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♪ [音乐] ♪

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亚历克斯, 咱们都是经济学家
人们经常问我

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经济学家到底对投资和投资建议,
有多少了解呢?

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我们已经讨论过了股票这个话题

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但是作为经济学家,
咱们还能告诉人们些什么呢?

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今天我们来讨论下住房问题

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因为住房这个话题广受争议

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对于美国人来说,
房子是美国梦的一部分

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我觉得人们没有意识到的一点是,
长期来讲

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房价绝对不保证会提升

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我们目睹了房价在经济危机中下跌

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但是人们还是执守着一种信念

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就是土地肯定不会增多

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所以长期来讲房价肯定会涨

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从我们对资产的了解来看

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人们不应该把房子看成是一大笔投资

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但是从税收角度讲,
买房不是个好主意吗?

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假如我贷款买房

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也在付收入税
并且计算我的列举扣税额度

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这样我就能甩掉贷款利息
拿回一些钱

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这就意味着

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因为税的原因来买房
可能更便宜或有更多优势

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但是别忘了

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很多退税优势都不会被买家所得

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而是被卖方占到

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退税优势反而造成房价上涨

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已经被包含在更高的房价中

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所以买方不是总能得到好处
通常是卖方占便宜

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可以用弹性理论来解释

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假设我住在一个地区,
类似得克萨斯或者佛罗里达的很多地方


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这个地方的退税优势促进了买房需求

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接着供应商盖更多的房
造成房价再次下跌

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目前看来, 在很多州

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买家应该通过退税盈利多多
对吗?

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如果美国有更多类似的地方

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我会倾向于赞同

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但是在当今美国我们面临的
最大问题之一是

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买房需求上涨
但是买家却住在

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像旧金山, 纽约或者波士顿之类的城市

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在这些地方几乎不可能拿到盖房许可

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当需求上涨

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绝对意味着房价上涨

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所以我们所说的利益
不管是来自退税

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还是来自想搬家到旧金山的人

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所有这些所得都归土地拥有者

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这其实是当今美国面临的最大问题之一

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但是我知道人们想买房安家

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假如你37岁
有2个在校上学的孩子

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你希望他们能在好校区上个好高中

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不想听到别人来说:
"你得搬走了"

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你想自己打理自家后院

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不想不停地讨论房租合约问题

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买房之后这些问题就都缓解了

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我觉得这些人买房有道理

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但是要记住得一点是,
平均看来

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买房不会是很好的投资方式

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除非是特定的某类人

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比如很想稳定下来.
比普通人更求安稳的那类人

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才会从买房中得益

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记住

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如果你买一个房子,
然后暖气系统出问题了

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你就得修,
这可是个大问题

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