[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.90,0:00:02.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.80,0:00:05.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}- [Narrator] Welcome to \NNobel conversations.{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.30,0:00:10.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}In this episode, Josh Angrist \Nand Guido Imbens,{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.24,0:00:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}sit down with Isaiah Andrews{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.00,0:00:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}to discuss how the research\Nwas initially received{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.90,0:00:17.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}and how they responded \Nto criticism.{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.70,0:00:21.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the time, did you feel like\Nyou are on to something,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.54,0:00:25.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you felt this was the beginning\Nof a whole line of work
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.15,0:00:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you felt like was going \Nto be important or...?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.60,0:00:30.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not so much that it was\Na whole line of work,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.10,0:00:32.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but certainly I felt like, \N"Wow, this--"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.42,0:00:35.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] We proved something \Nthat people didn't know before,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.04,0:00:36.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it was worth knowing.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.43,0:00:41.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, going back compared to \Nmy job market papers having--
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.60,0:00:45.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I felt this was actually \Na very clear crisp result.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.40,0:00:49.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there were definitely \Nwas mixed reception
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.53,0:00:52.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I don't think anybody \Nsaid that,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.42,0:00:55.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Oh, wow, this is already,\Nsomething."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.46,0:00:59.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No, which is the nightmare scenario\Nfor a researcher
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.30,0:01:02.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where you think you've \Ndiscovered something
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.28,0:01:04.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then somebody else says, \N"Oh, I knew that."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.00,0:01:07.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there were definitely was \Na need to convince people
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.43,0:01:10.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this was worth knowing,\Nthat instrumental variables
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.37,0:01:12.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,estimates a causal effect \Nfor compliers.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.20,0:01:16.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, but even though it\Ntook a long time
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.18,0:01:19.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to convince a bigger audience,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.82,0:01:24.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sometimes even fairly quickly, \Nthe reception was pretty good
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.80,0:01:26.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,among a small group of people.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.20,0:01:31.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gary, clearly liked it a lot \Nfrom the beginning
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.80,0:01:35.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I remember, because at that point\NJosh had left for Israel,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.64,0:01:38.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I remember explaining it \Nto Don Ruben
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.70,0:01:43.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he was like, \N"Yeah, this really is something here."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.70,0:01:47.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not right away though,\NDon took some convincing.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.50,0:01:49.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the time you got to Don,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.21,0:01:51.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there have been some back\Nand forth with him
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.23,0:01:53.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in correspondence actually.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.70,0:01:57.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I remember at some point \Ngetting a call or email from him
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.10,0:02:00.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saying that he was sitting \Nat the airport in Rome
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.02,0:02:03.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and looking at the paper \Nand thinking,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.70,0:02:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Yeah, no actually, \Nyou guys are onto something."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.49,0:02:08.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were happy about
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.74,0:02:10.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that took longer \Nthan I think you remember.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.80,0:02:12.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, it wasn't right away
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.50,0:02:13.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.70,0:02:16.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I know that I was back \Nin Israel by the time that happened.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.50,0:02:18.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd left for Israel in the summer--
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.39,0:02:22.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was only at Harvard for two years.\NWe had that one year.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.60,0:02:25.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is remarkable, I mean, that\None year was so fateful for us.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.90,0:02:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] Yes.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.69,0:02:30.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think we understood there was\Nsomething good happening,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.20,0:02:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but maybe we didn't think it was\Nlife-changing, only in retrospect.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.00,0:02:35.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.72,0:02:37.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Isaiah] As you said, it sounds like \Na small group of people
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.50,0:02:39.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were initially quite receptive,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.19,0:02:42.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,perhaps took some time for\Na broader group of people
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.09,0:02:46.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to come around to seeing \Nthe LATE framework
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.02,0:02:47.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a valuable way to look \Nat the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.70,0:02:50.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I guess, in over the course of that,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.10,0:02:51.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were their periods \Nwhere you thought,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.89,0:02:54.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe the people saying \Nthis wasn't a useful way
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.29,0:02:55.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to look at the world were right?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.75,0:02:58.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Did you get discouraged? \NHow did you think about?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.40,0:03:00.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't think I was discouraged\Nbut the people who were saying
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.90,0:03:05.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we're smart people, \Nwell informed econometricians,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.90,0:03:07.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sophisticated readers
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.90,0:03:11.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think the substance\Nof the comment was,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.80,0:03:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is not what econometrics \Nis about.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.30,0:03:20.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Econometrics was being transmitted \Nat that time was about structure.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.30,0:03:24.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There was this idea that\Nthere's structure in the economy
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.10,0:03:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's our job to discover it
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.20,0:03:30.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what makes it structure\Nis it's essentially invariant
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.90,0:03:34.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so we're saying, \Nin the LATE theorem,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.90,0:03:37.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that every instrument produces\Nits own causal effect,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.70,0:03:41.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is in contradiction to that\Nto some extent
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.39,0:03:43.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so that was \Nwhere the tension was.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.80,0:03:45.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People didn't want \Nto give up that idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.30,0:03:50.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, I remember once \Npeople were started
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.20,0:03:55.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,arguing more more vocally \Nagainst that,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.90,0:03:59.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that never really \Nbothered me that much.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.48,0:04:03.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It seemed clear that \Nwe had a result there
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.05,0:04:06.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it became somewhat \Ncontroversial,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.05,0:04:08.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but controversial in a good way.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.62,0:04:10.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was clear that people felt
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.70,0:04:13.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they had to come out against it \Nbecause--
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.97,0:04:15.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, I think what \Nwe think it's good now
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.43,0:04:19.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we might not have loved it \Nat the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.17,0:04:22.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember being somewhat,\Nthe more upset--
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.98,0:04:24.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there was some dinner \Nwhere someone said,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.91,0:04:27.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"No, no, that paper with Josh,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.66,0:04:30.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that was doing a disservice\Nto the profession."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.05,0:04:33.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We definitely had \Nreactions like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.41,0:04:38.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At some level, that may be \Nindicative of the culture
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.40,0:04:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in general in economics \Nat the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.40,0:04:44.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I thought back later, \Nwhat if that'd happened now,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.60,0:04:47.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if I was a senior person sitting\Nin that conversation,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.30,0:04:51.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I would call that out because it\Nreally was not appropriate--
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.00,0:04:54.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] It wasn't so bad.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.60,0:04:56.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think the criticism is--
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.70,0:04:59.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't completely misguided,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.21,0:05:01.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was maybe wrong.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.80,0:05:04.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No, no, but you can say \Nthe paper is wrong
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.40,0:05:06.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's saying that
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.60,0:05:08.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's a disservice \Nto the profession,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.13,0:05:09.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's not really--
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.30,0:05:10.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Personal.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.30,0:05:12.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, and doing that, not to me,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.65,0:05:14.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but in front of \Nmy senior colleagues.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.39,0:05:17.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But nobody was saying \Nthe result was wrong
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.49,0:05:18.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I remember also,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.70,0:05:21.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some of the comments \Nwere thought-provoking
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.70,0:05:23.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we had some negative reviews,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.16,0:05:25.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think on the average \Ncausal response paper.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.50,0:05:30.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somebody said, "These compliers\Nyou can't figure out who they are."
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.45,0:05:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right, it's one thing to say
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.00,0:05:35.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're estimating \Nthe effect of treatment
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.04,0:05:36.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the treated \Nor something like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.79,0:05:38.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can tell me who's treated,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.70,0:05:42.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people in the CPS,\Nyou can't tell me who's a complier.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.93,0:05:44.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that was a legitimate challenge.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.68,0:05:47.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's certainly fair \Nand I can see why
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.88,0:05:53.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that part made people\Na little uneasy and uncomfortable.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.30,0:05:56.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But at the same time
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.90,0:06:00.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it showed that you couldn't\Nreally go beyond that,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.80,0:06:03.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was very useful thing \Nto realize.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.63,0:06:06.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember on the day,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.50,0:06:09.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we got to the key result \Nthat I was thinking,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.91,0:06:14.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Wow, this is as good as it gets.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.22,0:06:16.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here we actually have an insight\Nbut clearly--"
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.50,0:06:19.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we had to sell it \Nat some point.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.76,0:06:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For quite a few years, \Nwe had to sell it
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.48,0:06:24.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's proven to be quite useful.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.50,0:06:28.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't think we understood that\Nit would be so useful at the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.76,0:06:29.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.17,0:06:34.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I did feel early on this was\Na substantial insight.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.60,0:06:36.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] Yeah we [did] something.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.44,0:06:40.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I did not think \Ngoals were there.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.50,0:06:42.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't think we were aiming \Nfor the Nobel.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.65,0:06:43.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.73,0:06:46.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were very happy to get\Nthat note in {\i1}Econometrica.{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.86,0:06:48.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.90,0:06:51.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Isaiah] Are there factors \Nor are ways of approaching problems
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.50,0:06:54.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that lead people to be better \Nat recognizing the good stuff
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.35,0:06:56.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and taking the time to do it \Nas opposed to dismissing it?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.60,0:06:57.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] Sometimes \NI think it's helpful.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.70,0:06:59.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you're trying to \Nconvince somebody
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.70,0:07:01.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you have something \Nuseful to say
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.90,0:07:04.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maybe they don't \Nspeak your language,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.89,0:07:06.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you might need \Nto learn their language.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.76,0:07:08.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, yes, exactly.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.02,0:07:11.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what we did with Don,\Nwe figured out how to--
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.74,0:07:14.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember we had a very hard time
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.05,0:07:15.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,explaining the exclusion \Nrestriction to Don,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.43,0:07:18.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe rightfully so,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.80,0:07:22.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think Guido and I \Neventually figured out
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.51,0:07:24.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it wasn't formulated \Nvery clearly,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.40,0:07:27.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we came up \Nwith a way to do that
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.45,0:07:29.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the potential outcomes framework
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.46,0:07:32.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I think worked\Nfor the three of us.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.22,0:07:33.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.42,0:07:35.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, it worked for\Nthe bigger literature
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.54,0:07:37.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I think what you're saying \Nthere is exactly right,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.75,0:07:41.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you need to figure out \Nhow not just say,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.08,0:07:43.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Okay well, I've got this language\Nand this this works great
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.89,0:07:45.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I've got to convince someone\Nelse to use the language.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.90,0:07:48.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You could first figure out \Nwhat language they're using
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.68,0:07:50.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then only then, \Ncan you try to say,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.74,0:07:53.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Wow, but here you thinking of it \Nthis way,"
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.27,0:07:56.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that's actually \Na pretty hard thing to do,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.88,0:07:59.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you get someone from \Na different discipline,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.27,0:08:02.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,convincing them, two junior faculty\Nin a different department
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.30,0:08:04.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually have something \Nto say to you,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.37,0:08:06.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's that takes \Na fair amount of effort.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.50,0:08:10.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, I wrote Don \Na number of times,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.24,0:08:12.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in fairly long letters.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.05,0:08:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember thinking \Nthis is worth doing,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.60,0:08:16.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if I could convince Don
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.78,0:08:19.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that would validate the framework \Nto some extent.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.30,0:08:23.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think both you and Don were
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.17,0:08:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a little bit more confident \Nthat you were right.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.00,0:08:26.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, we used to argue a lot
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.44,0:08:28.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you would sometimes \Nreferee those.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.50,0:08:29.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.80,0:08:30.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That was fun.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.58,0:08:33.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't hurtful.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.20,0:08:37.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember it getting \Na little testy once,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.94,0:08:40.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we had lunch in The Faculty Club
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.60,0:08:44.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're talking about \Nthe draft lottery paper.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.93,0:08:47.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were talking about never takes
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.70,0:08:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as people wounded serve \Nin the military irrespective of
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.00,0:08:53.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they were getting drafted
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.50,0:08:58.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you or Don said something\Nabout shooting yourself in the foot,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.80,0:09:01.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a way of getting \Nout of the military
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.53,0:09:03.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that may be \Nthe exclusion restriction
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.40,0:09:05.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for never takes wasn't working
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.30,0:09:08.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then the other one would say,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.56,0:09:09.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, yes you could do that
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.95,0:09:12.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but why would you want \Nto shoot yourself in the foot?"
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.13,0:09:13.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.22,0:09:15.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It got a little [out of hand] there.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:15.40,0:09:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I usually go for moving to Canada,\Nfor my example,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.69,0:09:20.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I'm teaching that.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.03,0:09:24.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But things are tricky,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.86,0:09:26.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I get students coming\Nfrom computer science
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.60,0:09:29.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they want to do things \Non causal inference
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.40,0:09:33.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it takes a huge amount \Nof effort to figure out
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.46,0:09:35.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how they actually thinking \Nabout problem
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.23,0:09:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and whether there's something there
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.00,0:09:38.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so, now over the years,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.31,0:09:40.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've got a little more appreciation\Nfor the fact
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.25,0:09:41.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Don was actually willing to--
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.20,0:09:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It took him a while, \Nbut he did engage first with Josh
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.40,0:09:47.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then with both of us
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.38,0:09:50.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and rather than dismissing\Nand say,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.41,0:09:53.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Okay, well I can't figure out\Nwhat these guys are doing
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.37,0:09:56.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's probably just \Nnot really that interesting."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.20,0:09:59.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Everybody always wants \Nto figure out quickly,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.74,0:10:01.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you want to save time
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.38,0:10:04.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you want to save your brain cells\Nfor other things.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.00,0:10:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The fastest route to \Nthat is to figure out
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.00,0:10:08.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why you should dismiss something.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.46,0:10:09.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.56,0:10:11.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't need to spend time on this.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.30,0:10:12.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.67,0:10:14.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}- [Narrator] If you'd like \Nto watch more {\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.07,0:10:15.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}Nobel conversations, click here,{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.30,0:10:18.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}or if you'd like to learn\Nmore about econometrics,{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.70,0:10:21.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}check out Josh's "Mastering\NEconometrics" series.{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.80,0:10:24.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}If you'd like to learn more\Nabout Guido, Josh, and Isaiah{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.86,0:10:26.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}check out the links \Nin the description.{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.70,0:10:28.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪