China Will Invade Taiwan in 2025: US General

China’s invasion of Taiwan

is coming

Possibly a lot sooner than you think

Welcome to China Uncensored, I’m Chris Chappell.

The Chinese Communist Party has become 
increasingly aggressive toward Taiwan.

By the end of 2022,

Chinese military incursions 
close to Taiwanese airspace had become routine.

Which is a messed up routine.

Have 
your morning coffee, walk the dog,

intimidate your neighbor with the ever looming 
threat of invasion...

and make the bed.

Meanwhile, Chinese leader Xi Jinping was telling

top officials he would never renounce 
the right to use force to take Taiwan.

And when then-Speaker of the House Nancy 
Pelosi visited Taiwan last August,

China even rehearsed a blockade of Taiwan.

But some said there was no imminent threat.

Yeah, so calm down!

What, do you bank employees 
get nervous

when guys in ski masks come in with guns and practice robbing the place?

It’s 
just a rehearsal. Don’t be so paranoid!

A Chinese Communist Party conquest 
of Taiwan would be a disaster.

Taiwan is a thriving democratic country.

For it to fall to an authoritarian regime would be 
a bad sign.

It would demolish the idea that the US could protect its allies,

like Japan, South 
Korea, and the Philippines.

It would send a message in the Indo Pacific

that the Chinese 
Communist Party is the only player in town.

The Chinese Communist Party’s 
military would dominate the region.

But as much as the CCP wants Taiwan,

it would prefer to take Taiwan through 
economic and diplomatic coercion.

Or heck, maybe they’ll finally just try being nice

and offering them some flowers.

It’s 
almost Valentine’s Day, after all.

They’d prefer that over military force.

There are a lot of reasons for this.

For one, Russia’s botched invasion of 
Ukraine

has shown how a small force of resistance fighters

can hold off 
much better equipped invaders.

And the CCP would not want to face 
the same international backlash.

A war would also be very costly.

Both in terms of 
lives, and even more tragic for the CCP…

money!

There, there. I’ll sacrifice as many citizens as 
it takes.

But I won’t let anything happen to you.

China is in the midst of an economic crisis.

It’s made worse by a demographic crisis.

And despite the rapidly aging population,

many young people can’t find work.

Hey, they should try a job in the 
military!

It’s not like they have to worry about going to war any time soon.

They’re just rehearsals! Stop being so paranoid!

There’s also the current Covid crisis.

80% of the country may be infected.

That’s more than a billion people.

And many of them are elderly,

which means they are more 
likely to die from Covid.

Especially when many hospitals look like this.

There are so many cremations happening right now,

That in China

Burning Man isn’t a music festival. 
It’s what the air smells like.

So again, an expensive invasion of Taiwan 
that kills off many of China’s youth,

and risks a global backlash is really not Plan A.

Nevertheless, a top US general is now predicting

an invasion could be just two years away.

And the US is preparing.

But 
in trying to avoid a war,

could the US end up accidentally 
sparking one?

More after the break.

Welcome back.

People have been trying to figure out 
when China’s going to invade Taiwan.

Some have said 2027,

which is the 100 year 
anniversary of the People's Liberation Army.

Others have said 2035,

when the Party says it will 
have basically achieved socialist modernization.

Although if they wait until they achieve that,

they’re not going to invade 
until… half past never.

Some have put an invasion as soon as 2024,

though the Pentagon denied that.

But in a recent memo, General Michael A. 
Minihan ,

who oversees the Air Force’s fleet of transport and refueling aircraft,

says “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.”

Wow, that’s a smart gut he’s got 
there.

My stomach only warns me

of impending doom about 40 
minutes after I get Arby’s.

Now the Pentagon is denying this, too.

However, there is a lot to that date.

General Minihan points out that both the US 
and Taiwan

have presidential elections in 2024.

2025 also lines up with what 
Taiwan’s defense minister has said.

But again, the general consensus is that

there is a very real threat China 
will invade at some point.

And the US is preparing.

Word is, new Speaker of the House Kevin 
McCarthy

will make a Taiwan visit this year.

Other US representatives have introduced a bill

pushing for Taiwan’s membership in 
the International Monetary Fund.

That kind of recognition by an international organization

would make it much 
more awkward for China to invade.

Meanwhile, a Congressional resolution has been 
introduced

calling on the Biden Administration to end the US government’s one China policy

and formally recognize Taiwan independence.

It also calls for a free 
trade agreement with Taiwan.

Of course, resolutions are nonbinding.

They don’t actually change policy.

They’re more of a statement that this is 
something Congress thinks should happen.

These are all good things.

Because the 
more support the US shows for Taiwan,

the more costly it is for 
the CCP to invade Taiwan.

The problem is that as 
tensions escalate over Taiwan,

the risk increases that a war 
could accidentally be sparked.

Even worse, some might come to see 
a war for war’s sake as a good idea.

I’ve talked before about the mistaken idea 
some analysts have

that the problem is Chinese leader Xi Jinping, not the Communist 
Party itself.

That if you remove him,

then the West can freely invest in 
China

and make a lot of money again.

Some have even suggested a war over 
Taiwan could be a good way to oust Xi.

Cai Xia , a former professor at the Central 
Party School of the Chinese Communist Party,

wrote in Foreign Affairs last year,

“The 
only viable way of changing course [is]

a humiliating defeat in a war.

If Xi were to 
attack Taiwan… there is a good chance that the

war would not go as planned.

In that event, 
the elites and the masses would abandon Xi.”

Unless he tries being nice and 
offering them some flowers, too.

And while Wall Street may have 
its reasons for hoping to see Xi ousted,

there’s another group that 
also shares an interest in war.

Weapons manufacturers, wherever they’re 
based,

literally make a living from killing.

In President Dwight D. Eisenhower's 
1961 farewell speech,

he warned of a "military-industrial complex,"

a 
collection of armed forces bureaucrats,

plus arms making corporations and others,

who share an interest in keeping wars going.

But most people do not want to see 
the US get into a war with China.

And that’s why it’s so important for the 
US to put on a strong show of support

for Taiwan now.

Because that’s the 
best hope of preventing a war.

And breaking up the CCP’s 
disturbing morning routine.

If you’d like to learn more about 
the military industrial complex,

check out the most recent episode 
of our new channel Gamers Unbeaten,

Nier Automata Deconstructs the Military 
Industrial Complex.

I’ll put a link below.

And now it’s time for me to answer a question 
from a fan

who supports China Uncensored on the crowd funding website Patreon,

or our 
exclusive social media platform on Locals.

Today’s question comes from Mtnman22 on 
Locals.

I had a very dark thought.

Is the CCP stopping zero Covid

partly 
to fix their demographic crisis?

Wouldn't it benefit the CCP to get rid 
of people outside the working age? Ick.

Well that’s a very interesting idea.

As I mentioned earlier in the episode,

China’s population is shrinking,

and there are more and more elderly.

Elderly people are so expensive to take care of.

So if a bunch of the elderly die from 
Covid,

wouldn’t that help the Party?

Here are a couple problems with that idea.

Number one, the current Covid surge was well

underway even before the Communist 
Party ended the Zero Covid policy.

It’s most likely the Party ended it 
because it was going to become very clear

that the policy wasn’t working—

and 
that would embarrass the Party even more.

And that’s the biggest issue with the idea this 
was engineered by the Party.

If a huge number of people start dying from Covid,

that makes it look 
like the Party isn’t as great, glorious,

and in control as it always said it was.

That directly 
undermines the legitimacy of Communist rule.

The Party would much rather 
deal with the demographic crisis

by getting young people to have kids.

That’s why one province even ended the 
ban on unmarried people having children.

Yes, that was not allowed before.

I’d 
expect to see the Party doing much more to encourage births,

since that gives the 
Party more control over people’s lives,

rather than hoping a pandemic outside of the 
Party’s control

kills a bunch of elderly people.

Thanks for your question 
and your support Mtnman22.

And thank you for watching.

If you want to help 
us fight the Chinese Communist Party,

join our exclusive social media platform on Locals.

For a 
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as well as the entire 
community.

Join at chinauncensored.locals.com

Once again I’m Chris Chappell, see you next time.