00:09:29.392


00:09:29.392 --> 00:09:32.445


00:09:32.445 --> 00:09:33.822


00:09:33.822 --> 00:09:38.624


00:09:38.624 --> 00:09:42.691


00:09:42.691 --> 00:09:44.283


00:09:44.850 --> 00:09:46.729
♪ [音乐] ♪

00:09:46.729 --> 00:09:49.775


00:09:49.775 --> 00:09:53.128


00:09:53.128 --> 00:09:54.600


00:09:54.600 --> 00:09:57.500


00:09:57.500 --> 00:10:00.483


00:10:00.483 --> 00:10:03.213


00:10:03.213 --> 00:10:04.602