Anticipating 2025: Maneesh Juneja

Maneesh Juneja, Digital Health Futurist and Health 2.0 London Chapter Founder, speaks on the topic "Healthcare in the future: will advancing technology make doctors unemployed?" at the London Futurists Anticipating 2025 event, http://anticipating2025.com/agenda/

commercial ties to any the company's
products

mention this morning my talk and just
before I get into this conversation

I've got enormous respect for the
doctors who worked so hard to save lives

now we had yesterday

about aging and I believe as well in the
21st century

the biggest challenge facing this world
is

AG at the moment

the number of people on this planet 8 60
or above

is greater than the number of people 85

under by 2050 that's set to become

a the people over 60

would be great the people under 50
governments

I'm not taking seriously until now so

just a few months ago in London the GA

host the first evident summit again this
time

things seriously when it comes the cost
of health care is ludicrously expensive

in

unsustainable if you look at the every
person speak to health care

is faced with budget cuts that up being
of two

innovate then the the money is left
unsaid

give you to stick their by 2050

estimated most countries in the world
health care spending

with double from today's levels best
absolutely extraordinary when it comes

to the practice of health care

it's extremely complex regulated
environment um

if you look at the US the third leading
cause of death every year in the US

after heart disease and cancer is
medical error if you look at this

example here why we still using paper in
hospitals

why we have in fact being sent when we
come

we send emails each other why does it
take

a week or two to book an appointment you

GP why does it take couple weeks or
longer

to get your blood test results why can't
we use technology

to prevent people from getting sick so

there are actually people talking about
this now so it's just in the last two

years you've got this guy here

a dot Eric Topol he's based in San Diego
he's within this book creative

destruction matson

very interesting triggering a lot of
debates then you've got this guy Vinod

Khosla who's an investor he

cope Sun Microsystems and Silicon Valley

he submit we need doctors algorithms he
made a very provocative comment

in August 2012 love

angry responses from medical medical
community

based upon what he was saying now

do we have enough doctors in the world
today

know if you look at where we offer
example in the UK

that's the number of doctors per 1000
population

their way USA

or then you look at other countries

they developed country three-point 7 me

you look at India though less than one
doctor per thousand

populated look gonna

Nigeria which is going population

every Brazil South Africa which is

probably the richest country in Africa
that's quite staggering

the driver why we need why would

question you New Orleans today how many
show

at a global level 500,000

million forming 10 million 10 million

100 million that's not up

actually according to the WH 4.3 million
that's the global shortage right now

how many people on a don't have

physical access to hospital crane

adoptive any today any guesses

over a billion anymore

lower thank you

billion but it's absolutely extracts
staggering

began wings here in the country

where we have everything's patience

in the population million people don't
have that access

now full Phyllis process is a friend of
mine

personalized medicine coalition in the
States very very

insightful think about the future

so she sent me the slide in we're
talking about actually

you know the practice medicine through
the ages and how

nothing much has changed in the practice
of medicine there when you have

adopted the patient when you're sick you

of them this you are you going to visit
them look in 20-25 what she's talking

about

given genomics and personalized medicine
where we're heading is that

at the right time the right treatment

delivered you based upon all that date
generates about you

so again what is the role then if the
doctor

in the future in Aria if there can be
sitting there monitoring

what's going on with your body now

what the nature paths say about doctors

I found a quote many years ago I don't
remember which

person said he wrote down

I'll a every doctor should be

become unemployed exactly

location China fascinating

see the vaccination the model used to be

the doctrine village would get paid each
month provided enough patience are

they operating on this model is all
about prevention

now when it comes to wearable technology

which is invoke the moments last week I
went to the wearable technology should

first ever in the UK so I met this young
man

he's from that little country that
Bulgaria next in Europe

I'm he basically they've developed a
prototype for women so

should with ease pressure sensors in
real time

is gonna send string through an app on
your phone tells you

wear on you for on the left and the
right you putting pressure

and monitoring that again they've
designed it from sport

effective for runners but I asked him
what about if you could use it

older people what if you could do that
date

pretty when an older person risk falling

because the precious change on for now
why is that important

from a health perspective in this
country 40 percent

up the ambulance is called out home over
65

due to falls to think about it that

guy in Bulgaria is working on that

and impact that technology again a lot
of the technology that's the thing

come from outside the traditional
sources

look at this I picked this up the
Internet about this fascinating if you

look wearable technology moment that

we're heading if you've never used any
of these devices unit so many

a again is that something you wanna help
towards

how does health technology going to
surpass

rather than the other way around so talk
about that start

from Bulgaria spent the last two years

running the help lunch at stimulating

growth start this well in this country
absolutely fascinating to see the energy

and the spirit of these people some of
whom know nothing about health care

but they're frustrated through their own
experienced a relative experiences and

they want to do something and I believe

there's we need to do more stimulate
start in this area not just a buttload

into things

is gonna be abuzz with you can hear more
about where everything's connected

estimates vary sisters internal such as
$50 billion devices

connected to the Internet by 2020 is an
example

a vending machine I've met some people

posts like this so your prose smart
vending machine

future knows hi less

it knows you have a wall much in knows
you haven't slept that much

you go to select a chocolate bar an

and a vending machine because it's not a
giant things

actually says pay don't you think

pope wat and how

do you feel about machines nine more
about the state of your health

new or even your doctor this lady here

is an amazing lady the body computing

University of Southern California let
Saxon

she spoke South by Southwest in Austin
recently

she talks about future within five years
all

electronic tattoos being put on the
check every newborn baby in the

developed world

and that can monitor in real time kg

all the biometrics and string that dates
when

on a device both pediatrician and
Charles parents can do is monitor

now when I think about even further than
that does that mean

we if this actually happened mean remove

wearables too terrible literally taxes

almost I'll last

don't spoil we're talking a future with
singles

toilets this is Paul actually people
working on this right now

given things so imagine again this
scenario

you wake up in the morning you go to the
bathroom use the toilet is a smart

toilet analyzes your help

you then walked with the kitchen in your
smart for disconnect smart oil

smart grid how what's left

by the time you get the breakfast table
the app on your smartphone is linked to

the date

smoke-free and smart toilet and get your
personal mill suggestion

for the day what do you feel with that
make you excited

now Intel the service

cause a country's including India Japan

but they are what percentage of people
willing to

from this more toilet if it could hell

with 85 percent 16 percent 34 percent 58
cents

70

7 thing yep

because me know the country they
surveyed with people most willing to

share

information about their bodies if you
could improve

healthcare innovation help India me

so again out how attitudes privacy

here differ from other countries now

when it comes to date Bihar this
revolution in health care is going to be

date sir in particular dates

from each of us our bodies 24 hours a
day

body rebate snow-capped with

doctor with these new technologies with
they week

capture on ourselves every day now many
people interested in stages extremely

valuable

not a scientist looking find a cure for
a disease health insurers

governments even cybercriminals
interested in

so these are companies that down below
that

recently set up in the last year or two
because new trend

affect people waking up and saying how
much is my were

who my who has access to it date

your building the world's first personal
marketplace is not specifically designed

to help their

any personal data you can sell your
Facebook page directly to a brat

handshake UK startling to do that

you got health bank and I'll health data
cooperative Wichita patient data call

way you can actually store your data

in patient medical where you know you

on dates back your self control and you
get

financially rewarding sharing and then
this citizen me

which is you and they're building up
again

take like this now

robotic surgery so at the moment top
left hand corner

is da Vinci robotic surgery what is
designed to do is

basically to minimally invasive surgery
so

it's not doc not to make direct contact
with the patient

anymore but is via this robot a.m.

then you've got actually in terms of
innovation you've got the yellow which

is based in Germany

they're looking at robotic surgery which
can actually be

conducted remotely when and what they're
planning for

in terms of people going into space need
surgery

to be doing it remotely from that

they're working and this is a a great
video

just released about a month ago from 50
best leon surgical

where talking about actually what if you
could eliminate many

one drop saline injected

with now robotics that whatever they
need

human body 10-minute video

absolutely staggering yes

you can search for this taken from you
and then you've got then

personal care both for example in Japan
where the

really one country mating population

they're looking very much robles

help you all population

whether it's personal care in terms even
lifting

that older person into the paw now

3d printing human organs is a hot topic

lots excitement about it this is just

something I picked up off the internet
with somebody touristy put down

okay 3d printing human Austin
interesting

not gonna happen human his incredibly
complex

we're not there yet the leading company
in the world

based in the States at the moment

where they're at and that the leading
people in this field

is that they can prepare strips liver
tissue

they can sell to pharmaceutical
companies that can be used

the toxicity attention that's where
they're at then

leading-edge 2019 possibly printing
those tissue strips

2pac's failing organs yes

yes 3b by printing and in 20-25

perhaps print all Bihar

not like within 20-25

the main challenges actually printing
those human organs

is actually creating the blots creating
the

living tissue themselves one thing at

credit applying now

this is called a few days ago IBM what
sandwich

just a month you either be

humans jeopardy that game in the US now
what they're working on

current research is actually
personalized medicine and you know me

data

it's so difficult look through that date

human beings planning you Watson

that they now again this is just

research shows how quickly the time
revolving

now there's a lot of plaque I love

especially magazines on the Internet

now what I believe in science driven
innovation when it comes to health care

this is a me last summer on a nice sunny
day in Los Angeles

body computing conference that guy there
they now cardiologists

was invented the life my phone case

that can do NEC you

over-the-counter now so you can actually
then now they just added

you can actually after you take CG

anywhere fun you can then get announced

clinical by within 24 hours

now when I talk to him and see what
about the electorate

today they'll that possible

you know I always go to him for advice
tells me a

the the truth next big challenge left on
it

to this end great but actually major
engineering challenges

power source you can stick power

second signal to noise ratio

taken a filter that dates are coming
from your body with

the other day being generated

you speak to doctors main challenges of

they always think many we've got
evidence based medicine showing

this to help technologies where's the
evidence

in this hell at the moment there's
hardly any start to sink

school product potentially can do this
the major barrier to getting

the dot technologies

you may have heard through using the
search queries

people searching for flu to be able to
predict where

the next flu pandemic will come along so

again recent article and I like the term
that they used in this article walkman

because that phenom not big data but

google's use the big day that actually
they found

retrospectively those be that film

who overestimating the problem for

flu who

this is an interesting thing I was at
the workshop investor in London last

week

they invited about personal data
wearables

and the future in terms of so the
scenario was

than 10 years in the future if people
page share

help they could the possible

the people wearable technology the

fine the hell date but because this
economically

valuable to share your dates will people
even

give themselves a chronic disease using
rebel technology

justly get money from forms South

the crazy but again i'm glad that we're
having the debate now

now because road ahead

the biggest question on this road ahead

but a lot of people ignore

is who's gonna pay speak to the NHS

today anyone them they're not even
having to do more with less

have less with less

no because actually buy sup some people
feel they're actually by investing

you take great these new services great

mom

now PwC the survey two years ago
globally

they asked people doctors in different
countries about mobile

hell hell what they fell

64 say doc this

and help why make patients to
independent

going shift this technology comes around

the real bad the centuries doctors

have power profit prestige

and technology take away from

so in terms of how do we actually

collaborate how do we get

head doctors adopt them

you know we need to stop rather than
thinking all

you know Rogan going down this I lose
you win well i win you lose

at stereo mentality or lose lose it
nobody wants to do anything

how can we actually society get win-win

in Aria that can we get everyone around
the table

talking about this now having opening
and conversations

now this is a in terms of with advancing
technology make books unemployed

the the researchers at the University of
Oxford they've

six months ago the this research

produces medical model based on data
from the US

2010 what jobs in the net

that like computerized and the
probability

you can see here that actually

jobs both or Mason when he is a loan
officer at the bank

let's go through now of

Physicians & Surgeons .4 percent chance

being doping computer they don't believe
doctors will be

with help say you know those low-level
Joe

Rep technicians though disappear within
the next 20

by the way you would

point

your job being eliminated in the next 20
years up

now this is a slight I made up because I

envision then with all this technology
everything

converging together we could be sitting
in 20-25

we have a fever a Serie

water see checking checking

one minute I'll long ok terminal

there are three and the left care
facility you would

direction owned by the way you have made
will would you like to make one

to you now if we go to

down that road Israel

doctors almost them all to date taxes

that feel that they need and then also

if you think about it what I've been
thinking that is actually all this comes

true

and we go down this road what is the
role then

human being in health care and actually

what machines and technology and
software and data call

is provide provide compassion

so you are by you series diagnosed

but actually human being and tell you

I'll be there with you yet like on

human touch I don't believe that your
place that

role both you to possibly then

widely pains his whole

not forgetting

actually the reason for pushing us apart

technology is these people like this
billion people

no access and health we've got a

we've gotta remember these people not to
think about people here

in the developed world have access

and very quickly summing up

the reason at the moment the challenges
of

prevention we have to move away from me

for senses with top

USA the patient door my first thought is

how much money make insurrection have
intestinal

how we proceed order happen up the
diagnosis

i get if i remember right that me is

bus technology may in a blast shift away
from that

there's lots of questions

lots of uncertainty week on like

yesterday we call 2025 however

what we can do world is

ask ourselves where do we want to go
thank you

have a few minutes for questions okay
first here

okay %uh

so on two quick questions are one is
some old

a there's to trends going on one is that
automation is saying creasing

unemployment and the other is that be

AST the price of different technologies
decrease the yet more purchasing

power per unit of currency and now I'm

and it seems like there will not be
enough jobs to all

all the people in the world in the
twenties and thirties unknown

you mentioned selling our data because
southerners

a lot of initiatives about a universal
basic income

from provided by governments but it
seems to be a very

slow and difficult process to provide a
certain

life right a farm a money for each

is individual in the world so are is
there any way that we called

achieve kind of universal basic income
true big date up from companies for its

nice

I with year in which I envisions a
scenario

that actually we've got seven billion
people seven billion mobile phones

we have the fact technology

page allows us collecting money to these
individuals

and companies organizations wishing

get back dates that so what if we could
build that platform

the same time as enabling those people
in rich countries to do that research

and get that data

you can potentially improve the Senate
living

by actually paying people around the
world for the data even drew Africa

for example so I think that's entirely
possible thank you over here

yes came in each that was grace I'm just

question with darts using technology

whole themselves shortens issues

and I think that in ages that have $20
billion short

that'd realist

DC this helping in them should

is no and I'll tell you why so you may
have to leave

the NHS and health care organizations
and say we want innovation we need

fans then cannot sustain this

practice helped you speak level

you go to the procurement the local area

and I've had started say okay we finally
got an introduction something age

NHS they locked and technology like the
business model

when it came to dealing procurement
procurement say 0 right so at utilities

will say

you need three years of trading history
do you own or start up with three months

old

well sorry bye bye that harsh reality on
the ground this question

why is it the and doctors surgeries and
hospitals are still using pen and paper

and faxing these poems rather than using
it like it is to me

that's a very good question

a because they haven't

be incentivized make that switch and
again serve in the US

with Obamacare they've recently

introduced pack stimulates doctors to
move away

from paper to electronic medical record
because they will be

penalized they've done hi

and summit my day jobs investing in
healthcare businesses in

India Africa on to questions firsters

on given you at this with that is that
an

increase potency my make-ups and
employed and Indies about you right now

in a massive expensive medical

I'm universities on would you tell not
to

second question and is

the track record medical innovations
last 34 years has been

largely will increase in cost do you see
any change in that trend

because all I see is technology
increasing health inequalities

in places like on India and Africa
rather than

arm sobriety for the billion people he
talked about

thank you so into the first question
would likewise

in government not bill is medical
universities

trained doctors in India I wouldn't say

per se that stop they should incorporate
into that plan

what we're all these new technologies
might be helpful

when it comes to your second question
about

increasing costs medical innovation

the biggest area for

disruption what's going to be the
easiest to make change things use

low-cost technologies

is in the preventive medicine there is
again diagnostics track

victory again I see a lot of innovation
coming from start-ups

in poorer countries and so actually
Western countries

and now having to consider how can they

import some these technologies reverse
innovation

West held sale

thank you