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[Tyler] So Alex, we're economists.
Often people ask me,

well what is it that we know about
investment and investment advice anyway?

Now, we've already talked about equities,

but as economists do we have
anything else to tell people?

[Alex] Let's talk a little bit about housing,

because housing is one of these areas
where there's a lot of myths around it.

People in America,
it's part of the American Dream.

And one thing I think people don't
realize is that over the long run,

house prices are certainly
not guaranteed to go up.

I mean we saw in the financial crisis
that house prices came way down.

But there's still this kind of idea
that people have in their heads

that they're not making any more land,

so in the long run
house prices have to go up.

And we know from our
understanding of assets

that you should not expect your house
to be a great financial investment.

But isn't there a tax reason
to buy a home?

So if I borrow money for a mortgage,

and I'm paying income tax
and itemizing my deductions,

I can write off a lot of that mortgage
interest and get some of the money back.

And that means

it could be cheaper or more advantageous
to buy the home because of taxes.

But don't forget,

a lot of that tax advantage is going
to be captured not by the buyer,

but by the seller.

What the tax advantage means is
it pushes up the prices of homes.

It's already built into a higher price,

so you, as the buyer, don't always
get that gain. Often it's the seller.

Well, but think of this
in terms of elasticity.

Say I live in an area, like
many parts of Texas or Florida,

where I get this tax break that
increases the demand for homes, yes.

But then suppliers build more homes and
they drive the price back down again.

And it seems that
in a lot of states actually,

the buyer should be reaping a lot
of that tax break. Yes, No?

If only there were more places
in the United States like that,

I would tend to agree.

But one of the big problems we have
in the United States today is that

the demand for housing goes up
and you're in some place

like San Francisco, or New York, or Boston

where it's impossible
to get permits to build more housing.

And when the demand goes up,

all that means is
the price of the house goes up.

So all of those gains, whether
it's from the tax system,

or whether it's from people
wanting to move to San Francisco,

all of those gains go to the land owners.

And that's actually a big problem
we have in the United States today.

But I do see a stability reason
to own a home.

Say you're 37 years old,
you have 2 kids in school,

you want them to go to a
good high school district.

You don't want to be told,
"You're going to have to move."

You want to arrange your backyard
the way you see fit.

And you don't want to have to renegotiate
a rent contract.

All of those factors militate
in favor of buying a home.

So I think you're right for those people.

But one thing you've got to keep in mind
is that on average,

houses are not going to be
a great financial investment.

So you have to be exactly
one of those people

who wants extra stability,
more stability than the average person.

That's when you're going to gain
from buying a house.

And, keep in mind,

that when you buy a house and
that heating system collapses

and you've got to repair that,
that's a big problem.

When you're hit by a lightning strike
and you've got to repair the roof,

that's a big expense as well.

So when people say, "I'm only
worried about the rent going up."

Well that's fine.

They may be worried about that,
but don't forget,

you've got to be worried about replacing
the roof every 20 years, as well.

So it's really a marginal question,
you're saying. Like at the margin,

do you need the tax break
more than the typical buyer?

At the margin,

do you value the good high school district
more than the typical buyer?

And at the margin,

are you better at fixing the broken roof

or hiring someone to do it
than the average buyer?

And those things may or
may not apply to you,

but that's the right way
to think about it?

Exactly right, so if you
want that tax advantage,

you've got to be earning
more income than average.

You've got to be
itemizing your deductions.

If you're not one of those people
in the upper middle class,

you're not going to get
that tax advantage.

If you've got one kid, maybe
the school is not so important.

Maybe you have to have two

before you really get that
advantage from the schooling.

So yeah, you've got to be thinking about
how you're different from the average.

If you really want to buy a home,
you've got to love buying a home.

I think of people as needing
to save more typically,

that we're programmed to think about
the here and now,

we're a bit impatient.

Perhaps we haven't evolved to think well
enough about the more distant future.

If you buy a home,

pay off your mortgage at the end of 30,
or one hopes 15 years, you own something.

In the meantime, you're saving.

and you get into a routine that
doesn't even feel like saving.

It's more savings than if you're
writing a rent check every month.

So maybe it's our own imperfections.

We need to lock ourselves
into a higher savings regime,

and that's another possible reason
to buy a home.

Yeah, I do think the forth savings
argument has got something to it.

But there's a big problem, especially
in the United States today,

and that is there's such an encouragement
to buy houses with no money down,

even after the financial crisis.

If you really are concerned about savings,

the key point is to have a 20% down
payment. So save up for that down payment.

And that is really what is going to be

the forth savings aspect
of buying the house.

You know, I think the biggest piece
of advice I'd give to people

is just to be on that
wealthier side of the equation,

so that owning a home
makes sense for you.

Don't forget our earlier investment
rule: Diversify, diversify, diversify.

And yet, when it comes to housing,

people are encouraged to put a huge
amount of their wealth into one asset,

in one place in the country.

That could be a terrible decision.

If you're in a small town
with only one employer,

and you have a house and
that employer goes bust,

well your house price is going to fall,

you might lose your job,
your income is all going to fall,

and it's all going to be
happening concentrated,

all in one place all at one time.

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