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Trump, Ukraine and the Myth of a Democratic EU | Jorge Tamames Interview

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    [Tiare] Hello and welcome
    to the channel of DiEM25.
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    Today we are joined by Jorge Tamames.
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    He has a PhD from University College
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    Dublin and currently teaches European
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    Political Economy at the University
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    Carlos III of Madrid.
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    Jorge, thank you so much
    for joining us today.
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    How are you doing?
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    [Jorge] My pleasure.
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    Thanks for having me.
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    All is good here.
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    Rainy day in Madrid.
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    Rainy month, actually.
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    [Tiare] Yeah, we're both
    from Madrid, actually,
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    so we've had two madrileños in a row.
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    I want to start talking about the joint
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    press conference with President Volodymyr
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    Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump that
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    we recently saw because what we want to
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    touch upon today mainly is the
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    geopolitical tensions that are currently
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    happening, especially within Europe and
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    in relation to Ukraine.
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    And obviously we need to talk about this
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    joint press conference.
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    This event saw the Ukrainian and American
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    leaders confront each other in a blow-up
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    that ushers in a new phase of the
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    war in Ukraine, one under a Trump
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    presidency.
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    And I was wondering, what do you make
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    of the apparent antagonism between the
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    two leaders?
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    Well, the first thing that I'll say is
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    that I had to watch the clip several
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    times and this is not something that I
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    usually do.
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    My background is in foreign affairs.
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    I studied international relations.
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    I worked at a foreign policy journal in
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    the think tank for a while, so this
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    is sort of my bread and butter.
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    And I had never seen an exchange on
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    that level.
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    Just the humiliation of a guest who is
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    also a head of state in the White
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    House, in front of the press, with the
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    press participating in it.
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    I was shocked and I am not usually
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    one to be sort of shocked.
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    Trump has always generated this sort of
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    sometimes a bit prudish reaction
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    regarding, oh, he doesn't respect norms.
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    He doesn't respect due process.
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    He's like this vulgar guy.
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    And I usually don't have much patience
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    for that, but I was surprised.
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    I think on a formal level, it was
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    just something very different to watch.
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    And I think, I guess it goes to
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    the differences between his first
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    administration and the second one.
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    This is the kind of thing you would
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    have not seen in the first Trump White
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    House, because at the end of the day,
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    he had to rely on a lot of
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    people who were not Trump world
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    characters like he has around him now,
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    right?
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    These were more standard Republican
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    operators.
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    Rex Tillerson, the guy who first ran his
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    department of state, was a guy who came
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    from the big oil industry.
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    So like the more standard profiles you
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    would see in a normal Republican
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    administration.
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    So in a way, I had this feeling
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    that this was new ground.
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    This entire concern with Trump in the way
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    that he doesn't respect the way things
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    are usually done and so forth, I found
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    myself taking it a bit more seriously in
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    the last two months than I did in
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    the past.
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    Now, the question, what do I think it
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    represented in terms of the substance?
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    I'm not sure to what extent this style
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    is going to work for this administration
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    or not.
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    And what I mean by that is that
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    I think it was very counterproductive in
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    terms of, I mean, I think Trump has
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    been extraordinarily successful in
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    galvanising the EU to sort of become
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    independent or become more autonomous
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    from the U.S. with events like this
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    one or like J.D. Vance's visit in
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    the Munich Security Conference.
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    And this is something that was not on
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    the menu two months ago.
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    So the future German Chancellor Merz,
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    when he was running for office, his whole
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    deal was, oh no, we're going to get
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    along pretty well with Trump.
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    We'll be able to reach some deals.
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    He's not our favourite guy, but we can
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    actually live with this guy.
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    We'll be pragmatic.
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    And on election night, he said, my first
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    concern is to become independent from the
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    U.S. So I think this has been
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    the first effect of this change in forms
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    rather than substance, because in terms
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    of the substance, this is the stuff he
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    ran on.
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    Well, the UK stuff, not other stuff that
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    he's actually pushing and we can talk
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    about it.
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    But yeah, that's sort of my reading of
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    the whole scene.
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    At first I was shocked.
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    And then looking at the reaction, I
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    think, well, maybe they're not reading
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    the room correctly.
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    And I don't mean the room of the
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    meeting in which it took place, but like
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    the broader room of the way Europeans are
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    going to react, public opinion in Ukraine
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    might shift or ultimately whether Russia
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    will actually pick up on the deal that
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    is being offered to them at this point.
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    Right.
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    Just to check your thoughts on another
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    important point related to this newly
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    Trump administration era, the United
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    States and Ukraine plan to sign a
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    minerals deal, which has seen much
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    controversy.
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    According to the deal, Ukraine will
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    contribute 50 percent of future proceeds
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    from state owned mineral resources, oil
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    and gas to an investment fund, which will
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    then invest to promote the safety,
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    security and prosperity of Ukraine.
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    This deal appears to imply that private
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    companies will need to get involved in
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    the mining process within the vague
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    information that we have been receiving
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    about this deal.
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    Do you believe, given what we know, do
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    you believe it can be perceived as simply
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    laying bare the American interest in
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    exploiting Ukrainian natural resources
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    for the benefit of the American
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    capitalist class?
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    Is there anything in this for working
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    class Americans?
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    OK, so let's start with the last part.
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    Is there something in this for working
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    class Americans?
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    I'd say no.
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    I mean, on the face of it, there
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    doesn't seem to be much.
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    I can have some sympathy for the people
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    who voted for the first Trump term,
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    right, with a working class background,
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    expecting to get sort of a better deal
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    than what was being offered by Hillary
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    Clinton in 2017.
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    But at this point, I think with Trump,
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    you sort of know what you're getting to
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    an extent.
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    I'll qualify that a bit further on.
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    But in terms of what is the American
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    working class getting out of this deal, I
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    don't know if this deal is viable at
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    all.
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    So sometimes it's hard to take these
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    announcements on their face.
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    And usually they create outrage, of
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    course, because it looks like a shakeup
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    and it seems to be a shakeup in
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    exchange for some very dubious security
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    guarantees.
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    Now, I'm not an expert in rare earths
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    or their processing or critical minerals.
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    So take this with a grain of salt,
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    pun unintended.
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    But from what I've read, it seems like
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    a lot of these rare earths, they come
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    from old maps from back in the Soviet
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    Union in the 70s and 80s.
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    It's not sure whether they can be mined
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    or they're economically viable as of
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    today.
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    A lot of the places that have to
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    be mined are sort of where the fighting
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    is taking place.
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    So none of that was a problem because
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    you even managed to get a peace deal.
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    So then presumably you'd get American
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    companies that go there and invest in the
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    mining process, right?
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    Mining is an economic sector that
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    requires a lot of capital investment,
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    long time horizons before you can get
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    credit on your investment and sort of a
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    very stable judicial and regulatory
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    framework.
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    These are not things you're going to be
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    getting right now in the Donbass region
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    of Ukraine or even in Ukraine or the
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    Russian or the full Russian occupied
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    areas.
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    So I don't see how this deal amounts
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    to much other than something that, you
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    know, Trump can announce and feel happy
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    about.
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    And I think here the experience of his
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    first term in office is instructive,
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    right?
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    We saw a lot of this during the
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    first Trump term.
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    So that's my general read on the deal.
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    So then it seems like it doesn't make
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    much sense.
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    But one of the interpretations I've heard
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    of this deal was that rather than coming
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    from the White House, it was something
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    that the Ukrainians and Zelensky pitched
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    to Donald Trump.
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    Again, if that is the case, that seems
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    to me a sort of genius move to
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    present him with a deal that he likes
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    and that is going to, you know, create
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    some shock and some stupor, but that
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    there's very little workable substance
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    behind it.
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    But ultimately, we'll have to wait and
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    see.
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    But I don't think this deal as of
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    now leading anywhere.
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    Yeah, I mean, I don't know.
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    I just personally felt like this was
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    just, you know, something it's like,
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    well, we should have known if the U
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    .S. is after anything or the EU.
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    Now we're going to get to that.
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    But if it's after anything would end up
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    be exploiting natural resources like I
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    think if we look at the history of
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    wars and the wars, especially that the U
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    .S. has enjoyed joining and pushing for.
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    I mean, I don't know.
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    I just I was quite shocked that anyone
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    would be shocked at the U.S. kind
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    of pursuing that kind of interest.
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    I mean, I was also shocked because this
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    was nowhere on the cards during the
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    campaign.
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    Right.
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    Yeah.
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    I'm not so much mistaken.
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    I don't remember hearing about this at
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    all throughout the past year.
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    Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm getting the
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    sense, you know, and this is something
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    that I think it's worth keeping in mind
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    because the pace of announcements from
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    this administration in the first month
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    and a half has been so overwhelming.
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    Sometimes it's just almost unavoidable
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    that you feel sort of demoralised and
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    overwhelmed and like you don't even have
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    a grip on what is happening.
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    And I think at points like that, it's
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    worth keeping in mind that these guys,
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    they won an election for a variety of
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    reasons.
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    But an important one was that there was
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    a critical mass of Americans who thought
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    that prices were too high and X were
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    too expensive.
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    Right.
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    So, you can say these were like economic
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    anxiety voters who voted because they
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    thought they were getting a lousy deal
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    with Biden.
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    And the Trump campaign did make a lot
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    of emphasis on prices being too high
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    throughout the campaign.
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    So those people voted with that in their
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    mind.
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    And what they got is mineral steel
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    invading the Panama Canal.
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    And it should be the first 50 per
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    state.
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    And we should also own Greenland.
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    I don't see how that is working very
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    well for your sort of working class
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    economic anxiety Trump voter in the long
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    term.
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    I don't think it's working for the stock
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    market either.
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    So you're like traditional Republican
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    who's just hoping to get a good return
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    on his investments from the Trump
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    presidency like happened last time when
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    the stock market was booming.
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    So I don't want to be too mechanistic
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    and say, oh, the economy doesn't work.
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    So he'll have like he'll run into
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    trouble.
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    But it's worth keeping in mind that we're
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    getting announcements of different deals
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    every day, but he's not delivering on the
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    basic deal that won the election for him.
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    Honestly, like I don't think a Trump
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    presidency works for anyone, obviously
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    not the working class, but also the vast
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    parts of the capitalist class.
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    I don't think or especially the
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    professional managerial class.
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    I don't think they're excited to have
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    him.
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    Hence Trump derangement syndrome.
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    Like I believe that is absolutely a
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    thing.
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    I wanted to ask you at the beginning
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    of this month of March, Trump halted
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    military aid to Ukraine, a cut that then
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    expanded to include all military
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    intelligence while acknowledging Russia's
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    guilt in illegally invading a sovereign
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    country.
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    We will probably agree that finding a
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    diplomatic solution that seeks to de
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    -escalate the military conflict should be
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    prioritised.
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    Do you believe these steps taken by
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    President Trump bear any positive aspects
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    at all, or are they counterproductive to
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    the sense?
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    Well, I'm going to give you my easy
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    answer, sort of a cop out.
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    But I do think it's too soon to
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    tell, because we don't know if this deal
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    at this stage, this compromise has buy in
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    from the Russians.
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    What we know is that the Ukrainian side
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    has sort of been strong armed to the
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    negotiating table.
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    Now, I think if you look at this
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    war, none of the sides were going to
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    get what they wanted originally.
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    So Russia wanted to topple the entirety
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    of the Ukrainian government, to march to
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    Kiev, to instal a puppet regime, and to
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    annex the four regions that it proclaimed
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    are part of new Russia.
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    This is a term they used to refer
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    to them.
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    And then on the Ukrainian side, at one
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    point, there was even talk of launching
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    an offensive and being able to retake
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    Crimea.
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    This was really always, always a far
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    -fetched idea.
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    So neither side got what it would
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    originally want from this war.
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    And so sooner or later, you're going to
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    have a negotiation, right?
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    Now, the question is, what does that
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    negotiation actually look like?
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    If you had a peace settlement now, where
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    Ukraine was forced to make a lot of
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    concessions, and really, the underlying
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    issue was never resolved, and there's
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    hostility between Ukraine and Russia,
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    you'd basically have a rerun of the Minsk
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    one and two accords after 2014, right?
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    So I think you could envision a scenario
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    in which you say, oh, well, you know,
  • 12:14 - 12:16
    you reach some sort of deal that at
  • 12:16 - 12:18
    this point, it seems like will please the
  • 12:18 - 12:20
    Russian side much more so than the
  • 12:20 - 12:20
    Ukrainian one.
  • 12:20 - 12:23
    Although it is worth keeping in mind two
  • 12:23 - 12:24
    things, one that like, you know, a couple
  • 12:24 - 12:26
    months ago, if you looked at polling,
  • 12:26 - 12:28
    public opinion polling in Ukraine, there
  • 12:28 - 12:30
    was a plurality or a slim majority of
  • 12:30 - 12:32
    people who said, yeah, we want a deal,
  • 12:32 - 12:33
    we hope we can get on with Trump.
  • 12:34 - 12:36
    That has changed slightly, I think,
  • 12:36 - 12:38
    because of the systematic humiliations
  • 12:38 - 12:41
    that Trump has visited upon, you know,
  • 12:41 - 12:43
    Ukraine's leadership and Ukrainians in
  • 12:43 - 12:43
    general.
  • 12:43 - 12:45
    And I think now that their resolve is
  • 12:45 - 12:45
    sort of hardening.
  • 12:45 - 12:47
    So again, that's another example of this
  • 12:47 - 12:48
    administration being very
  • 12:48 - 12:49
    counterproductive.
  • 12:49 - 12:50
    But if you assume that there's like, you
  • 12:50 - 12:52
    know, the space for making a deal, fine.
  • 12:52 - 12:54
    I think, you know, the question is, what
  • 12:54 - 12:55
    happens the day after that?
  • 12:55 - 12:58
    If we have the precedent of 2014 leading
  • 12:58 - 13:03
    to 2022, then how do you avoid having
  • 13:03 - 13:06
    a deal reached today leading to another
  • 13:06 - 13:08
    conflict five years down the line or
  • 13:08 - 13:09
    seven years down the line?
  • 13:09 - 13:09
    Right.
  • 13:10 - 13:12
    So I think that's the big question that
  • 13:12 - 13:13
    we really should be thinking about what's
  • 13:13 - 13:15
    going to happen after that deal.
  • 13:15 - 13:15
    Right.
  • 13:15 - 13:17
    And, you know, I do want to ask
  • 13:17 - 13:19
    you about what you think would be the
  • 13:19 - 13:22
    best case scenario, the best solution, if
  • 13:22 - 13:22
    you will.
  • 13:22 - 13:25
    But first, I want to also discuss the
  • 13:25 - 13:26
    European side of this.
  • 13:27 - 13:29
    So this month has also seen Ursula von
  • 13:29 - 13:32
    der Leyen unveil a plan to rearm Europe,
  • 13:32 - 13:35
    announcing we are in an era of
  • 13:35 - 13:36
    rearmament.
  • 13:37 - 13:39
    This includes defence investment loans to
  • 13:39 - 13:42
    member states, use of the EU budget to
  • 13:42 - 13:45
    direct more funds towards defence related
  • 13:45 - 13:47
    investments and deploying private
  • 13:47 - 13:47
    capital.
  • 13:48 - 13:50
    How do you regard this initiative?
  • 13:50 - 13:54
    Um, okay, I'll say a couple of things
  • 13:54 - 13:57
    about it that I think are good, because
  • 13:57 - 13:59
    then I have several misgivings that I
  • 13:59 - 14:00
    want to explore it at night.
  • 14:00 - 14:02
    I think to some extent, it is better
  • 14:02 - 14:04
    than the alternative of what Trump was
  • 14:04 - 14:06
    proposing, right, which was that each
  • 14:06 - 14:08
    European state raise defence spending to
  • 14:08 - 14:09
    5% of GDP.
  • 14:09 - 14:12
    And it's good in that it takes the
  • 14:12 - 14:15
    EU as the political subject that needs to
  • 14:15 - 14:16
    make these decisions.
  • 14:16 - 14:18
    So it's not NATO, which at this point
  • 14:18 - 14:20
    is, I think, you know, becoming more and
  • 14:20 - 14:21
    more dysfunctional with each passing day,
  • 14:22 - 14:22
    right?
  • 14:22 - 14:24
    So it's the EU that needs to take
  • 14:24 - 14:26
    its own defence seriously and become
  • 14:26 - 14:27
    autonomous at a time when it's being
  • 14:27 - 14:30
    threatened by both Trump and Putin,
  • 14:31 - 14:31
    right?
  • 14:31 - 14:33
    So that's what I think is good about
  • 14:33 - 14:34
    the deal.
  • 14:34 - 14:35
    And the fact that is like, you know,
  • 14:36 - 14:38
    the approach is sort of ambition when you
  • 14:38 - 14:41
    look at, well, not exactly the scale of
  • 14:41 - 14:42
    billions that is mobilised, because here
  • 14:42 - 14:44
    there's always a bit of creative
  • 14:44 - 14:45
    accounting that we're used to see from
  • 14:45 - 14:46
    Brussels, right?
  • 14:46 - 14:48
    So I think if you compare it to
  • 14:48 - 14:50
    next generation EU, it's lacking in that
  • 14:50 - 14:50
    respect.
  • 14:50 - 14:52
    But when you when you take into
  • 14:52 - 14:53
    consideration the fact that it's
  • 14:53 - 14:55
    happening at the same time as Germany,
  • 14:55 - 14:57
    for example, reforms its debt rate,
  • 14:57 - 14:59
    right, the constitutional amendment, and,
  • 15:00 - 15:01
    you know, makes it more flexible, that
  • 15:01 - 15:03
    just happened today, then you get a sense
  • 15:03 - 15:05
    that there's sort of ambition to match
  • 15:05 - 15:07
    what otherwise would be just like lofty
  • 15:07 - 15:08
    declarations.
  • 15:08 - 15:10
    So what I think is more problematic about
  • 15:10 - 15:14
    it is that it basically thinks about
  • 15:14 - 15:14
    European defence.
  • 15:15 - 15:16
    And what they do is like you start
  • 15:16 - 15:17
    with what you have, and you work towards
  • 15:17 - 15:18
    the number, right?
  • 15:18 - 15:19
    This is the way that all these
  • 15:19 - 15:20
    discussions unfold.
  • 15:21 - 15:22
    So what do you have is like, European
  • 15:22 - 15:24
    defence, when you look at overall
  • 15:24 - 15:26
    spending numbers, it's not actually a
  • 15:26 - 15:28
    small number, you know, we're used to
  • 15:28 - 15:30
    thinking that Europe doesn't spend, that
  • 15:30 - 15:31
    the EU doesn't spend enough on defence.
  • 15:31 - 15:32
    And when you look at the aggregate
  • 15:32 - 15:34
    numbers, depending on the metrics you
  • 15:34 - 15:35
    use, but we do spend several times more
  • 15:35 - 15:36
    than Russia does.
  • 15:37 - 15:39
    And if you also take the UK into
  • 15:39 - 15:40
    consideration, right, sort of these like,
  • 15:41 - 15:43
    like minded allies, then you have almost
  • 15:43 - 15:45
    twice the defence budget of China.
  • 15:45 - 15:47
    So that's not an insignificant number by
  • 15:47 - 15:47
    any means.
  • 15:47 - 15:50
    The problem is, and you know, this is
  • 15:50 - 15:51
    sort of well known by now that it's
  • 15:51 - 15:53
    extraordinarily inefficient, because it's
  • 15:53 - 15:55
    fragmented and sort of 27 different
  • 15:55 - 15:56
    armies.
  • 15:56 - 15:57
    And so you don't generate economies of
  • 15:57 - 15:59
    scale, you don't generate the sort of
  • 15:59 - 16:02
    investment you would need to have a
  • 16:02 - 16:04
    competitive defence industry that spans
  • 16:04 - 16:05
    the entire union and so forth.
  • 16:06 - 16:07
    So the problem that I see is what
  • 16:07 - 16:10
    this programme does is mainly it focusses on
  • 16:10 - 16:11
    national defence budgets and says, yeah,
  • 16:11 - 16:13
    you can raise them, we expect to get
  • 16:13 - 16:16
    650, I think it's 600, 650 billion euros
  • 16:16 - 16:16
    out of that.
  • 16:17 - 16:19
    And we will loosen the fiscal rules so
  • 16:19 - 16:21
    that this doesn't immediately fall into
  • 16:21 - 16:23
    the excessive deficit procedure, right,
  • 16:23 - 16:25
    for countries like Spain, for example, or
  • 16:25 - 16:26
    for most European countries who have to
  • 16:26 - 16:27
    undergo this investment.
  • 16:28 - 16:29
    Now, how long would that last for?
  • 16:29 - 16:31
    Is that the way to like build a
  • 16:31 - 16:32
    European defence capability?
  • 16:32 - 16:34
    I'm very sceptical of it, right?
  • 16:34 - 16:36
    The way I would go about it is
  • 16:36 - 16:37
    slightly different.
  • 16:37 - 16:39
    I would think like, okay, so we're in
  • 16:39 - 16:42
    one of those rare moments of crisis in
  • 16:42 - 16:44
    the EU right now, similar to the COVID
  • 16:44 - 16:46
    crisis, where the more ambitious
  • 16:46 - 16:48
    solutions are also the more pragmatic,
  • 16:48 - 16:48
    right?
  • 16:48 - 16:50
    Usually it's the opposite, right?
  • 16:50 - 16:52
    It's like, oh, you know, we're asking for
  • 16:52 - 16:52
    a pie in the sky.
  • 16:52 - 16:54
    So I think you should start with like
  • 16:54 - 16:56
    the most ambitious proposal you can
  • 16:56 - 16:59
    consider and then work with that towards,
  • 16:59 - 17:01
    you know, landing that on like the
  • 17:01 - 17:02
    framework that you can work with.
  • 17:04 - 17:05
    And so what would that look like?
  • 17:05 - 17:07
    I think it would entail acknowledging
  • 17:07 - 17:10
    that yes, there is a security threat,
  • 17:11 - 17:13
    even if the Ukraine situation is solved
  • 17:13 - 17:14
    immediately, right?
  • 17:14 - 17:16
    You need to have the deterrence
  • 17:16 - 17:20
    capability to avoid a scenario like 2014
  • 17:20 - 17:22
    to 2022, like what we were talking about
  • 17:22 - 17:22
    before.
  • 17:23 - 17:24
    But then it should be the EU that
  • 17:24 - 17:26
    provides that, not NATO.
  • 17:26 - 17:27
    You should not rely on the United States.
  • 17:27 - 17:29
    The United States is not an ally in
  • 17:29 - 17:30
    any sense of the word anymore.
  • 17:31 - 17:32
    So you need to do this on your
  • 17:32 - 17:33
    own.
  • 17:33 - 17:36
    And you also need to define security very
  • 17:36 - 17:38
    broadly, I think, for this to work.
  • 17:39 - 17:40
    So yes, a part of it has to
  • 17:40 - 17:41
    do with like defence, right?
  • 17:41 - 17:42
    And what we were just talking about.
  • 17:42 - 17:44
    And this is what usually all the
  • 17:44 - 17:45
    conversation focusses on.
  • 17:45 - 17:46
    And that's part of the deal.
  • 17:47 - 17:49
    But there's other stuff that the EU needs
  • 17:49 - 17:52
    to do to actually establish a security
  • 17:52 - 17:53
    worthy of that name.
  • 17:53 - 17:55
    So at least three other areas besides
  • 17:55 - 17:55
    defence.
  • 17:56 - 17:57
    One would be climate security.
  • 17:58 - 17:59
    You know, you need to become energy
  • 17:59 - 18:01
    independent, not just from Russia and oil
  • 18:01 - 18:03
    and gas, but from the United States or
  • 18:03 - 18:04
    the Gulf states.
  • 18:04 - 18:05
    And that involves being very ambitious
  • 18:05 - 18:07
    with the ongoing green transition.
  • 18:08 - 18:09
    So you need to double down on that,
  • 18:09 - 18:11
    not cut your resources to focus
  • 18:11 - 18:12
    exclusively on defence.
  • 18:13 - 18:14
    If you adopt a broad conception of
  • 18:14 - 18:17
    security, that is also something that you
  • 18:17 - 18:18
    need to take into consideration.
  • 18:18 - 18:19
    You can't just leave it in the back
  • 18:19 - 18:22
    burner and expect things to get better in
  • 18:22 - 18:22
    the future.
  • 18:23 - 18:25
    You also need to think of economic
  • 18:25 - 18:25
    security, right?
  • 18:25 - 18:27
    In terms of having a financial
  • 18:27 - 18:29
    architecture that does not depend on the
  • 18:29 - 18:31
    dollar system or US payment platforms,
  • 18:31 - 18:31
    right?
  • 18:31 - 18:33
    That involves anything from having a more
  • 18:33 - 18:35
    internationalised euro to having a
  • 18:35 - 18:36
    digital euro as a tool for payments,
  • 18:36 - 18:37
    right?
  • 18:37 - 18:39
    Like you can get really down to the
  • 18:39 - 18:40
    weeds of like the policies that you need
  • 18:40 - 18:40
    for this.
  • 18:40 - 18:42
    But there's a big plank that has to
  • 18:42 - 18:45
    do with your economic model, the fiscal
  • 18:45 - 18:47
    rules that are extremely outdated, even
  • 18:47 - 18:48
    after this programme, right?
  • 18:48 - 18:49
    They should be completely overhauled if
  • 18:49 - 18:50
    you really want to meet the challenge
  • 18:50 - 18:51
    that you face right now.
  • 18:52 - 18:54
    Fourth area, and final one, would be sort
  • 18:54 - 18:56
    of security from a social standpoint.
  • 18:56 - 18:58
    If you do all these things and at
  • 18:58 - 18:59
    the same time you have to do austerity
  • 18:59 - 19:00
    because you have to balance a budget,
  • 19:01 - 19:02
    then that sort of defeats the purpose of
  • 19:02 - 19:03
    any of this.
  • 19:03 - 19:04
    Especially keeping in mind that we sort
  • 19:04 - 19:06
    of know by now and there's considerable
  • 19:06 - 19:07
    evidence that doing austerity, doing
  • 19:07 - 19:09
    budgetary cuts, trimming down the welfare
  • 19:09 - 19:11
    state, actually empowers the very friends
  • 19:11 - 19:13
    of Trump and Putin that are already
  • 19:13 - 19:15
    reasonably strong in a lot of European
  • 19:15 - 19:15
    states.
  • 19:15 - 19:17
    So if you want to stop the far
  • 19:17 - 19:19
    right, and if there's anything in the EU
  • 19:19 - 19:20
    that is worth fighting for, it's probably
  • 19:20 - 19:22
    a socioeconomic model that, you know,
  • 19:22 - 19:24
    provides social security in the form of
  • 19:24 - 19:26
    the welfare state, public health care,
  • 19:26 - 19:27
    public education, pensions, you name it.
  • 19:27 - 19:29
    So that has to be like a big
  • 19:29 - 19:29
    part of it.
  • 19:29 - 19:30
    And so you get these four things and
  • 19:30 - 19:31
    then you think, okay, how are we going
  • 19:31 - 19:32
    to pay for them?
  • 19:32 - 19:35
    And then I think, you know, a mixture
  • 19:35 - 19:38
    of having more mutualised European debt,
  • 19:38 - 19:40
    like next generation, and having its own,
  • 19:40 - 19:44
    you know, fiscal capacity in terms of, I
  • 19:44 - 19:45
    don't know, I would consider not just
  • 19:45 - 19:47
    punishing Russian oligarchs, but taxing
  • 19:47 - 19:50
    the activity of American tech oligarchs
  • 19:50 - 19:52
    for the EU to generate its own resources.
  • 19:52 - 19:53
    And there are ways to do that, right?
  • 19:53 - 19:55
    And you can talk about Russian stranded
  • 19:55 - 19:57
    assets and a number of other sources of
  • 19:57 - 19:58
    revenue that you can tax.
  • 19:58 - 20:00
    So you'd have to be much more broad
  • 20:00 - 20:02
    in your conception of security and not
  • 20:02 - 20:04
    just focus on the defence industry and
  • 20:04 - 20:05
    defence spending from a national
  • 20:05 - 20:06
    perspective.
  • 20:06 - 20:08
    Because ultimately, I mean, I hope this
  • 20:08 - 20:09
    doesn't happen.
  • 20:09 - 20:10
    And there's still ongoing discussion.
  • 20:10 - 20:13
    But if this ends up being an excuse
  • 20:13 - 20:15
    for member states to spend more money
  • 20:15 - 20:17
    without clear strategic goals, and that
  • 20:17 - 20:19
    ends up being, well, I don't know, buying
  • 20:19 - 20:21
    American equipment, and increasing a
  • 20:21 - 20:22
    security dependence that is already
  • 20:22 - 20:24
    there, then you've doubled down on a
  • 20:24 - 20:25
    problem, right?
  • 20:26 - 20:27
    So, you know, I think there's some good
  • 20:27 - 20:28
    elements to it.
  • 20:28 - 20:29
    But I think it could be much improved
  • 20:29 - 20:32
    and still needs a broader definition of
  • 20:32 - 20:33
    security and much more fiscal ambition.
  • 20:33 - 20:37
    So basically, are you saying you think it
  • 20:37 - 20:41
    would be preferable for member states to
  • 20:41 - 20:45
    make less of a decision here and for
  • 20:45 - 20:47
    the EU to have a more sort of
  • 20:47 - 20:49
    coordinated plan?
  • 20:49 - 20:53
    And I'm just wondering, do you think the
  • 20:53 - 20:54
    European Union, and I'm not talking
  • 20:54 - 20:56
    Europe, I'm talking the European Union,
  • 20:56 - 20:59
    would ever take that non-aligned
  • 20:59 - 21:01
    perspective?
  • 21:01 - 21:03
    Do you think that's plausible?
  • 21:03 - 21:05
    Don't you feel like maybe European
  • 21:05 - 21:08
    nations themselves would be more likely
  • 21:08 - 21:12
    to, if they were democratic enough to not
  • 21:12 - 21:14
    be sort of that constrained by the
  • 21:14 - 21:17
    European Union, like, don't you feel like
  • 21:17 - 21:19
    they would try to be non-aligned?
  • 21:19 - 21:21
    Obviously, I'm kind of generalising here.
  • 21:21 - 21:23
    But I don't know, I'm just wondering, do
  • 21:23 - 21:25
    you have hopes in the EU?
  • 21:25 - 21:28
    Or do you have hopes in Europe?
  • 21:28 - 21:30
    And yeah, what do you think is more
  • 21:30 - 21:32
    likely like for the EU to actually take
  • 21:32 - 21:35
    a non-aligned stance or for European
  • 21:35 - 21:35
    countries?
  • 21:35 - 21:37
    Because I don't know, I just struggle to
  • 21:37 - 21:39
    believe that the EU would ever do that.
  • 21:39 - 21:41
    So I kind of have the opposite reaction
  • 21:41 - 21:43
    in that I would have more hope in
  • 21:43 - 21:45
    European nations individually kind of
  • 21:45 - 21:48
    taking that sort of stance and kind of
  • 21:48 - 21:51
    making the right investments, or Europe
  • 21:51 - 21:54
    as a sort of region rather than the
  • 21:54 - 21:55
    EU specifically.
  • 21:56 - 21:58
    But let me know your thoughts about this.
  • 21:59 - 22:01
    So I think there's one thing that is
  • 22:01 - 22:03
    like, okay, should the EU pull its
  • 22:03 - 22:04
    capacities together?
  • 22:04 - 22:05
    That's one thing, right?
  • 22:05 - 22:07
    And have like a more federated approach
  • 22:07 - 22:09
    to these threats that it faces now, and
  • 22:09 - 22:11
    these challenges in the form of Russia,
  • 22:11 - 22:12
    of the United States, of, you know,
  • 22:13 - 22:14
    having to develop its own autonomy.
  • 22:15 - 22:16
    And then the other question is like about
  • 22:16 - 22:17
    Europe's alignment, right?
  • 22:17 - 22:19
    These are like, I'm kind of going to
  • 22:19 - 22:20
    try and parse them out because I think
  • 22:20 - 22:21
    they're slightly distinct.
  • 22:21 - 22:22
    So the question, the way this is always
  • 22:22 - 22:24
    posed is this question of, oh, should you
  • 22:24 - 22:26
    have a European army, right?
  • 22:26 - 22:27
    And usually this is sort of like
  • 22:27 - 22:30
    something that doesn't get discussed a
  • 22:30 - 22:32
    lot beyond the theoretical level, right?
  • 22:32 - 22:34
    Because there are like many operational
  • 22:34 - 22:36
    and political hurdles along the way, but
  • 22:36 - 22:38
    mostly it's a question of political will,
  • 22:38 - 22:38
    right?
  • 22:38 - 22:40
    That European states are reticent to
  • 22:40 - 22:41
    share that degree of sovereignty.
  • 22:42 - 22:44
    Now, I just think if you really are
  • 22:44 - 22:46
    serious about having deterrence
  • 22:46 - 22:49
    capability against Russia, which I think
  • 22:49 - 22:50
    is very different from sort of getting
  • 22:50 - 22:52
    involved in warmongering, right?
  • 22:52 - 22:53
    After all, like Russia is the country
  • 22:53 - 22:55
    that has the largest nuclear stockpile in
  • 22:55 - 22:55
    the world.
  • 22:55 - 22:56
    So I think anyone who was actively
  • 22:56 - 22:59
    engaging in pushing them towards a war
  • 22:59 - 23:01
    would be an idiot to do so.
  • 23:01 - 23:02
    But I do think you need to develop
  • 23:02 - 23:03
    deterrent capability.
  • 23:04 - 23:05
    It makes much more sense to do that
  • 23:05 - 23:07
    on an EU level than for each European
  • 23:07 - 23:08
    state on its own.
  • 23:08 - 23:10
    Unless you're willing to sustain, I don't
  • 23:10 - 23:12
    know, five, six percent of the GDP of
  • 23:12 - 23:14
    every European state spent, or in my
  • 23:14 - 23:16
    view, wasted on defence, right?
  • 23:16 - 23:19
    So it's an idea, I mean, whose time
  • 23:19 - 23:21
    has come in the sense that it's the
  • 23:21 - 23:23
    easiest way out of this problem.
  • 23:23 - 23:24
    Now, then the question, of course, is
  • 23:24 - 23:30
    like, what does a more united EU in
  • 23:30 - 23:33
    the realms of foreign policy and defence
  • 23:33 - 23:35
    policy stand for in the world, right?
  • 23:35 - 23:37
    That question of like, oh, can Europe be
  • 23:37 - 23:38
    non-aligned?
  • 23:38 - 23:40
    I would say Europe today is sort of
  • 23:40 - 23:40
    disaligned, right?
  • 23:41 - 23:43
    Because correct me if I'm wrong, but the
  • 23:43 - 23:45
    way you would have posed this question
  • 23:45 - 23:47
    two months ago is that the EU is
  • 23:47 - 23:49
    overly aligned with the United States and
  • 23:49 - 23:50
    just following the United States
  • 23:50 - 23:51
    initiative.
  • 23:51 - 23:52
    Overnight, that has changed very
  • 23:52 - 23:53
    dramatically.
  • 23:54 - 23:57
    And so the EU already de facto finds
  • 23:57 - 23:59
    itself in a place where it's having to
  • 23:59 - 24:02
    come up with its own autonomous posture
  • 24:02 - 24:04
    in regards, for example, to what happened
  • 24:04 - 24:04
    in Ukraine, right?
  • 24:05 - 24:06
    Now, that position is the one it was
  • 24:06 - 24:08
    holding before the United States changed
  • 24:08 - 24:08
    gears.
  • 24:09 - 24:10
    But I think it's an interesting process.
  • 24:10 - 24:12
    Now, I will say about that, that hasn't
  • 24:12 - 24:15
    come to fruition because European leaders
  • 24:15 - 24:16
    suddenly took that decision.
  • 24:16 - 24:19
    It's because Trump snubbed them and then
  • 24:19 - 24:21
    humiliated a few of them and has done
  • 24:21 - 24:24
    everything within his power to make that
  • 24:24 - 24:25
    outcome possible.
  • 24:25 - 24:27
    So I would think the challenge is not
  • 24:27 - 24:29
    for the EU to strike its own path
  • 24:29 - 24:30
    away from Trump now.
  • 24:30 - 24:32
    The question is maintaining this after
  • 24:32 - 24:33
    Trump is gone.
  • 24:33 - 24:35
    And I'm sort of looking too far into
  • 24:35 - 24:35
    the future.
  • 24:35 - 24:37
    But if you think of, you know, what
  • 24:37 - 24:39
    happened during the Biden presidency, or
  • 24:39 - 24:40
    even if you want to go further back
  • 24:40 - 24:42
    in time after the Iraq war, when there
  • 24:42 - 24:44
    was also talk of the need of becoming
  • 24:44 - 24:46
    more detached in foreign policy positions
  • 24:46 - 24:48
    from the United States, what do you see
  • 24:48 - 24:50
    is that when the good times come back,
  • 24:50 - 24:51
    and that usually means when there's a
  • 24:51 - 24:53
    Democrat in the White House, Europeans
  • 24:53 - 24:54
    become complacent.
  • 24:54 - 24:55
    So this is an effort that you really
  • 24:55 - 24:57
    need to sustain in time.
  • 24:57 - 25:00
    Now, finally, and this is the hardest
  • 25:00 - 25:01
    question to which I don't have an answer
  • 25:01 - 25:03
    other than to say that the EU is,
  • 25:03 - 25:05
    in spite of like making progress on all
  • 25:05 - 25:06
    these areas, and I think a lot of
  • 25:06 - 25:08
    this is actually interesting and
  • 25:08 - 25:10
    worthwhile, but it has some huge flaws in
  • 25:10 - 25:12
    regards to how it aligns in the world,
  • 25:13 - 25:13
    right?
  • 25:13 - 25:16
    Just consider the now ongoing genocide in
  • 25:16 - 25:17
    Gaza, right?
  • 25:17 - 25:19
    We learned today that Israel resumed
  • 25:19 - 25:21
    operations and killed between three and
  • 25:21 - 25:23
    400 Palestinians in one night.
  • 25:24 - 25:25
    And the EU has been shamefully muted on
  • 25:25 - 25:27
    this issue, except for a few voices,
  • 25:28 - 25:28
    right?
  • 25:28 - 25:31
    And for the most part, has acquiesced to
  • 25:31 - 25:33
    what is basically a genocide on its
  • 25:33 - 25:33
    doorstep.
  • 25:34 - 25:38
    So I think striking a sort of, you
  • 25:38 - 25:40
    know, assertive position in defence of
  • 25:40 - 25:43
    Ukraine's right to defend itself from
  • 25:43 - 25:46
    annihilation, in the face of an
  • 25:46 - 25:48
    imperialist neighbour, it's all very well
  • 25:48 - 25:48
    and good.
  • 25:49 - 25:50
    Like, I'm all for that position.
  • 25:50 - 25:52
    I just think there should be coherence.
  • 25:52 - 25:54
    It should also be held in Gaza, right?
  • 25:54 - 25:56
    Like, you know, the EU should be much
  • 25:56 - 25:58
    firmer in its condemnation of Israel.
  • 25:58 - 26:00
    So that's one thing where its present
  • 26:00 - 26:03
    disposition, its present alignment is
  • 26:03 - 26:04
    very much lacking and very disappointing.
  • 26:05 - 26:06
    The same is true of migration policy,
  • 26:06 - 26:07
    right?
  • 26:07 - 26:10
    I mean, we like to act scandalised at
  • 26:10 - 26:12
    the policies that the Trump
  • 26:12 - 26:14
    administration applies, but they're not
  • 26:14 - 26:14
    that different.
  • 26:15 - 26:16
    And in fact, many of them are directly
  • 26:16 - 26:17
    inspired in what we do in our own
  • 26:17 - 26:18
    borders.
  • 26:19 - 26:21
    So, you know, I do think the EU
  • 26:21 - 26:23
    is taking several steps to become more
  • 26:23 - 26:24
    autonomous from the US.
  • 26:24 - 26:27
    I am sceptical that the way it is
  • 26:27 - 26:29
    doing so is the best, the most useful,
  • 26:29 - 26:31
    and that it's not, that it doesn't have
  • 26:31 - 26:32
    several aspects of it that can be
  • 26:32 - 26:33
    counterproductive.
  • 26:33 - 26:36
    But I realise that there are some areas
  • 26:36 - 26:37
    where the state of affairs right now is
  • 26:37 - 26:38
    pretty awful.
  • 26:38 - 26:40
    It certainly is.
  • 26:40 - 26:42
    And I want to dive a little deeper
  • 26:42 - 26:44
    into this topic of non-alignment.
  • 26:45 - 26:49
    I think the EU, yes, it's not complacent
  • 26:49 - 26:51
    to the Trump presidency.
  • 26:51 - 26:54
    But I mean, I think it still is
  • 26:54 - 26:58
    to the sort of what they understand as
  • 26:58 - 27:03
    the default US, right, which is Democrats
  • 27:03 - 27:07
    or, you know, never Trump Republicans and
  • 27:07 - 27:10
    a politics of the sort.
  • 27:10 - 27:14
    And meanwhile, at DiEM25, we aim for a
  • 27:14 - 27:16
    non-aligned, which doesn't mean neutral
  • 27:16 - 27:17
    Europe.
  • 27:18 - 27:20
    Do you believe this is currently a
  • 27:20 - 27:21
    possibility?
  • 27:22 - 27:24
    And how do you believe it would impact
  • 27:24 - 27:26
    the potential for more democratic
  • 27:26 - 27:29
    European nations if we move in this
  • 27:29 - 27:30
    direction?
  • 27:30 - 27:32
    Yeah, I mean, I think it's tied to
  • 27:32 - 27:33
    what I was saying before.
  • 27:33 - 27:35
    But so let me reframe it in a
  • 27:35 - 27:36
    more accurate way.
  • 27:36 - 27:39
    I think the EU, again, not by its
  • 27:39 - 27:42
    own merits, but because of the effects of
  • 27:42 - 27:43
    what Trump has done in two months, has
  • 27:43 - 27:46
    become sort of disaligned from the US,
  • 27:46 - 27:46
    right?
  • 27:48 - 27:50
    And I am a bit, yeah, I will
  • 27:50 - 27:53
    say I am hopeful that this is not
  • 27:53 - 27:56
    just a passing sort of fleeting sentiment
  • 27:56 - 27:58
    of like, oh, you know, Trump is horrible.
  • 27:59 - 28:00
    Then we'll go back to business.
  • 28:00 - 28:02
    I want to think that there is a
  • 28:02 - 28:04
    learning process going on, especially in
  • 28:04 - 28:05
    the way that we had, you know, Biden
  • 28:05 - 28:07
    between these two Trump terms.
  • 28:07 - 28:09
    I mean, the way that events have unfolded
  • 28:09 - 28:11
    would mean that Europeans would be, you
  • 28:11 - 28:14
    know, profoundly obtuse not to continue
  • 28:14 - 28:16
    investing in becoming independent from
  • 28:16 - 28:18
    the United States after Trump is gone.
  • 28:18 - 28:21
    And who knows what will happen in four
  • 28:21 - 28:21
    years.
  • 28:22 - 28:25
    So on that regard, I'm, let's say, mildly
  • 28:25 - 28:26
    hopeful, or at least I've been surprised
  • 28:26 - 28:28
    by the degree of result I've seen from
  • 28:28 - 28:29
    key European figures.
  • 28:30 - 28:31
    So I would not have expected to see
  • 28:31 - 28:35
    a centre-right German politician say, my
  • 28:35 - 28:36
    first concern is becoming independent
  • 28:36 - 28:38
    from the United States, right?
  • 28:38 - 28:39
    I have to acknowledge that if I would
  • 28:39 - 28:41
    have been told, will you see this in
  • 28:41 - 28:43
    the next year, a couple months ago, I'd
  • 28:43 - 28:44
    have said, no, absolutely not.
  • 28:44 - 28:46
    You know, I think Europeans will try and
  • 28:46 - 28:48
    paper over their differences with Trump,
  • 28:48 - 28:50
    but fundamentally not change or, you
  • 28:50 - 28:50
    know, within.
  • 28:51 - 28:57
    So in that regard, yeah, but another, but
  • 28:57 - 28:58
    as I was saying before, if you look
  • 28:58 - 28:59
    at other issues, so if you look at
  • 28:59 - 29:01
    the Palestinian question, right, if you
  • 29:01 - 29:04
    look at migration policy, these are areas
  • 29:04 - 29:06
    that where there's no change and where
  • 29:06 - 29:08
    the current alignment or the current, you
  • 29:08 - 29:10
    know, posture to the extent that you has
  • 29:10 - 29:13
    a coherent posture, or the sum of the
  • 29:13 - 29:14
    different member states postures is
  • 29:14 - 29:15
    awful.
  • 29:15 - 29:17
    Now, there are a couple other instances,
  • 29:17 - 29:20
    which are a bit more, I guess, we
  • 29:20 - 29:22
    still need to wait and see what happens.
  • 29:22 - 29:24
    But so, for example, I would say, I'm
  • 29:24 - 29:25
    interested to see what happens within
  • 29:25 - 29:26
    relations with China.
  • 29:26 - 29:29
    I think if you want to become autonomous
  • 29:29 - 29:32
    from the US and, you know, secure from
  • 29:32 - 29:34
    Russia, and at the same time, you take
  • 29:34 - 29:36
    fighting climate change seriously, you
  • 29:36 - 29:39
    cannot afford to follow the US into a
  • 29:39 - 29:41
    confrontation with China into the Indo
  • 29:41 - 29:42
    -Pacific.
  • 29:42 - 29:42
    You just can't.
  • 29:42 - 29:44
    You need to find a better way to
  • 29:44 - 29:45
    engage with China, right?
  • 29:45 - 29:48
    So the EU famously has this plan, or
  • 29:48 - 29:51
    this platform where it views China as a
  • 29:51 - 29:52
    sort of, let me see if I get
  • 29:52 - 29:53
    this correctly, as the ones, it is a
  • 29:53 - 29:56
    partner, it is a competitor, and it is
  • 29:56 - 29:58
    a rival, and different, and depending on
  • 29:58 - 29:59
    what policies you look at.
Title:
Trump, Ukraine and the Myth of a Democratic EU | Jorge Tamames Interview
Description:

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Video Language:
English, British
Duration:
47:55

English, British subtitles

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