[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.90,0:00:01.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.80,0:00:05.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}- [Narrator] Welcome to \NNobel conversations.{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.30,0:00:10.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}In this episode, Josh Angrist \Nand Guido Imbens,{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.24,0:00:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}sit down with Isaiah Andrews{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.00,0:00:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}to discuss how the research\Nwas initially received{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.90,0:00:17.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}and how they responded \Nto criticism.{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.70,0:00:19.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the time, did you feel like\Nyou are on to something,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.40,0:00:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you felt like this was the beginning\Nof a whole line of work
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.00,0:00:27.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you felt like was going \Nto be important or...?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.60,0:00:30.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not so much that it was\Na whole line of work,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.10,0:00:32.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but certainly I felt like, \N"Wow, this--"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.60,0:00:34.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We proved something \Nthat people didn't know before,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.70,0:00:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it was worth knowing.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.00,0:00:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, going back compared to \Nmy job market papers having--
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.60,0:00:45.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I felt this was actually \Na very clear crisp result.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.40,0:00:48.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there were definitely \Nwas mixed reception
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.90,0:00:53.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I don't think anybody said that,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.30,0:00:56.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Oh, wow, this is already,\Nsomething."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.10,0:00:59.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No, which is the nightmare scenario\Nfor a researcher
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.30,0:01:03.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where you think you've \Ndiscovered something
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.30,0:01:04.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then somebody else says, \N"Oh, I knew that."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.00,0:01:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there were definitely was \Na need to convince people
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.00,0:01:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this was worth knowing,\Nthat instrumental variables
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.00,0:01:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,estimates a causal effect \Nfor compliers.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.20,0:01:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, but even though it\Ntook a long time
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.60,0:01:20.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to convince a bigger audience,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.70,0:01:24.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sometimes even fairly quickly, \Nthe reception was pretty good
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.80,0:01:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,among a small group of people.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.20,0:01:31.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gary, clearly liked it a lot \Nfrom the beginning
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.80,0:01:34.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I remember, because at that point\NJosh had left for Israel,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.70,0:01:37.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I remember explaining it \Nto Don Ruben
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.60,0:01:43.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he was like, \N"Yeah, this really is something here."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.80,0:01:47.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not right away though,\NDon took some convincing.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.50,0:01:48.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the time you got to Don,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.50,0:01:51.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there have been some back\Nand forth with him
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.80,0:01:53.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in correspondence actually.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.70,0:01:56.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I remember at some point \Ngetting a call or email from him
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.70,0:02:02.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saying that he was sitting \Nat the airport in Rome
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.50,0:02:03.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and looking at the paper \Nand thinking,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.70,0:02:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Yeah, no actually, \Nyou guys are onto something."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.00,0:02:09.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were happy about
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.80,0:02:10.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that took longer \Nthan I think you remember.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.80,0:02:12.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, it wasn't right away
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.60,0:02:13.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.70,0:02:16.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I know that I was back \Nin Israel by the time that happened.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.50,0:02:18.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd left for Israel in the summer--
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.40,0:02:22.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was only at Harvard for two years. \NWe had that one year.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.60,0:02:25.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is remarkable, I mean, that\None year was so fateful for us.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.90,0:02:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] Yes.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.50,0:02:30.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think we understood there was\Nsomething good happening,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.20,0:02:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but maybe we didn't think it was\Nlife-changing, only in retrospect.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.40,0:02:35.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.80,0:02:38.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Isaiah] As you said, it sounds like \Na small group of people
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.30,0:02:39.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were initially quite receptive,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.30,0:02:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,perhaps took some time for\Na broader group of people
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.40,0:02:46.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to come around to seeing \Nthe LATE framework
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.70,0:02:47.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a valuable way to look \Nat the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.70,0:02:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I guess, in over the course of that,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.10,0:02:52.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were their periods \Nwhere you thought,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.30,0:02:53.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe the people saying \Nthis wasn't a useful way
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.30,0:02:55.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to look at the world were right?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.80,0:02:58.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Did you get discouraged? \NHow did you think about?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.40,0:03:00.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't think I was discouraged\Nbut the people who were saying
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.90,0:03:03.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we're smart people, \Nwell informed metricians,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.00,0:03:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sophisticated readers
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.90,0:03:11.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think the substance\Nof the comment was,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.80,0:03:15.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is not what econometrics \Nis about.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.30,0:03:20.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Econometrics was being transmitted \Nat that time was about structure.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.30,0:03:24.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There was this idea that\Nthere's structure in the economy
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.10,0:03:27.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's our job to discover it
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.20,0:03:31.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what makes it structure\Nis it's essentially invariant
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.90,0:03:34.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so we're saying, \Nin the LATE theorem,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.90,0:03:39.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that every instrument produces\Nits own causal effect,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.30,0:03:42.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is in contradiction to that\Nto some extent
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.40,0:03:45.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so that was where the tension was.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.30,0:03:46.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People didn't want \Nto give up that idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.30,0:03:47.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, I remember once \Npeople were started
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.20,0:03:56.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,arguing more more vocally \Nagainst that,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.90,0:04:00.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that never really \Nbothered me that much.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.00,0:04:03.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It seems clear that \Nwe had a result there
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.90,0:04:08.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it was somewhat \Ncontroversial,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.10,0:04:09.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but controversial in a good way.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.10,0:04:10.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was clear that people felt
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.70,0:04:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they had to come out against it because--
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.10,0:04:17.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, I think what \Nwe think it's good now
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.50,0:04:20.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we might not have loved it \Nat the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.80,0:04:21.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember being somewhat,\Nthe more upset--
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.80,0:04:26.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there was some dinner \Nwhere someone said,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.70,0:04:28.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"No, no, that paper with Josh,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.80,0:04:32.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that was doing a disservice\Nto the profession."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.60,0:04:34.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We definitely had \Nreactions like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.80,0:04:38.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At some level, that may be \Nindicative of the culture
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.40,0:04:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in general in economics \Nat the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.40,0:04:44.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I thought back later, \Nwhat if that'd happened now,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.60,0:04:48.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if I was a senior person sitting\Nin that conversation,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.30,0:04:52.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I would call that out because it\Nreally was not appropriate--
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.00,0:04:54.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] But it wasn't so bad.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.60,0:04:57.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think the criticism is--
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.70,0:05:01.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't completely misguided, \Nit was maybe wrong.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.80,0:05:04.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No, no, but you can say \Nthe paper is wrong
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.40,0:05:07.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's saying that
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.30,0:05:08.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's a disservice \Nto the profession,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.30,0:05:09.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's not really--
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.30,0:05:10.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Personal.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.30,0:05:13.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, and doing that, not to me,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.90,0:05:14.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but in front of \Nmy senior colleagues.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.90,0:05:17.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But nobody was saying \Nthe result was wrong
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.70,0:05:18.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I remember also,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.70,0:05:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some of the comments \Nwere thought-provoking
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.90,0:05:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we had some negative reviews,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.40,0:05:26.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think on the average \Ncausal response paper.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.50,0:05:30.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somebody said, "These compliers\Nyou can't figure out who they are."
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.50,0:05:31.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.00,0:05:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's one thing to say
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.00,0:05:35.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're estimating \Nthe effect of treatment
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.20,0:05:36.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the treated \Nor something like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.20,0:05:38.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can tell me who's treated,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.60,0:05:42.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people in the CPS,\Nyou can't tell me who's a complier.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.80,0:05:46.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that was a legitimate challenge.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.80,0:05:47.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's certainly fair \Nand I can see why
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.80,0:05:53.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that part made people\Na little uneasy and uncomfortable.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.80,0:05:54.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.30,0:05:56.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's a at the same time
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.90,0:06:00.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it showed that you couldn't\Nreally go beyond that,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.50,0:06:05.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was very useful thing \Nto realize.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.50,0:06:06.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember on the day,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.50,0:06:11.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we got to the key result \Nthat I was thinking,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.10,0:06:12.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Wow, this is as good as it gets.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.10,0:06:16.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here we actually have an insight\Nbut clearly--"
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.50,0:06:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we had to sell it.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.00,0:06:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For quite a few years, \Nwe had to sell
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.00,0:06:24.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's proven to be quite useful.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.50,0:06:29.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't think we understood that it\Nwould be so useful at the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.10,0:06:34.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No, I did feel early on this was\Na substantial insight.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.60,0:06:35.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] Yeah we [learned] something.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.60,0:06:40.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I did not think \Ngoals were there.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.50,0:06:42.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't think we were aiming \Nfor the Nobel.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.65,0:06:43.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.90,0:06:46.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were very happy to get\Nthat note in {\i1}Econometrica.{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.60,0:06:48.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.90,0:06:52.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Isaiah] Are there factors \Nor are ways of approaching problems
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.20,0:06:55.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that lead people to be better \Nat recognizing the good stuff
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.60,0:06:56.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and taking the time to do it \Nas opposed to dismissing it?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.60,0:06:57.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] Sometimes \NI think it's helpful.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.70,0:07:00.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you're trying to \Nconvince somebody
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.90,0:07:01.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you have something \Nuseful to say
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.90,0:07:04.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maybe they don't \Nspeak your language,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.70,0:07:09.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you might need \Nto learn their language.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.30,0:07:10.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, yes, exactly.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.85,0:07:11.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what we did with Don,\Nwe figured out how to--
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.20,0:07:16.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember we had a very hard time
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.80,0:07:17.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,explaining the exclusion \Nrestriction to Don,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.80,0:07:19.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe rightfully so,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.00,0:07:24.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think Guido and I \Neventually figured out
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.40,0:07:25.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it wasn't formulated \Nvery clearly,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.40,0:07:28.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we came up \Nwith a way to do that
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.70,0:07:29.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the potential outcomes framework
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.70,0:07:32.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I think worked\Nfor the three of us.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.40,0:07:35.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, well, it worked for\Nthe bigger literature
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.80,0:07:38.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I think what you're saying \Nthere is exactly right,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.10,0:07:39.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you need to figure out \Nhow not just say,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.40,0:07:43.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Okay well, I've got this language\Nand this this works great
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.90,0:07:45.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I've got to convince someone\Nelse to use the language.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.90,0:07:47.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You could first figure out \Nwhat language they're using
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.60,0:07:51.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then only then, \Ncan you try to say,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.20,0:07:55.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Wow, but here you thinking of it \Nthis way,"
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.70,0:07:56.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that's actually \Na pretty hard thing to do,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.70,0:08:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,get someone from \Na different discipline,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.20,0:08:02.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,convincing them, two junior faculty\Nin a different department
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.30,0:08:03.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually have something \Nto say to you,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.30,0:08:06.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's that takes \Na fair amount of effort.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.50,0:08:10.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, I wrote on a number of times,\Nin fairly long letters.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.70,0:08:14.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember thinking \Nthis is worth doing,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.60,0:08:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if I could convince Don
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.45,0:08:19.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that would validate the framework \Nto some extent.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.30,0:08:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think both you and Don were
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.00,0:08:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a little bit more confident \Nthat you were right.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.00,0:08:27.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, we used to argue a lot
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.50,0:08:28.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you would sometimes \Nreferee those.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.50,0:08:29.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.80,0:08:30.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That was fun.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.80,0:08:34.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't hurtful.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.20,0:08:39.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember getting \Na little testy once,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.60,0:08:40.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we had lunch in The Faculty Club
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.60,0:08:44.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're talking about \Nthe draft lottery paper.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.20,0:08:47.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were talking about never takes
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.70,0:08:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as people wounded serve \Nin the military irrespective of
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.20,0:08:53.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they were getting drafted
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.50,0:08:58.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you and Don said something\Nabout shooting yourself in the foot,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.80,0:09:02.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a way of getting out of the military
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.40,0:09:03.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that may be \Nthe exclusion restriction
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.40,0:09:05.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for never takes wasn't working
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.30,0:09:08.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then the other one would say,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.90,0:09:11.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, yes you could do that
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.25,0:09:12.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but why would you want \Nto shoot yourself in the foot?"
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.25,0:09:12.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.82,0:09:13.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It got a little [out of hand] there.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.40,0:09:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I usually go for moving to Canada,\Nfor my example,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.15,0:09:19.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I'm teaching that.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.70,0:09:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But he thinks it's tricky,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.10,0:09:27.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I get students coming\Nfrom computer science
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.10,0:09:29.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they want to do things \Non causal inference
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.40,0:09:33.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it takes a huge amount \Nof effort to figure out
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.70,0:09:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how they actually thinking \Nabout problem
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.00,0:09:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and whether there's something there
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.00,0:09:38.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so, now over the years,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.50,0:09:40.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've got a little more appreciation\Nfor the fact
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.80,0:09:42.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Don was actually willing to--
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.20,0:09:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It took him a while, \Nbut he did engage first with Josh
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.40,0:09:47.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then with both of us
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.70,0:09:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and rather than dismissing\Nand say,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.50,0:09:54.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, okay I can't figure out\Nwhat these guys are doing
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.80,0:09:55.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's probably just \Nnot really interesting."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.20,0:10:00.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Everybody always wants \Nto figure out quickly,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.30,0:10:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you want to save time
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.00,0:10:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you want to save your brain cells\Nfor other things.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.00,0:10:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The fastest route to \Nthat is to figure out
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.00,0:10:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why you should dismiss something.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.00,0:10:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.00,0:10:11.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't need to spend time on this.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.50,0:10:12.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.70,0:10:15.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}- [Narrator] If you'd like \Nto watch more {\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.30,0:10:16.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}Nobel conversations, click here,{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.30,0:10:18.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}or if you'd like to learn\Nmore about econometrics,{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.70,0:10:21.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}check out Josh's "Mastering\NEconometrics" series.{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.80,0:10:24.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}If you'd like to learn more\Nabout Guido, Josh, and Isaiah{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.90,0:10:26.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}check out the links \Nin the description.{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.70,0:10:28.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪