Rising Crime? Trends in Crime Rates From 1960 to 2020

>> Crime on the rise.

A surge in crime.

A massive increase
in crime.

This is something you've
undoubtedly heard.

I hear it all the time.

Is it accurate, though?

Well, in a way, yes.

But also no, not at all.

What if I told you that

crime rate has
been approaching

both record highs and

record lows at
the same time?

Now, I'm sure
you're asking,

how is that possible?

Well, let's take a look at
the numbers to find out.

When we talk about
crime rates,

we're referring
to the number of

reported criminal offenses

per 100,000 people.

This is done to provide

a consistent measure to

account for fluctuations
in the population.

Let's get into it.

So if we compare
2020-2019,

we definitely see a sharp

rise in violent crime.

Well, that's it,
folks, case closed.

See you. Have a good one.

Of course, that's
not the whole story.

Because while there was

an increase in
violent crime,

here is the overall crime
rate from 2019 to 2020,

which actually went down.

And the rate is
so low, in fact,

that it's actually
at its lowest level

in nearly 60 years.

1963 was the last
year that was lower.

So how can this be?

What explains
this discrepancy?

Well, different crimes

are following
different trends.

Some are going up,
others are going down.

When all types
of crime are

treated equally and

everything is
added together,

the crimes that are
decreasing are doing so

at a greater rate than

those that are increasing,

hence the decline
in overall crime.

So what then explains

this discrepancy the most?

Property crimes.

Property crime
rates have been

consistently declining
since peaking in 1991.

2020 saw the lowest

property crime
rates since 1962.

Larcenies, by far

the most common crime
tracked in the UCR,

account for most
of this decline.

But other property crimes

have been
declining as well,

including burglaries,
which have been

trending downward
since peaking in 1980.

The other two
property crimes,

motor vehicle
theft and arson,

have also been declining,

although they saw a
slight increase in 2020,

but not to any
great extent.

Motor vehicle theft
basically went

back up to what
it was in 2009,

2010, and arson went

back up to the
same rate as 2017.

They are both still
very far away from

their late 1980s,
early 1990s peaks.

So that's the
property crimes,

which accounted
for most of

the overall
decline in crime.

But what about violent
crimes specifically,

which again, did increase
from 2019 to 2020?

Well, even though
violent crime

did increase overall,

this does not apply to
all violent crimes.

For example,
robberies followed

a similar pattern
as property crimes.

2020 saw the lowest
robbery rates since 1965.

Robberies peaked in
1991 and have been on

a continuous
downslope since with

a few minor temporary
increases 2006-2008.

And rape followed

a completely
different pattern,

actually increasing
steadily 2013-2018,

then decreasing
in 2019 and 2020.

Aggravated assaults
have also been

slowly rising since
bottoming out in 2014,

only to shoot up in 2020,

increasing to the
highest rate since 2008.

But that's the crime rate,

which is what we've
been looking at so

far as it accounts

for differences in
the population.

But when we
instead look at

the overall number of
reported incidents,

aggravated assaults were
roughly on par with

what they were in
1999 and 2000,

nearly 100,000
more than in 2019.

That's 214,000 away from

the 1993 peak of
1.14 million,

but still the
highest number of

aggravated assaults
in 20 years,

and the third largest
percentage increase

from the previous year,

only 1964 and
1986 were larger.

And then there's
homicides.

Homicide rates increased
dramatically in

2020 to the highest
rates since 1997.

This is a major
increase from what

we've seen in the
last two decades,

but still a far
cry from when

homicide rates were
at their peak.

In fact, the
homicide rate in

2020 was still
lower than it

was for the nearly
30-year period 1968-1997.

So is the violent crime

increase massively
overhyped?

Well, not so fast.

Because the
overall number of

homicides is the
most concerning.

There were 21,570
homicides in 2020,

the highest since 1995,

and only 3,500 away from

the 1993 peak of
just under 25,000,

which had the
most homicides

of any year on record.

So, more concerning
than the rate increase,

which wasn't very
high historically,

is the increase in

the overall number
of homicides.

Unprecedented? No. There
were more homicides

in 1980 and '81
and 1990-1995.

But 2020 was the
largest ever increase

in homicides from
the year prior,

with a 29% increase and

nearly 5,000 more
homicides than in 2019.

That said, 2019 was

a fairly low baseline
to start from.

So if we take this into
account by looking at

the percentage change from

the average number of

homicides in the
previous five years,

as opposed to
just one year,

we see the increase
is the most

substantial in 50 years,

but not the biggest ever.

1968, 1969, 1971,
we're larger.

But in terms of the
difference in the number

of homicides from the
previous five years,

as opposed to the
percentage change,

2020 is still the
largest ever increase,

beating the previous
record high of

1971 by over 600.

So it is certainly
concerning

that homicides
have gone up

so much in such
a short time.

But an increase from one

year to the next does not

necessarily mean
it is part of

a larger trend or pattern.

So there's another crucial
question to consider.

Is this something that
is unprecedented?

Have we seen similar

violent crime increases
in recent years?

Actually, yes, although

certainly not to
the same degree.

There was an
increase 2014-2016.

And looking at
this graph alone,

you would conclude
violent crime

is definitely on the rise.

But the picture this graph

is presenting is
a bit misleading.

How so? Well, what did

the crime rate look
like before 2014?

Is this part of a
continued upward trend?

If we go back a
little further,

an entirely different
picture emerges.

Violent crime was on

a downward trend
2010-2014,

and only in 2015,

did it start
to rise again,

but still not to the
same level it had

been just a few
years prior in 2012.

The only way to say

violent crime was on an

upward trend here is to

selectively begin with

a historically low
crime rate in 2014 and

judge any increases in

subsequent years based on

how it is higher
than this low point.

But what happened
after 2016?

Did the violent crime rates
continue to increase?

Well, no. 2016 turned

out to be a temporary
high point.

Violent crime
started to go back

down again as it
had been previously

and continued to decline
until it was even

lower in 2019 than
it was in 2013.

So in terms of

the overall violent
crime rate,

yes, there indeed was
an increase in 2020,

but an increase from a
low baseline level to

nearly the exact same rate

it had been in 2012.

And again, this
is coming off

historically high levels
of violent crime.

The overall violent crime
rate isn't anywhere

near the same level it was

at the early 1990s peak,

even with the substantial

increase in homicides,

because it is the
rarest crime of all.

But because it is

undoubtedly the
most serious,

it warrants the extra
attention it receives.

It's important
to keep in mind

that crime goes
through cycles.

It has peaks and valleys.

We're coming off
historical drops in crime,

beginning in the 1990s,

it followed historically
high levels of

crime in the
1970s and '80s.

Going back even further,

crime increased in the
1920s and '30s when

organized crime
first appeared

during the
Prohibition era,

the US Constitutional
amendment

prohibiting the
sale of alcohol,

that went really,

followed by the
Great Depression.

It was then fairly
stable during

World War II in
the postwar era

through the 1950s.

Homicide has even
declined during

this time before beginning

to increase dramatically,

beginning in the 1960s.

And these cycles are from

just a less than
100 year period,

so it is possible
that crime,

like so many other things,

naturally cycles
through increases

and decreases over time.

And over the last
three decades,

we've experienced
not so much of

a crime decline as

rather a return
to a normal,

typical or more average
level of crime,

referred to as
regression to the mean.

Now, will violence
in the form

of homicides and
assaults continue

to increase or remain at

high levels that
they were in 2020?

The available
data for 2021

certainly indicates that

this could be the case,

at least in the
short term.

But is this part of a
new long term trend?

Certainly possible.

It's also
possible, though,

that this increase in

violent crime is
largely a reflection

of how just
massively screwed up

the last two years
really have been.

We've experienced
the deadliest year

in US history,

with not only a
surge in homicides

and a surge in overdose
deaths from opioids,

but the worst mass

casualty event
in US history,

surpassing the casualties
of the Civil War,

with the deaths
of over 770,000

people and counting
in America alone,

and over five million
around the world.

And the backlash to

the public health
restrictions

brought on by
the pandemic,

widespread
economic turmoil,

mass social unrest,

uprisings over
racial injustice

that have amounted to what

could possibly be
the largest protests

in US history,

and a highly contentious
presidential election

that ended with
an insurrection

at the US Capitol.

Those are just a few
notable highlights.

So it's possible
that violent crime

goes back down again
in 2022 and beyond,

as it did in 2017.

Or we may be looking

at a new long term trend.

The future is
notoriously difficult

to predict, and only
time will tell.