Trump, Ukraine and the Myth of a Democratic EU | Jorge Tamames Interview
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0:00 - 0:04[Tiare] Hello and welcome
to the channel of DiEM25. -
0:04 - 0:07Today we are joined by Jorge Tamames.
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0:07 - 0:10He has a PhD from University College
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0:10 - 0:13Dublin and currently teaches European
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0:13 - 0:15Political Economy at the University
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0:15 - 0:17Carlos III of Madrid.
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0:17 - 0:19Jorge, thank you so much
for joining us today. -
0:19 - 0:20How are you doing?
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0:20 - 0:21[Jorge] My pleasure.
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0:21 - 0:23Thanks for having me.
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0:23 - 0:24All is good here.
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0:24 - 0:25Rainy day in Madrid.
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0:25 - 0:26Rainy month, actually.
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0:26 - 0:28[Tiare] Yeah, we're both
from Madrid, actually, -
0:28 - 0:31so we've had two madrileños in a row.
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0:31 - 0:34I want to start talking about the joint
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0:34 - 0:38press conference with President Volodymyr
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0:38 - 0:40Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump that
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0:40 - 0:43we recently saw because what we want to
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0:43 - 0:45touch upon today mainly is the
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0:45 - 0:48geopolitical tensions that are currently
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0:48 - 0:51happening, especially within Europe and
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0:51 - 0:53in relation to Ukraine.
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0:54 - 0:56And obviously we need to talk about this
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0:56 - 0:58joint press conference.
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0:58 - 1:02This event saw the Ukrainian and American
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1:02 - 1:05leaders confront each other in a blow-up
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1:05 - 1:08that ushers in a new phase of the
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1:08 - 1:11war in Ukraine, one under a Trump
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1:11 - 1:13presidency.
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1:13 - 1:16And I was wondering, what do you make
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1:16 - 1:20of the apparent antagonism between the
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1:20 - 1:21two leaders?
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1:21 - 1:23Well, the first thing that I'll say is
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1:23 - 1:25that I had to watch the clip several
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1:25 - 1:27times and this is not something that I
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1:27 - 1:28usually do.
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1:28 - 1:30My background is in foreign affairs.
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1:30 - 1:31I studied international relations.
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1:31 - 1:34I worked at a foreign policy journal in
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1:34 - 1:35the think tank for a while, so this
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1:35 - 1:36is sort of my bread and butter.
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1:37 - 1:40And I had never seen an exchange on
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1:40 - 1:40that level.
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1:41 - 1:43Just the humiliation of a guest who is
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1:43 - 1:44also a head of state in the White
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1:44 - 1:46House, in front of the press, with the
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1:46 - 1:47press participating in it.
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1:48 - 1:49I was shocked and I am not usually
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1:49 - 1:51one to be sort of shocked.
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1:51 - 1:53Trump has always generated this sort of
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1:53 - 1:55sometimes a bit prudish reaction
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1:55 - 1:57regarding, oh, he doesn't respect norms.
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1:58 - 1:59He doesn't respect due process.
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1:59 - 2:01He's like this vulgar guy.
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2:01 - 2:03And I usually don't have much patience
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2:03 - 2:04for that, but I was surprised.
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2:04 - 2:07I think on a formal level, it was
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2:07 - 2:08just something very different to watch.
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2:09 - 2:10And I think, I guess it goes to
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2:10 - 2:12the differences between his first
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2:12 - 2:13administration and the second one.
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2:13 - 2:14This is the kind of thing you would
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2:14 - 2:17have not seen in the first Trump White
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2:17 - 2:18House, because at the end of the day,
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2:18 - 2:19he had to rely on a lot of
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2:19 - 2:20people who were not Trump world
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2:20 - 2:23characters like he has around him now,
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2:23 - 2:23right?
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2:23 - 2:25These were more standard Republican
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2:25 - 2:26operators.
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2:26 - 2:28Rex Tillerson, the guy who first ran his
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2:28 - 2:30department of state, was a guy who came
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2:30 - 2:31from the big oil industry.
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2:31 - 2:33So like the more standard profiles you
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2:33 - 2:35would see in a normal Republican
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2:35 - 2:35administration.
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2:36 - 2:37So in a way, I had this feeling
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2:37 - 2:39that this was new ground.
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2:39 - 2:41This entire concern with Trump in the way
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2:41 - 2:43that he doesn't respect the way things
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2:43 - 2:45are usually done and so forth, I found
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2:45 - 2:47myself taking it a bit more seriously in
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2:47 - 2:48the last two months than I did in
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2:48 - 2:49the past.
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2:49 - 2:51Now, the question, what do I think it
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2:51 - 2:53represented in terms of the substance?
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2:53 - 2:55I'm not sure to what extent this style
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2:55 - 2:56is going to work for this administration
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2:56 - 2:57or not.
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2:57 - 2:58And what I mean by that is that
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2:58 - 3:00I think it was very counterproductive in
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3:00 - 3:02terms of, I mean, I think Trump has
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3:02 - 3:03been extraordinarily successful in
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3:03 - 3:06galvanising the EU to sort of become
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3:06 - 3:08independent or become more autonomous
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3:08 - 3:11from the U.S. with events like this
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3:11 - 3:12one or like J.D. Vance's visit in
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3:12 - 3:14the Munich Security Conference.
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3:14 - 3:16And this is something that was not on
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3:16 - 3:17the menu two months ago.
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3:18 - 3:20So the future German Chancellor Merz,
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3:20 - 3:22when he was running for office, his whole
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3:22 - 3:23deal was, oh no, we're going to get
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3:23 - 3:24along pretty well with Trump.
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3:24 - 3:26We'll be able to reach some deals.
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3:26 - 3:28He's not our favourite guy, but we can
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3:28 - 3:29actually live with this guy.
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3:29 - 3:30We'll be pragmatic.
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3:30 - 3:33And on election night, he said, my first
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3:33 - 3:34concern is to become independent from the
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3:34 - 3:35U.S. So I think this has been
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3:35 - 3:38the first effect of this change in forms
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3:38 - 3:40rather than substance, because in terms
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3:40 - 3:42of the substance, this is the stuff he
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3:42 - 3:42ran on.
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3:42 - 3:45Well, the UK stuff, not other stuff that
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3:45 - 3:46he's actually pushing and we can talk
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3:46 - 3:47about it.
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3:47 - 3:48But yeah, that's sort of my reading of
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3:48 - 3:49the whole scene.
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3:50 - 3:51At first I was shocked.
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3:51 - 3:53And then looking at the reaction, I
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3:53 - 3:54think, well, maybe they're not reading
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3:54 - 3:55the room correctly.
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3:55 - 3:56And I don't mean the room of the
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3:56 - 3:58meeting in which it took place, but like
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3:58 - 4:00the broader room of the way Europeans are
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4:00 - 4:02going to react, public opinion in Ukraine
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4:02 - 4:05might shift or ultimately whether Russia
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4:05 - 4:07will actually pick up on the deal that
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4:07 - 4:08is being offered to them at this point.
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4:09 - 4:09Right.
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4:09 - 4:13Just to check your thoughts on another
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4:13 - 4:15important point related to this newly
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4:15 - 4:19Trump administration era, the United
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4:19 - 4:21States and Ukraine plan to sign a
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4:21 - 4:24minerals deal, which has seen much
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4:24 - 4:25controversy.
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4:25 - 4:27According to the deal, Ukraine will
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4:27 - 4:30contribute 50 percent of future proceeds
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4:30 - 4:34from state owned mineral resources, oil
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4:34 - 4:38and gas to an investment fund, which will
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4:38 - 4:41then invest to promote the safety,
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4:41 - 4:43security and prosperity of Ukraine.
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4:44 - 4:47This deal appears to imply that private
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4:47 - 4:48companies will need to get involved in
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4:48 - 4:51the mining process within the vague
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4:51 - 4:54information that we have been receiving
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4:54 - 4:55about this deal.
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4:55 - 4:59Do you believe, given what we know, do
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4:59 - 5:02you believe it can be perceived as simply
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5:02 - 5:05laying bare the American interest in
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5:05 - 5:08exploiting Ukrainian natural resources
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5:08 - 5:10for the benefit of the American
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5:10 - 5:11capitalist class?
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5:12 - 5:16Is there anything in this for working
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5:16 - 5:17class Americans?
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5:19 - 5:21OK, so let's start with the last part.
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5:22 - 5:24Is there something in this for working
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5:24 - 5:25class Americans?
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5:26 - 5:27I'd say no.
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5:28 - 5:29I mean, on the face of it, there
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5:29 - 5:30doesn't seem to be much.
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5:30 - 5:32I can have some sympathy for the people
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5:32 - 5:34who voted for the first Trump term,
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5:34 - 5:36right, with a working class background,
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5:36 - 5:38expecting to get sort of a better deal
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5:38 - 5:40than what was being offered by Hillary
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5:40 - 5:41Clinton in 2017.
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5:42 - 5:43But at this point, I think with Trump,
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5:43 - 5:45you sort of know what you're getting to
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5:45 - 5:45an extent.
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5:45 - 5:47I'll qualify that a bit further on.
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5:47 - 5:49But in terms of what is the American
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5:49 - 5:51working class getting out of this deal, I
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5:51 - 5:52don't know if this deal is viable at
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5:52 - 5:53all.
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5:53 - 5:55So sometimes it's hard to take these
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5:55 - 5:57announcements on their face.
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5:57 - 5:59And usually they create outrage, of
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5:59 - 6:01course, because it looks like a shakeup
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6:01 - 6:03and it seems to be a shakeup in
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6:03 - 6:06exchange for some very dubious security
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6:06 - 6:06guarantees.
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6:07 - 6:09Now, I'm not an expert in rare earths
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6:09 - 6:11or their processing or critical minerals.
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6:11 - 6:13So take this with a grain of salt,
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6:14 - 6:14pun unintended.
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6:14 - 6:16But from what I've read, it seems like
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6:16 - 6:18a lot of these rare earths, they come
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6:18 - 6:20from old maps from back in the Soviet
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6:20 - 6:21Union in the 70s and 80s.
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6:21 - 6:24It's not sure whether they can be mined
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6:24 - 6:26or they're economically viable as of
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6:26 - 6:26today.
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6:27 - 6:28A lot of the places that have to
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6:28 - 6:30be mined are sort of where the fighting
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6:30 - 6:31is taking place.
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6:31 - 6:32So none of that was a problem because
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6:32 - 6:34you even managed to get a peace deal.
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6:34 - 6:36So then presumably you'd get American
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6:36 - 6:39companies that go there and invest in the
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6:39 - 6:40mining process, right?
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6:40 - 6:42Mining is an economic sector that
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6:42 - 6:44requires a lot of capital investment,
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6:44 - 6:46long time horizons before you can get
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6:46 - 6:48credit on your investment and sort of a
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6:48 - 6:51very stable judicial and regulatory
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6:51 - 6:52framework.
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6:52 - 6:53These are not things you're going to be
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6:53 - 6:55getting right now in the Donbass region
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6:55 - 6:57of Ukraine or even in Ukraine or the
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6:57 - 6:59Russian or the full Russian occupied
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6:59 - 6:59areas.
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6:59 - 7:01So I don't see how this deal amounts
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7:01 - 7:04to much other than something that, you
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7:04 - 7:05know, Trump can announce and feel happy
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7:05 - 7:06about.
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7:06 - 7:07And I think here the experience of his
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7:07 - 7:09first term in office is instructive,
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7:09 - 7:09right?
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7:09 - 7:11We saw a lot of this during the
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7:11 - 7:12first Trump term.
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7:12 - 7:14So that's my general read on the deal.
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7:15 - 7:16So then it seems like it doesn't make
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7:16 - 7:17much sense.
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7:17 - 7:18But one of the interpretations I've heard
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7:18 - 7:20of this deal was that rather than coming
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7:20 - 7:21from the White House, it was something
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7:21 - 7:23that the Ukrainians and Zelensky pitched
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7:23 - 7:24to Donald Trump.
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7:24 - 7:26Again, if that is the case, that seems
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7:26 - 7:27to me a sort of genius move to
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7:27 - 7:29present him with a deal that he likes
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7:29 - 7:30and that is going to, you know, create
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7:30 - 7:32some shock and some stupor, but that
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7:32 - 7:34there's very little workable substance
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7:34 - 7:35behind it.
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7:35 - 7:36But ultimately, we'll have to wait and
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7:36 - 7:36see.
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7:37 - 7:38But I don't think this deal as of
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7:38 - 7:40now leading anywhere.
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7:40 - 7:41Yeah, I mean, I don't know.
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7:41 - 7:44I just personally felt like this was
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7:44 - 7:47just, you know, something it's like,
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7:47 - 7:50well, we should have known if the U
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7:50 - 7:52.S. is after anything or the EU.
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7:52 - 7:53Now we're going to get to that.
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7:53 - 7:55But if it's after anything would end up
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7:55 - 7:58be exploiting natural resources like I
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7:58 - 8:01think if we look at the history of
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8:01 - 8:05wars and the wars, especially that the U
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8:05 - 8:08.S. has enjoyed joining and pushing for.
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8:08 - 8:09I mean, I don't know.
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8:09 - 8:12I just I was quite shocked that anyone
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8:12 - 8:14would be shocked at the U.S. kind
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8:14 - 8:16of pursuing that kind of interest.
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8:16 - 8:18I mean, I was also shocked because this
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8:18 - 8:19was nowhere on the cards during the
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8:19 - 8:20campaign.
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8:20 - 8:20Right.
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8:21 - 8:21Yeah.
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8:21 - 8:22I'm not so much mistaken.
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8:22 - 8:25I don't remember hearing about this at
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8:25 - 8:26all throughout the past year.
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8:27 - 8:28Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm getting the
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8:28 - 8:30sense, you know, and this is something
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8:30 - 8:32that I think it's worth keeping in mind
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8:32 - 8:33because the pace of announcements from
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8:33 - 8:35this administration in the first month
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8:35 - 8:36and a half has been so overwhelming.
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8:37 - 8:39Sometimes it's just almost unavoidable
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8:39 - 8:41that you feel sort of demoralised and
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8:41 - 8:43overwhelmed and like you don't even have
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8:43 - 8:44a grip on what is happening.
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8:45 - 8:46And I think at points like that, it's
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8:46 - 8:48worth keeping in mind that these guys,
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8:48 - 8:50they won an election for a variety of
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8:50 - 8:50reasons.
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8:50 - 8:52But an important one was that there was
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8:52 - 8:54a critical mass of Americans who thought
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8:54 - 8:56that prices were too high and X were
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8:56 - 8:56too expensive.
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8:57 - 8:57Right.
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8:57 - 8:59So, you can say these were like economic
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8:59 - 9:02anxiety voters who voted because they
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9:02 - 9:04thought they were getting a lousy deal
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9:04 - 9:04with Biden.
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9:05 - 9:07And the Trump campaign did make a lot
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9:07 - 9:09of emphasis on prices being too high
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9:09 - 9:10throughout the campaign.
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9:10 - 9:12So those people voted with that in their
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9:12 - 9:12mind.
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9:12 - 9:14And what they got is mineral steel
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9:14 - 9:15invading the Panama Canal.
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9:15 - 9:17And it should be the first 50 per
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9:17 - 9:17state.
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9:17 - 9:19And we should also own Greenland.
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9:19 - 9:22I don't see how that is working very
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9:22 - 9:23well for your sort of working class
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9:23 - 9:25economic anxiety Trump voter in the long
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9:25 - 9:26term.
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9:26 - 9:27I don't think it's working for the stock
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9:27 - 9:28market either.
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9:28 - 9:29So you're like traditional Republican
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9:29 - 9:32who's just hoping to get a good return
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9:32 - 9:34on his investments from the Trump
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9:34 - 9:35presidency like happened last time when
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9:35 - 9:36the stock market was booming.
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9:37 - 9:38So I don't want to be too mechanistic
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9:38 - 9:39and say, oh, the economy doesn't work.
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9:40 - 9:41So he'll have like he'll run into
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9:41 - 9:41trouble.
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9:41 - 9:43But it's worth keeping in mind that we're
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9:43 - 9:44getting announcements of different deals
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9:44 - 9:46every day, but he's not delivering on the
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9:46 - 9:49basic deal that won the election for him.
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9:49 - 9:51Honestly, like I don't think a Trump
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9:51 - 9:53presidency works for anyone, obviously
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9:53 - 9:57not the working class, but also the vast
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9:57 - 9:59parts of the capitalist class.
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9:59 - 10:00I don't think or especially the
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10:00 - 10:01professional managerial class.
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10:01 - 10:03I don't think they're excited to have
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10:03 - 10:04him.
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10:04 - 10:06Hence Trump derangement syndrome.
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10:06 - 10:09Like I believe that is absolutely a
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10:09 - 10:09thing.
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10:09 - 10:11I wanted to ask you at the beginning
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10:11 - 10:14of this month of March, Trump halted
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10:14 - 10:18military aid to Ukraine, a cut that then
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10:18 - 10:21expanded to include all military
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10:21 - 10:25intelligence while acknowledging Russia's
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10:25 - 10:27guilt in illegally invading a sovereign
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10:27 - 10:28country.
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10:28 - 10:32We will probably agree that finding a
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10:32 - 10:35diplomatic solution that seeks to de
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10:35 - 10:38-escalate the military conflict should be
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10:38 - 10:38prioritised.
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10:39 - 10:42Do you believe these steps taken by
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10:42 - 10:47President Trump bear any positive aspects
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10:47 - 10:51at all, or are they counterproductive to
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10:51 - 10:51the sense?
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10:52 - 10:54Well, I'm going to give you my easy
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10:54 - 10:55answer, sort of a cop out.
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10:55 - 10:56But I do think it's too soon to
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10:56 - 10:59tell, because we don't know if this deal
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10:59 - 11:01at this stage, this compromise has buy in
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11:01 - 11:02from the Russians.
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11:03 - 11:05What we know is that the Ukrainian side
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11:05 - 11:07has sort of been strong armed to the
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11:07 - 11:07negotiating table.
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11:08 - 11:09Now, I think if you look at this
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11:09 - 11:11war, none of the sides were going to
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11:11 - 11:13get what they wanted originally.
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11:13 - 11:15So Russia wanted to topple the entirety
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11:15 - 11:18of the Ukrainian government, to march to
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11:18 - 11:22Kiev, to instal a puppet regime, and to
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11:22 - 11:23annex the four regions that it proclaimed
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11:23 - 11:25are part of new Russia.
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11:26 - 11:28This is a term they used to refer
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11:28 - 11:28to them.
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11:28 - 11:30And then on the Ukrainian side, at one
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11:30 - 11:32point, there was even talk of launching
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11:32 - 11:33an offensive and being able to retake
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11:33 - 11:34Crimea.
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11:34 - 11:37This was really always, always a far
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11:37 - 11:37-fetched idea.
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11:37 - 11:40So neither side got what it would
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11:40 - 11:41originally want from this war.
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11:42 - 11:43And so sooner or later, you're going to
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11:43 - 11:44have a negotiation, right?
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11:46 - 11:48Now, the question is, what does that
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11:48 - 11:52negotiation actually look like?
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11:52 - 11:54If you had a peace settlement now, where
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11:54 - 11:56Ukraine was forced to make a lot of
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11:56 - 11:59concessions, and really, the underlying
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11:59 - 12:01issue was never resolved, and there's
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12:01 - 12:03hostility between Ukraine and Russia,
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12:03 - 12:06you'd basically have a rerun of the Minsk
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12:06 - 12:09one and two accords after 2014, right?
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12:10 - 12:13So I think you could envision a scenario
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12:13 - 12:14in which you say, oh, well, you know,
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12:14 - 12:16you reach some sort of deal that at
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12:16 - 12:18this point, it seems like will please the
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12:18 - 12:20Russian side much more so than the
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12:20 - 12:20Ukrainian one.
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12:20 - 12:23Although it is worth keeping in mind two
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12:23 - 12:24things, one that like, you know, a couple
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12:24 - 12:26months ago, if you looked at polling,
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12:26 - 12:28public opinion polling in Ukraine, there
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12:28 - 12:30was a plurality or a slim majority of
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12:30 - 12:32people who said, yeah, we want a deal,
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12:32 - 12:33we hope we can get on with Trump.
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12:34 - 12:36That has changed slightly, I think,
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12:36 - 12:38because of the systematic humiliations
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12:38 - 12:41that Trump has visited upon, you know,
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12:41 - 12:43Ukraine's leadership and Ukrainians in
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12:43 - 12:43general.
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12:43 - 12:45And I think now that their resolve is
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12:45 - 12:45sort of hardening.
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12:45 - 12:47So again, that's another example of this
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12:47 - 12:48administration being very
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12:48 - 12:49counterproductive.
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12:49 - 12:50But if you assume that there's like, you
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12:50 - 12:52know, the space for making a deal, fine.
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12:52 - 12:54I think, you know, the question is, what
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12:54 - 12:55happens the day after that?
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12:55 - 12:58If we have the precedent of 2014 leading
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12:58 - 13:03to 2022, then how do you avoid having
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13:03 - 13:06a deal reached today leading to another
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13:06 - 13:08conflict five years down the line or
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13:08 - 13:09seven years down the line?
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13:09 - 13:09Right.
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13:10 - 13:12So I think that's the big question that
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13:12 - 13:13we really should be thinking about what's
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13:13 - 13:15going to happen after that deal.
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13:15 - 13:15Right.
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13:15 - 13:17And, you know, I do want to ask
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13:17 - 13:19you about what you think would be the
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13:19 - 13:22best case scenario, the best solution, if
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13:22 - 13:22you will.
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13:22 - 13:25But first, I want to also discuss the
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13:25 - 13:26European side of this.
-
13:27 - 13:29So this month has also seen Ursula von
-
13:29 - 13:32der Leyen unveil a plan to rearm Europe,
-
13:32 - 13:35announcing we are in an era of
-
13:35 - 13:36rearmament.
-
13:37 - 13:39This includes defence investment loans to
-
13:39 - 13:42member states, use of the EU budget to
-
13:42 - 13:45direct more funds towards defence related
-
13:45 - 13:47investments and deploying private
-
13:47 - 13:47capital.
-
13:48 - 13:50How do you regard this initiative?
-
13:50 - 13:54Um, okay, I'll say a couple of things
-
13:54 - 13:57about it that I think are good, because
-
13:57 - 13:59then I have several misgivings that I
-
13:59 - 14:00want to explore it at night.
-
14:00 - 14:02I think to some extent, it is better
-
14:02 - 14:04than the alternative of what Trump was
-
14:04 - 14:06proposing, right, which was that each
-
14:06 - 14:08European state raise defence spending to
-
14:08 - 14:095% of GDP.
-
14:09 - 14:12And it's good in that it takes the
-
14:12 - 14:15EU as the political subject that needs to
-
14:15 - 14:16make these decisions.
-
14:16 - 14:18So it's not NATO, which at this point
-
14:18 - 14:20is, I think, you know, becoming more and
-
14:20 - 14:21more dysfunctional with each passing day,
-
14:22 - 14:22right?
-
14:22 - 14:24So it's the EU that needs to take
-
14:24 - 14:26its own defence seriously and become
-
14:26 - 14:27autonomous at a time when it's being
-
14:27 - 14:30threatened by both Trump and Putin,
-
14:31 - 14:31right?
-
14:31 - 14:33So that's what I think is good about
-
14:33 - 14:34the deal.
-
14:34 - 14:35And the fact that is like, you know,
-
14:36 - 14:38the approach is sort of ambition when you
-
14:38 - 14:41look at, well, not exactly the scale of
-
14:41 - 14:42billions that is mobilised, because here
-
14:42 - 14:44there's always a bit of creative
-
14:44 - 14:45accounting that we're used to see from
-
14:45 - 14:46Brussels, right?
-
14:46 - 14:48So I think if you compare it to
-
14:48 - 14:50next generation EU, it's lacking in that
-
14:50 - 14:50respect.
-
14:50 - 14:52But when you when you take into
-
14:52 - 14:53consideration the fact that it's
-
14:53 - 14:55happening at the same time as Germany,
-
14:55 - 14:57for example, reforms its debt rate,
-
14:57 - 14:59right, the constitutional amendment, and,
-
15:00 - 15:01you know, makes it more flexible, that
-
15:01 - 15:03just happened today, then you get a sense
-
15:03 - 15:05that there's sort of ambition to match
-
15:05 - 15:07what otherwise would be just like lofty
-
15:07 - 15:08declarations.
-
15:08 - 15:10So what I think is more problematic about
-
15:10 - 15:14it is that it basically thinks about
-
15:14 - 15:14European defence.
-
15:15 - 15:16And what they do is like you start
-
15:16 - 15:17with what you have, and you work towards
-
15:17 - 15:18the number, right?
-
15:18 - 15:19This is the way that all these
-
15:19 - 15:20discussions unfold.
-
15:21 - 15:22So what do you have is like, European
-
15:22 - 15:24defence, when you look at overall
-
15:24 - 15:26spending numbers, it's not actually a
-
15:26 - 15:28small number, you know, we're used to
-
15:28 - 15:30thinking that Europe doesn't spend, that
-
15:30 - 15:31the EU doesn't spend enough on defence.
-
15:31 - 15:32And when you look at the aggregate
-
15:32 - 15:34numbers, depending on the metrics you
-
15:34 - 15:35use, but we do spend several times more
-
15:35 - 15:36than Russia does.
-
15:37 - 15:39And if you also take the UK into
-
15:39 - 15:40consideration, right, sort of these like,
-
15:41 - 15:43like minded allies, then you have almost
-
15:43 - 15:45twice the defence budget of China.
-
15:45 - 15:47So that's not an insignificant number by
-
15:47 - 15:47any means.
-
15:47 - 15:50The problem is, and you know, this is
-
15:50 - 15:51sort of well known by now that it's
-
15:51 - 15:53extraordinarily inefficient, because it's
-
15:53 - 15:55fragmented and sort of 27 different
-
15:55 - 15:56armies.
-
15:56 - 15:57And so you don't generate economies of
-
15:57 - 15:59scale, you don't generate the sort of
-
15:59 - 16:02investment you would need to have a
-
16:02 - 16:04competitive defence industry that spans
-
16:04 - 16:05the entire union and so forth.
-
16:06 - 16:07So the problem that I see is what
-
16:07 - 16:10this programme does is mainly it focusses on
-
16:10 - 16:11national defence budgets and says, yeah,
-
16:11 - 16:13you can raise them, we expect to get
-
16:13 - 16:16650, I think it's 600, 650 billion euros
-
16:16 - 16:16out of that.
-
16:17 - 16:19And we will loosen the fiscal rules so
-
16:19 - 16:21that this doesn't immediately fall into
-
16:21 - 16:23the excessive deficit procedure, right,
-
16:23 - 16:25for countries like Spain, for example, or
-
16:25 - 16:26for most European countries who have to
-
16:26 - 16:27undergo this investment.
-
16:28 - 16:29Now, how long would that last for?
-
16:29 - 16:31Is that the way to like build a
-
16:31 - 16:32European defence capability?
-
16:32 - 16:34I'm very sceptical of it, right?
-
16:34 - 16:36The way I would go about it is
-
16:36 - 16:37slightly different.
-
16:37 - 16:39I would think like, okay, so we're in
-
16:39 - 16:42one of those rare moments of crisis in
-
16:42 - 16:44the EU right now, similar to the COVID
-
16:44 - 16:46crisis, where the more ambitious
-
16:46 - 16:48solutions are also the more pragmatic,
-
16:48 - 16:48right?
-
16:48 - 16:50Usually it's the opposite, right?
-
16:50 - 16:52It's like, oh, you know, we're asking for
-
16:52 - 16:52a pie in the sky.
-
16:52 - 16:54So I think you should start with like
-
16:54 - 16:56the most ambitious proposal you can
-
16:56 - 16:59consider and then work with that towards,
-
16:59 - 17:01you know, landing that on like the
-
17:01 - 17:02framework that you can work with.
-
17:04 - 17:05And so what would that look like?
-
17:05 - 17:07I think it would entail acknowledging
-
17:07 - 17:10that yes, there is a security threat,
-
17:11 - 17:13even if the Ukraine situation is solved
-
17:13 - 17:14immediately, right?
-
17:14 - 17:16You need to have the deterrence
-
17:16 - 17:20capability to avoid a scenario like 2014
-
17:20 - 17:22to 2022, like what we were talking about
-
17:22 - 17:22before.
-
17:23 - 17:24But then it should be the EU that
-
17:24 - 17:26provides that, not NATO.
-
17:26 - 17:27You should not rely on the United States.
-
17:27 - 17:29The United States is not an ally in
-
17:29 - 17:30any sense of the word anymore.
-
17:31 - 17:32So you need to do this on your
-
17:32 - 17:33own.
-
17:33 - 17:36And you also need to define security very
-
17:36 - 17:38broadly, I think, for this to work.
-
17:39 - 17:40So yes, a part of it has to
-
17:40 - 17:41do with like defence, right?
-
17:41 - 17:42And what we were just talking about.
-
17:42 - 17:44And this is what usually all the
-
17:44 - 17:45conversation focusses on.
-
17:45 - 17:46And that's part of the deal.
-
17:47 - 17:49But there's other stuff that the EU needs
-
17:49 - 17:52to do to actually establish a security
-
17:52 - 17:53worthy of that name.
-
17:53 - 17:55So at least three other areas besides
-
17:55 - 17:55defence.
-
17:56 - 17:57One would be climate security.
-
17:58 - 17:59You know, you need to become energy
-
17:59 - 18:01independent, not just from Russia and oil
-
18:01 - 18:03and gas, but from the United States or
-
18:03 - 18:04the Gulf states.
-
18:04 - 18:05And that involves being very ambitious
-
18:05 - 18:07with the ongoing green transition.
-
18:08 - 18:09So you need to double down on that,
-
18:09 - 18:11not cut your resources to focus
-
18:11 - 18:12exclusively on defence.
-
18:13 - 18:14If you adopt a broad conception of
-
18:14 - 18:17security, that is also something that you
-
18:17 - 18:18need to take into consideration.
-
18:18 - 18:19You can't just leave it in the back
-
18:19 - 18:22burner and expect things to get better in
-
18:22 - 18:22the future.
-
18:23 - 18:25You also need to think of economic
-
18:25 - 18:25security, right?
-
18:25 - 18:27In terms of having a financial
-
18:27 - 18:29architecture that does not depend on the
-
18:29 - 18:31dollar system or US payment platforms,
-
18:31 - 18:31right?
-
18:31 - 18:33That involves anything from having a more
-
18:33 - 18:35internationalised euro to having a
-
18:35 - 18:36digital euro as a tool for payments,
-
18:36 - 18:37right?
-
18:37 - 18:39Like you can get really down to the
-
18:39 - 18:40weeds of like the policies that you need
-
18:40 - 18:40for this.
-
18:40 - 18:42But there's a big plank that has to
-
18:42 - 18:45do with your economic model, the fiscal
-
18:45 - 18:47rules that are extremely outdated, even
-
18:47 - 18:48after this programme, right?
-
18:48 - 18:49They should be completely overhauled if
-
18:49 - 18:50you really want to meet the challenge
-
18:50 - 18:51that you face right now.
-
18:52 - 18:54Fourth area, and final one, would be sort
-
18:54 - 18:56of security from a social standpoint.
-
18:56 - 18:58If you do all these things and at
-
18:58 - 18:59the same time you have to do austerity
-
18:59 - 19:00because you have to balance a budget,
-
19:01 - 19:02then that sort of defeats the purpose of
-
19:02 - 19:03any of this.
-
19:03 - 19:04Especially keeping in mind that we sort
-
19:04 - 19:06of know by now and there's considerable
-
19:06 - 19:07evidence that doing austerity, doing
-
19:07 - 19:09budgetary cuts, trimming down the welfare
-
19:09 - 19:11state, actually empowers the very friends
-
19:11 - 19:13of Trump and Putin that are already
-
19:13 - 19:15reasonably strong in a lot of European
-
19:15 - 19:15states.
-
19:15 - 19:17So if you want to stop the far
-
19:17 - 19:19right, and if there's anything in the EU
-
19:19 - 19:20that is worth fighting for, it's probably
-
19:20 - 19:22a socioeconomic model that, you know,
-
19:22 - 19:24provides social security in the form of
-
19:24 - 19:26the welfare state, public health care,
-
19:26 - 19:27public education, pensions, you name it.
-
19:27 - 19:29So that has to be like a big
-
19:29 - 19:29part of it.
-
19:29 - 19:30And so you get these four things and
-
19:30 - 19:31then you think, okay, how are we going
-
19:31 - 19:32to pay for them?
-
19:32 - 19:35And then I think, you know, a mixture
-
19:35 - 19:38of having more mutualised European debt,
-
19:38 - 19:40like next generation, and having its own,
-
19:40 - 19:44you know, fiscal capacity in terms of, I
-
19:44 - 19:45don't know, I would consider not just
-
19:45 - 19:47punishing Russian oligarchs, but taxing
-
19:47 - 19:50the activity of American tech oligarchs
-
19:50 - 19:52for the EU to generate its own resources.
-
19:52 - 19:53And there are ways to do that, right?
-
19:53 - 19:55And you can talk about Russian stranded
-
19:55 - 19:57assets and a number of other sources of
-
19:57 - 19:58revenue that you can tax.
-
19:58 - 20:00So you'd have to be much more broad
-
20:00 - 20:02in your conception of security and not
-
20:02 - 20:04just focus on the defence industry and
-
20:04 - 20:05defence spending from a national
-
20:05 - 20:06perspective.
-
20:06 - 20:08Because ultimately, I mean, I hope this
-
20:08 - 20:09doesn't happen.
-
20:09 - 20:10And there's still ongoing discussion.
-
20:10 - 20:13But if this ends up being an excuse
-
20:13 - 20:15for member states to spend more money
-
20:15 - 20:17without clear strategic goals, and that
-
20:17 - 20:19ends up being, well, I don't know, buying
-
20:19 - 20:21American equipment, and increasing a
-
20:21 - 20:22security dependence that is already
-
20:22 - 20:24there, then you've doubled down on a
-
20:24 - 20:25problem, right?
-
20:26 - 20:27So, you know, I think there's some good
-
20:27 - 20:28elements to it.
-
20:28 - 20:29But I think it could be much improved
-
20:29 - 20:32and still needs a broader definition of
-
20:32 - 20:33security and much more fiscal ambition.
-
20:33 - 20:37So basically, are you saying you think it
-
20:37 - 20:41would be preferable for member states to
-
20:41 - 20:45make less of a decision here and for
-
20:45 - 20:47the EU to have a more sort of
-
20:47 - 20:49coordinated plan?
-
20:49 - 20:53And I'm just wondering, do you think the
-
20:53 - 20:54European Union, and I'm not talking
-
20:54 - 20:56Europe, I'm talking the European Union,
-
20:56 - 20:59would ever take that non-aligned
-
20:59 - 21:01perspective?
-
21:01 - 21:03Do you think that's plausible?
-
21:03 - 21:05Don't you feel like maybe European
-
21:05 - 21:08nations themselves would be more likely
-
21:08 - 21:12to, if they were democratic enough to not
-
21:12 - 21:14be sort of that constrained by the
-
21:14 - 21:17European Union, like, don't you feel like
-
21:17 - 21:19they would try to be non-aligned?
-
21:19 - 21:21Obviously, I'm kind of generalising here.
-
21:21 - 21:23But I don't know, I'm just wondering, do
-
21:23 - 21:25you have hopes in the EU?
-
21:25 - 21:28Or do you have hopes in Europe?
-
21:28 - 21:30And yeah, what do you think is more
-
21:30 - 21:32likely like for the EU to actually take
-
21:32 - 21:35a non-aligned stance or for European
-
21:35 - 21:35countries?
-
21:35 - 21:37Because I don't know, I just struggle to
-
21:37 - 21:39believe that the EU would ever do that.
-
21:39 - 21:41So I kind of have the opposite reaction
-
21:41 - 21:43in that I would have more hope in
-
21:43 - 21:45European nations individually kind of
-
21:45 - 21:48taking that sort of stance and kind of
-
21:48 - 21:51making the right investments, or Europe
-
21:51 - 21:54as a sort of region rather than the
-
21:54 - 21:55EU specifically.
-
21:56 - 21:58But let me know your thoughts about this.
-
21:59 - 22:01So I think there's one thing that is
-
22:01 - 22:03like, okay, should the EU pull its
-
22:03 - 22:04capacities together?
-
22:04 - 22:05That's one thing, right?
-
22:05 - 22:07And have like a more federated approach
-
22:07 - 22:09to these threats that it faces now, and
-
22:09 - 22:11these challenges in the form of Russia,
-
22:11 - 22:12of the United States, of, you know,
-
22:13 - 22:14having to develop its own autonomy.
-
22:15 - 22:16And then the other question is like about
-
22:16 - 22:17Europe's alignment, right?
-
22:17 - 22:19These are like, I'm kind of going to
-
22:19 - 22:20try and parse them out because I think
-
22:20 - 22:21they're slightly distinct.
-
22:21 - 22:22So the question, the way this is always
-
22:22 - 22:24posed is this question of, oh, should you
-
22:24 - 22:26have a European army, right?
-
22:26 - 22:27And usually this is sort of like
-
22:27 - 22:30something that doesn't get discussed a
-
22:30 - 22:32lot beyond the theoretical level, right?
-
22:32 - 22:34Because there are like many operational
-
22:34 - 22:36and political hurdles along the way, but
-
22:36 - 22:38mostly it's a question of political will,
-
22:38 - 22:38right?
-
22:38 - 22:40That European states are reticent to
-
22:40 - 22:41share that degree of sovereignty.
-
22:42 - 22:44Now, I just think if you really are
-
22:44 - 22:46serious about having deterrence
-
22:46 - 22:49capability against Russia, which I think
-
22:49 - 22:50is very different from sort of getting
-
22:50 - 22:52involved in warmongering, right?
-
22:52 - 22:53After all, like Russia is the country
-
22:53 - 22:55that has the largest nuclear stockpile in
-
22:55 - 22:55the world.
-
22:55 - 22:56So I think anyone who was actively
-
22:56 - 22:59engaging in pushing them towards a war
-
22:59 - 23:01would be an idiot to do so.
-
23:01 - 23:02But I do think you need to develop
-
23:02 - 23:03deterrent capability.
-
23:04 - 23:05It makes much more sense to do that
-
23:05 - 23:07on an EU level than for each European
-
23:07 - 23:08state on its own.
-
23:08 - 23:10Unless you're willing to sustain, I don't
-
23:10 - 23:12know, five, six percent of the GDP of
-
23:12 - 23:14every European state spent, or in my
-
23:14 - 23:16view, wasted on defence, right?
-
23:16 - 23:19So it's an idea, I mean, whose time
-
23:19 - 23:21has come in the sense that it's the
-
23:21 - 23:23easiest way out of this problem.
-
23:23 - 23:24Now, then the question, of course, is
-
23:24 - 23:30like, what does a more united EU in
-
23:30 - 23:33the realms of foreign policy and defence
-
23:33 - 23:35policy stand for in the world, right?
-
23:35 - 23:37That question of like, oh, can Europe be
-
23:37 - 23:38non-aligned?
-
23:38 - 23:40I would say Europe today is sort of
-
23:40 - 23:40disaligned, right?
-
23:41 - 23:43Because correct me if I'm wrong, but the
-
23:43 - 23:45way you would have posed this question
-
23:45 - 23:47two months ago is that the EU is
-
23:47 - 23:49overly aligned with the United States and
-
23:49 - 23:50just following the United States
-
23:50 - 23:51initiative.
-
23:51 - 23:52Overnight, that has changed very
-
23:52 - 23:53dramatically.
-
23:54 - 23:57And so the EU already de facto finds
-
23:57 - 23:59itself in a place where it's having to
-
23:59 - 24:02come up with its own autonomous posture
-
24:02 - 24:04in regards, for example, to what happened
-
24:04 - 24:04in Ukraine, right?
-
24:05 - 24:06Now, that position is the one it was
-
24:06 - 24:08holding before the United States changed
-
24:08 - 24:08gears.
-
24:09 - 24:10But I think it's an interesting process.
-
24:10 - 24:12Now, I will say about that, that hasn't
-
24:12 - 24:15come to fruition because European leaders
-
24:15 - 24:16suddenly took that decision.
-
24:16 - 24:19It's because Trump snubbed them and then
-
24:19 - 24:21humiliated a few of them and has done
-
24:21 - 24:24everything within his power to make that
-
24:24 - 24:25outcome possible.
-
24:25 - 24:27So I would think the challenge is not
-
24:27 - 24:29for the EU to strike its own path
-
24:29 - 24:30away from Trump now.
-
24:30 - 24:32The question is maintaining this after
-
24:32 - 24:33Trump is gone.
-
24:33 - 24:35And I'm sort of looking too far into
-
24:35 - 24:35the future.
-
24:35 - 24:37But if you think of, you know, what
-
24:37 - 24:39happened during the Biden presidency, or
-
24:39 - 24:40even if you want to go further back
-
24:40 - 24:42in time after the Iraq war, when there
-
24:42 - 24:44was also talk of the need of becoming
-
24:44 - 24:46more detached in foreign policy positions
-
24:46 - 24:48from the United States, what do you see
-
24:48 - 24:50is that when the good times come back,
-
24:50 - 24:51and that usually means when there's a
-
24:51 - 24:53Democrat in the White House, Europeans
-
24:53 - 24:54become complacent.
-
24:54 - 24:55So this is an effort that you really
-
24:55 - 24:57need to sustain in time.
-
24:57 - 25:00Now, finally, and this is the hardest
-
25:00 - 25:01question to which I don't have an answer
-
25:01 - 25:03other than to say that the EU is,
-
25:03 - 25:05in spite of like making progress on all
-
25:05 - 25:06these areas, and I think a lot of
-
25:06 - 25:08this is actually interesting and
-
25:08 - 25:10worthwhile, but it has some huge flaws in
-
25:10 - 25:12regards to how it aligns in the world,
-
25:13 - 25:13right?
-
25:13 - 25:16Just consider the now ongoing genocide in
-
25:16 - 25:17Gaza, right?
-
25:17 - 25:19We learned today that Israel resumed
-
25:19 - 25:21operations and killed between three and
-
25:21 - 25:23400 Palestinians in one night.
-
25:24 - 25:25And the EU has been shamefully muted on
-
25:25 - 25:27this issue, except for a few voices,
-
25:28 - 25:28right?
-
25:28 - 25:31And for the most part, has acquiesced to
-
25:31 - 25:33what is basically a genocide on its
-
25:33 - 25:33doorstep.
-
25:34 - 25:38So I think striking a sort of, you
-
25:38 - 25:40know, assertive position in defence of
-
25:40 - 25:43Ukraine's right to defend itself from
-
25:43 - 25:46annihilation, in the face of an
-
25:46 - 25:48imperialist neighbour, it's all very well
-
25:48 - 25:48and good.
-
25:49 - 25:50Like, I'm all for that position.
-
25:50 - 25:52I just think there should be coherence.
-
25:52 - 25:54It should also be held in Gaza, right?
-
25:54 - 25:56Like, you know, the EU should be much
-
25:56 - 25:58firmer in its condemnation of Israel.
-
25:58 - 26:00So that's one thing where its present
-
26:00 - 26:03disposition, its present alignment is
-
26:03 - 26:04very much lacking and very disappointing.
-
26:05 - 26:06The same is true of migration policy,
-
26:06 - 26:07right?
-
26:07 - 26:10I mean, we like to act scandalised at
-
26:10 - 26:12the policies that the Trump
-
26:12 - 26:14administration applies, but they're not
-
26:14 - 26:14that different.
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26:15 - 26:16And in fact, many of them are directly
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26:16 - 26:17inspired in what we do in our own
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26:17 - 26:18borders.
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26:19 - 26:21So, you know, I do think the EU
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26:21 - 26:23is taking several steps to become more
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26:23 - 26:24autonomous from the US.
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26:24 - 26:27I am sceptical that the way it is
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26:27 - 26:29doing so is the best, the most useful,
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26:29 - 26:31and that it's not, that it doesn't have
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26:31 - 26:32several aspects of it that can be
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26:32 - 26:33counterproductive.
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26:33 - 26:36But I realise that there are some areas
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26:36 - 26:37where the state of affairs right now is
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26:37 - 26:38pretty awful.
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26:38 - 26:40It certainly is.
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26:40 - 26:42And I want to dive a little deeper
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26:42 - 26:44into this topic of non-alignment.
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26:45 - 26:49I think the EU, yes, it's not complacent
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26:49 - 26:51to the Trump presidency.
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26:51 - 26:54But I mean, I think it still is
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26:54 - 26:58to the sort of what they understand as
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26:58 - 27:03the default US, right, which is Democrats
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27:03 - 27:07or, you know, never Trump Republicans and
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27:07 - 27:10a politics of the sort.
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27:10 - 27:14And meanwhile, at DiEM25, we aim for a
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27:14 - 27:16non-aligned, which doesn't mean neutral
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27:16 - 27:17Europe.
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27:18 - 27:20Do you believe this is currently a
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27:20 - 27:21possibility?
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27:22 - 27:24And how do you believe it would impact
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27:24 - 27:26the potential for more democratic
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27:26 - 27:29European nations if we move in this
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27:29 - 27:30direction?
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27:30 - 27:32Yeah, I mean, I think it's tied to
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27:32 - 27:33what I was saying before.
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27:33 - 27:35But so let me reframe it in a
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27:35 - 27:36more accurate way.
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27:36 - 27:39I think the EU, again, not by its
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27:39 - 27:42own merits, but because of the effects of
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27:42 - 27:43what Trump has done in two months, has
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27:43 - 27:46become sort of disaligned from the US,
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27:46 - 27:46right?
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27:48 - 27:50And I am a bit, yeah, I will
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27:50 - 27:53say I am hopeful that this is not
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27:53 - 27:56just a passing sort of fleeting sentiment
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27:56 - 27:58of like, oh, you know, Trump is horrible.
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27:59 - 28:00Then we'll go back to business.
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28:00 - 28:02I want to think that there is a
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28:02 - 28:04learning process going on, especially in
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28:04 - 28:05the way that we had, you know, Biden
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28:05 - 28:07between these two Trump terms.
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28:07 - 28:09I mean, the way that events have unfolded
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28:09 - 28:11would mean that Europeans would be, you
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28:11 - 28:14know, profoundly obtuse not to continue
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28:14 - 28:16investing in becoming independent from
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28:16 - 28:18the United States after Trump is gone.
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28:18 - 28:21And who knows what will happen in four
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28:21 - 28:21years.
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28:22 - 28:25So on that regard, I'm, let's say, mildly
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28:25 - 28:26hopeful, or at least I've been surprised
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28:26 - 28:28by the degree of result I've seen from
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28:28 - 28:29key European figures.
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28:30 - 28:31So I would not have expected to see
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28:31 - 28:35a centre-right German politician say, my
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28:35 - 28:36first concern is becoming independent
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28:36 - 28:38from the United States, right?
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28:38 - 28:39I have to acknowledge that if I would
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28:39 - 28:41have been told, will you see this in
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28:41 - 28:43the next year, a couple months ago, I'd
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28:43 - 28:44have said, no, absolutely not.
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28:44 - 28:46You know, I think Europeans will try and
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28:46 - 28:48paper over their differences with Trump,
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28:48 - 28:50but fundamentally not change or, you
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28:50 - 28:50know, within.
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28:51 - 28:57So in that regard, yeah, but another, but
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28:57 - 28:58as I was saying before, if you look
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28:58 - 28:59at other issues, so if you look at
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28:59 - 29:01the Palestinian question, right, if you
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29:01 - 29:04look at migration policy, these are areas
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29:04 - 29:06that where there's no change and where
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29:06 - 29:08the current alignment or the current, you
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29:08 - 29:10know, posture to the extent that you has
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29:10 - 29:13a coherent posture, or the sum of the
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29:13 - 29:14different member states postures is
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29:14 - 29:15awful.
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29:15 - 29:17Now, there are a couple other instances,
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29:17 - 29:20which are a bit more, I guess, we
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29:20 - 29:22still need to wait and see what happens.
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29:22 - 29:24But so, for example, I would say, I'm
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29:24 - 29:25interested to see what happens within
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29:25 - 29:26relations with China.
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29:26 - 29:29I think if you want to become autonomous
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29:29 - 29:32from the US and, you know, secure from
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29:32 - 29:34Russia, and at the same time, you take
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29:34 - 29:36fighting climate change seriously, you
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29:36 - 29:39cannot afford to follow the US into a
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29:39 - 29:41confrontation with China into the Indo
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29:41 - 29:42-Pacific.
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29:42 - 29:42You just can't.
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29:42 - 29:44You need to find a better way to
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29:44 - 29:45engage with China, right?
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29:45 - 29:48So the EU famously has this plan, or
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29:48 - 29:51this platform where it views China as a
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29:51 - 29:52sort of, let me see if I get
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29:52 - 29:53this correctly, as the ones, it is a
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29:53 - 29:56partner, it is a competitor, and it is
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29:56 - 29:58a rival, and different, and depending on
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29:58 - 29:59what policies you look at.
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