Trump, Ukraine and the Myth of a Democratic EU | Jorge Tamames Interview
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Not Synced[Tiare] Hello and welcome
to the channel of DiEM25. -
Not SyncedToday we are joined by Jorge Tamames.
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Not SyncedHe has a PhD from University College
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Not SyncedDublin and currently teaches European
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Not SyncedPolitical Economy at the University
-
Not SyncedCarlos III of Madrid.
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Not SyncedJorge, thank you so much
for joining us today. -
Not SyncedHow are you doing?
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Not Synced[Jorge] My pleasure.
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Not SyncedThanks for having me.
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Not SyncedAll is good here.
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Not SyncedRainy day in Madrid.
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Not SyncedRainy month, actually.
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Not Synced[Tiare] Yeah, we're both
from Madrid, actually, -
Not Syncedso we've had two madrileños in a row.
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Not SyncedI want to start talking about the joint
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Not Syncedpress conference with President Volodymyr
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Not SyncedZelenskyy and President Donald Trump that
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Not Syncedwe recently saw because what we want to
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Not Syncedtouch upon today mainly is the
-
Not Syncedgeopolitical tensions that are currently
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Not Syncedhappening, especially within Europe and
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Not Syncedin relation to Ukraine.
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Not SyncedAnd obviously we need to talk about this
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Not Syncedjoint press conference.
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Not SyncedThis event saw the Ukrainian and American
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Not Syncedleaders confront each other in a blow-up
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Not Syncedthat ushers in a new phase of the
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Not Syncedwar in Ukraine, one under a Trump
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Not Syncedpresidency.
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Not SyncedAnd I was wondering, what do you make
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Not Syncedof the apparent antagonism between the
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Not Syncedtwo leaders?
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Not Synced[Jorge] Well, the first thing
that I'll say is -
Not Syncedthat I had to watch the clip several
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Not Syncedtimes and this is not something that I
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Not Syncedusually do.
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Not SyncedMy background is
in foreign affairs. -
Not SyncedI studied international relations.
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Not SyncedI worked at a foreign policy journal in
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Not Synceda think tank for a while,
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Not Syncedso this is sort of my
bread and butter. -
Not SyncedAnd I had never seen an exchange on
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Not Syncedthat level.
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Not SyncedJust the humiliation of a guest who is
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Not Syncedalso a head of state in the White House
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Not Syncedin front of the press, with the
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Not Syncedpress participating in it.
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Not SyncedI was shocked and I am not usually
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Not Syncedone to be sort of shocked.
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Not SyncedTrump has always generated this sort of
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Not Syncedsometimes a bit prudish reaction
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Not Syncedregarding: oh, he doesn't respect norms.
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Not SyncedHe doesn't respect due process.
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Not SyncedHe's like this vulgar guy.
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Not SyncedAnd I usually don't have much patience
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Not Syncedfor that, but I was surprised.
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Not SyncedI think on a formal level, it was
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Not Syncedjust something very different to watch.
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Not SyncedAnd I think, I guess it goes to
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Not Syncedthe differences between his first
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Not Syncedadministration and the second one.
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Not SyncedThis is the kind of thing
you would have not -
Not Syncedseen in the first
Trump White House -
Not Syncedbecause at the end of the day,
he had to rely on a lot of -
Not Syncedpeople who were not Trump world
-
Not Syncedcharacters like he has
around him now, right? -
Not SyncedThese were more standard
Republican operators. -
Not SyncedRex Tillerson, the guy who first ran his
-
Not Synceddepartment of state, was a guy who came
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Not Syncedfrom the big oil industry.
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Not SyncedSo the more standard profiles you
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Not Syncedwould see in a normal
Republican administration. -
Not SyncedSo in a way, I had this feeling
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Not Syncedthat this was new ground.
-
Not SyncedThis entire concern
with Trump in the way -
Not Syncedthat he doesn't respect the
way things are usually done -
Not Syncedand so forth,
I found myself -
Not Syncedtaking it a bit more seriously in
-
Not Syncedthe last two months
than I did in the past. -
Not SyncedNow, the question,
what do I think -
Not Syncedit represented in terms
of the substance? -
Not SyncedI'm not sure to what extent
this style is going to work -
Not Syncedfor this administration
or not. -
Not SyncedAnd what I mean by that is
-
Not SyncedI think it was very counterproductive
-
Not Syncedin terms of, Trump has been
extraordinarily successful in -
Not Syncedgalvanising the EU to sort of become
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Not Syncedindependent or become more autonomous
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Not Syncedfrom the U.S. with events
like this one -
Not Syncedor like J.D. Vance's visit in
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Not Syncedthe Munich Security Conference,
right. -
Not SyncedAnd this is something that was not on
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Not Syncedthe menu two months ago.
-
Not SyncedSo the future German Chancellor Merz,
-
Not Syncedwhen he was running
for office, -
Not Syncedhis whole deal was:
Oh no, we're going to get -
Not Syncedalong pretty well with Trump.
-
Not SyncedWe'll be able to reach some deals.
-
Not SyncedHe's not our favourite guy,
but we can -
Not Syncedactually live with this guy.
-
Not SyncedWe'll be pragmatic.
-
Not SyncedAnd on election night, he said:
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Not SyncedMy first concern is to become
independent from the US. -
Not SyncedSo I think this has been
-
Not Syncedthe first effect of this
change in forms -
Not Syncedrather than substance,
because in terms -
Not Syncedof the substance, this is
the stuff he ran on. -
Not SyncedWell, the UK stuff,
not other stuff that -
Not Syncedhe's actually pushing
and we can talk about it. -
Not SyncedBut yeah, that's my reading of
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Not Syncedthe whole scene.
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Not SyncedAt first I was shocked.
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Not SyncedAnd then looking at the reaction
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Not SyncedI think, maybe they're
not reading the room correctly. -
Not SyncedI don't mean the room of the
meeting in which it took place, -
Not Syncedbut the broader room of
the way Europeans are -
Not Syncedgoing to react,
public opinion in Ukraine -
Not Syncedmight shift or not.
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Not SyncedUltimately whether Russia
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Not Syncedwill actually pick up on the deal
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Not Syncedthat is being offered to
them at this point. -
Not Synced[Tiare] Right, just to check your
thoughts on another -
Not Syncedimportant point related to this newly
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Not SyncedTrump administration era
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Not Syncedthe United States and Ukraine
plan to sign a minerals deal, -
Not Syncedwhich has seen much controversy.
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Not SyncedAccording to the deal, Ukraine will
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Not Syncedcontribute 50% of future proceeds
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Not Syncedfrom state owned mineral resources,
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Not Syncedoil and gas to an investment fund,
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Not Syncedwhich will then invest
to promote the safety, -
Not Syncedsecurity and prosperity of Ukraine.
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Not SyncedThis deal appears to imply that private
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Not Syncedcompanies will need
to get involved in -
Not Syncedthe mining process within the vague
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Not Syncedinformation that we have been receiving
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Not Syncedabout this deal.
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Not SyncedDo you believe, given what we know
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Not Synceddo you believe it can
be perceived as simply -
Not Syncedlaying bare the
American interest in -
Not Syncedexploiting Ukrainian
natural resources -
Not Syncedfor the benefit of the
American capitalist class? -
Not SyncedIs there anything in this for
working class Americans? -
Not Synced[Jorge] OK, so let's start
with the last part. -
Not SyncedIs there something in this for working
-
Not Syncedclass Americans?
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Not SyncedI'd say no.
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Not SyncedOn the face of it, there
doesn't seem to be much. -
Not SyncedI can have some sympathy
for the people -
Not Syncedwho voted for the first
Trump term, right, -
Not Syncedwith a working class background,
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Not Syncedexpecting to get sort of a better deal
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Not Syncedthan what was being offered
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Not Syncedby Hillary Clinton in 2017.
-
Not SyncedBut at this point,
I think with Trump, -
Not Syncedyou sort of know what you're
getting to an extent. -
Not SyncedI'll qualify that a bit further on.
-
Not SyncedBut in terms of what is the
-
Not SyncedAmerican working class
getting out of this deal -
Not SyncedI don't know if this deal
is viable at all. -
Not SyncedSo sometimes it's
hard to take these -
Not Syncedannouncements on their face.
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Not SyncedAnd usually they create outrage
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Not Syncedof course, because it
looks like a shakeup -
Not Syncedand it seems to be a shakeup in
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Not Syncedexchange for some very
dubious security guarantees. -
Not SyncedNow, I'm not an expert in rare earth
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Not Syncedor their processing
or critical minerals. -
Not SyncedSo take this with a grain of salt,
-
Not Syncedpun unintended.
-
Not SyncedBut from what I've read,
it seems like -
Not Synceda lot of these rare earths
-
Not Syncedcome from old maps
from back in the -
Not SyncedSoviet Union in the
70s and 80s. -
Not SyncedIt's not sure whether
they can be mined -
Not Syncedor they're economically
viable as of today. -
Not SyncedA lot of the places that have to
-
Not Syncedbe mined are where the fighting
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Not Syncedis taking place.
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Not SyncedSo none of that was
a problem because -
Not Syncedyou even managed
to get a peace deal. -
Not SyncedSo then presumably
you'd get American -
Not Syncedcompanies that go there and
invest in the mining process, right? -
Not SyncedMining is an economic sector that
-
Not Syncedrequires a lot of
capital investment, -
Not Syncedlong time horizons
before you can get -
Not Syncedcredit on your investment
-
Not Syncedand a very stable, judicial
and regulatory framework. -
Not SyncedThese are not things
you're going to -
Not Syncedbe getting right now
in the Donbass region -
Not Syncedof Ukraine or even in Ukraine
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Not Syncedor the full Russian occupied areas.
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Not SyncedSo I don't see how this deal amounts
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Not Syncedto much other than
something that -
Not SyncedTrump can announce
and feel happy about. -
Not SyncedI think here the
experience of his -
Not Syncedfirst term in office
is instructive. -
Not SyncedWe saw a lot of this during
the first Trump term. -
Not SyncedSo that's my general
read on the deal. -
Not SyncedSo then it seems like it
doesn't make much sense. -
Not SyncedBut one of the
interpretations I've heard -
Not Syncedwas that rather than coming
-
Not Syncedfrom the White House,
it was something -
Not Syncedthat the Ukrainians and Zelensky
pitched to Donald Trump. -
Not SyncedAgain, if that is the case,
-
Not Syncedthat seems to me a
sort of genius move -
Not Syncedto present him with
a deal that he likes -
Not Syncedand that is going to create some
shock and some support, -
Not Syncedbut there's very little
workable substance behind it. -
Not SyncedBut ultimately,
we'll have to wait and see. -
Not SyncedBut I don't think this deal as
of now leading anywhere. -
Not Synced[Tiare] Yeah,
I don't know. -
Not SyncedI just personally felt like this was
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Not Syncedjust something, it's like:
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Not SyncedWell, we should have known
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Not Syncedif the U.S. is after anything or the EU.
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Not SyncedNow we're going to get to that.
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Not SyncedBut if after anything would end up
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Not Syncedbe exploiting natural resources.
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Not SyncedI think if we look at the history of
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Not Syncedthe wars, especially that the U.S
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Not Syncedhas enjoyed joining and pushing for.
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Not SyncedI mean, I don't know.
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Not SyncedI just I was quite
shocked that anyone -
Not Syncedwould be shocked at the U.S.
-
Not Syncedpursuing that kind of interest.
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Not Synced[Jorge] I was also
shocked because this -
Not Syncedwas nowhere on the cards
during the campaign. right? -
Not Synced[Tiare] Yeah.
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Not Synced[Jorge] Unless I'm much mistaken.
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Not SyncedI don't remember hearing about this at
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Not Syncedall throughout the past year.
-
Not SyncedMaybe I'm wrong, but I'm getting the
sense and this is something -
Not SyncedI think is worth keeping in mind
-
Not Syncedbecause the pace
of announcements from -
Not Syncedthis administration in
the first month and a half -
Not Syncedhas been so overwhelming.
-
Not SyncedSometimes it's just
almost unavoidable -
Not Syncedthat you feel sort of demoralised
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Not Syncedand overwhelmed and you don't even
have a grip on what is happening. -
Not SyncedI think at points like that,
it's worth keeping in mind -
Not Syncedthese guys won an election
for a variety of reasons -
Not SyncedBut an important one
was that there was -
Not Synceda critical mass of
Americans who thought -
Not Syncedthat prices were too high
and eggs were too expensive. -
Not SyncedSo, you can say these were
like 'economic anxiety' voters. -
Not Syncedwho voted because they
-
Not Syncedthought they were getting
a lousy deal with Biden. -
Not SyncedAnd the Trump campaign did make a lot
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Not Syncedof emphasis on prices being
too high throughout the campaign. -
Not SyncedSo those people voted
with that in their mind. -
Not SyncedAnd what they got is a minerals deal
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Not Syncedinvading the Panama Canal.
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Not SyncedCanada should be the 51st state
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Not Syncedand we should also own
Greenland. -
Not SyncedI don't see how that is working very
-
Not Syncedwell for your working class
-
Not Syncedeconomic anxiety Trump voter
in the long term. -
Not SyncedI don't think it's working for
the stock market either. -
Not SyncedYour traditional Republican
-
Not Syncedwho's just hoping
to get a good return -
Not Syncedon his investments from
the Trump presidency -
Not Syncedlike happened last time
-
Not Syncedwhen the stock market
was booming. -
Not SyncedSo I don't want to
be too mechanistic and say: -
Not SyncedOh, the economy doesn't work
so he'll run into trouble. -
Not SyncedBut it's worth keeping in
mind that we're getting -
Not Syncedannouncements of
different deals every day, -
Not Syncedbut he's not delivering on the
-
Not Syncedbasic deal that won
the election for him. -
Not SyncedHonestly, like I don't think a Trump
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Not Syncedpresidency works for anyone,
obviously -
Not Syncednot the working class,
but also the vast -
Not Syncedparts of the capitalist class.
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Not SyncedI don't think or especially the
-
Not Syncedprofessional managerial class.
-
Not SyncedI don't think they're
excited to have him. -
Not SyncedHence Trump derangement
syndrome. -
Not SyncedLike I believe that is
absolutely a thing. -
Not SyncedI wanted to ask you at the beginning
-
Not Syncedof this month of March,
Trump halted -
Not Syncedmilitary aid to Ukraine,
a cut that then -
Not Syncedexpanded to include
all military intelligence -
Not Syncedwhile acknowledging Russia's
-
Not Syncedguilt in illegally invading
a sovereign country.. -
Not SyncedWe will probably agree that finding
-
Not Synceda diplomatic solution that seeks to
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Not Syncedde-escalate the military
conflict should be prioritised. -
Not SyncedDo you believe these steps taken by
-
Not SyncedPresident Trump bear any
positive aspects at all -
Not Syncedor are they counterproductive
to the sense? -
Not SyncedWell, I'm going to give you my easy
-
Not Syncedanswer, sort of a cop out.
-
Not SyncedBut I do think it's too soon to tell
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Not Syncedtell, because we don't know if this deal
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Not Syncedat this stage, this compromise
has buy in from the Russians. -
Not SyncedWhat we know is that the Ukrainian side
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Not Syncedhas sort of been strong armed
to the negotiating table. -
Not SyncedNow, I think if you look at this war
-
Not Syncednone of the sides were going to
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Not Syncedget what they wanted originally.
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Not SyncedSo Russia wanted to topple the entirety
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Not Syncedof the Ukrainian government,
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Not Syncedto march to Kiev, to install
a puppet regime, -
Not Syncedand to annex the four regions
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Not Syncedthat it proclaimed
are part of new Russia. -
Not SyncedThis is a term they used
to refer to them. -
Not SyncedAnd then on the Ukrainian
side, at one point -
Not Syncedthere was even talk of launching
-
Not Syncedan offensive and being able to retake Crimea.
-
Not SyncedThis was really always,
always a far-fetched idea. -
Not SyncedSo neither side got what it
originally wanted from this war. -
Not Synced
-
Not SyncedAnd so sooner or later,
-
Not Syncedyou're going to have
a negotiation, right? -
Not SyncedNow, the question is,
what does that -
Not Syncednegotiation actually look like?
-
Not SyncedIf you had a peace settlement now,
-
Not Syncedwhere Ukraine was forced to
make a lot of concessions -
Not Syncedand really, the underlying
-
Not Syncedissue was never resolved
-
Not Syncedand there's hostility
between Ukraine and Russia, -
Not Syncedyou'd basically have a rerun of the
-
Not SyncedMinsk 1 and 2 accords after 2014, right?
-
Not SyncedSo I think you could envision a scenario
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Not Syncedin which you say:
Oh, well, you know, -
Not Syncedyou reach some sort
of deal that at this point, -
Not Syncedt,it seems like will please the
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Not SyncedRussian side much more so than the
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Not SyncedUkrainian one.
-
Not SyncedAlthough it is worth keeping in mind two
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Not Syncedthings, one that like, you know, a couple
-
Not Syncedmonths ago, if you looked at polling,
-
Not Syncedpublic opinion polling in Ukraine, there
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Not Syncedwas a plurality or a slim majority of
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Not Syncedpeople who said, yeah, we want a deal,
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Not Syncedwe hope we can get on with Trump.
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Not SyncedThat has changed slightly, I think,
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Not Syncedbecause of the systematic humiliations
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Not Syncedthat Trump has visited upon, you know,
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Not SyncedUkraine's leadership and Ukrainians in
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Not Syncedgeneral.
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Not SyncedAnd I think now that their resolve is
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Not Syncedsort of hardening.
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Not SyncedSo again, that's another example of this
-
Not Syncedadministration being very
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Not Syncedcounterproductive.
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Not SyncedBut if you assume that there's like, you
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Not Syncedknow, the space for making a deal, fine.
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Not SyncedI think, you know, the question is, what
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Not Syncedhappens the day after that?
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Not SyncedIf we have the precedent of 2014 leading
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Not Syncedto 2022, then how do you avoid having
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Not Synceda deal reached today leading to another
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Not Syncedconflict five years down the line or
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Not Syncedseven years down the line?
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Not SyncedRight.
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Not SyncedSo I think that's the big question that
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Not Syncedwe really should be thinking about what's
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Not Syncedgoing to happen after that deal.
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Not SyncedRight.
-
Not SyncedAnd, you know, I do want to ask
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Not Syncedyou about what you think would be the
-
Not Syncedbest case scenario, the best solution, if
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Not Syncedyou will.
-
Not SyncedBut first, I want to also discuss the
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Not SyncedEuropean side of this.
-
Not SyncedSo this month has also seen Ursula von
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Not Syncedder Leyen unveil a plan to rearm Europe,
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Not Syncedannouncing we are in an era of
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Not Syncedrearmament.
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Not SyncedThis includes defence investment loans to
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Not Syncedmember states, use of the EU budget to
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Not Synceddirect more funds towards defence related
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Not Syncedinvestments and deploying private
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Not Syncedcapital.
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Not SyncedHow do you regard this initiative?
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Not SyncedUm, okay, I'll say a couple of things
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Not Syncedabout it that I think are good, because
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Not Syncedthen I have several misgivings that I
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Not Syncedwant to explore it at night.
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Not SyncedI think to some extent, it is better
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Not Syncedthan the alternative of what Trump was
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Not Syncedproposing, right, which was that each
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Not SyncedEuropean state raise defence spending to
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Not Synced5% of GDP.
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Not SyncedAnd it's good in that it takes the
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Not SyncedEU as the political subject that needs to
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Not Syncedmake these decisions.
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Not SyncedSo it's not NATO, which at this point
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Not Syncedis, I think, you know, becoming more and
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Not Syncedmore dysfunctional with each passing day,
-
Not Syncedright?
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Not SyncedSo it's the EU that needs to take
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Not Syncedits own defence seriously and become
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Not Syncedautonomous at a time when it's being
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Not Syncedthreatened by both Trump and Putin,
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Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedSo that's what I think is good about
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Not Syncedthe deal.
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Not SyncedAnd the fact that is like, you know,
-
Not Syncedthe approach is sort of ambition when you
-
Not Syncedlook at, well, not exactly the scale of
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Not Syncedbillions that is mobilised, because here
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Not Syncedthere's always a bit of creative
-
Not Syncedaccounting that we're used to see from
-
Not SyncedBrussels, right?
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Not SyncedSo I think if you compare it to
-
Not Syncednext generation EU, it's lacking in that
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Not Syncedrespect.
-
Not SyncedBut when you when you take into
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Not Syncedconsideration the fact that it's
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Not Syncedhappening at the same time as Germany,
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Not Syncedfor example, reforms its debt rate,
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Not Syncedright, the constitutional amendment, and,
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Not Syncedyou know, makes it more flexible, that
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Not Syncedjust happened today, then you get a sense
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Not Syncedthat there's sort of ambition to match
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Not Syncedwhat otherwise would be just like lofty
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Not Synceddeclarations.
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Not SyncedSo what I think is more problematic about
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Not Syncedit is that it basically thinks about
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Not SyncedEuropean defence.
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Not SyncedAnd what they do is like you start
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Not Syncedwith what you have, and you work towards
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Not Syncedthe number, right?
-
Not SyncedThis is the way that all these
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Not Synceddiscussions unfold.
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Not SyncedSo what do you have is like, European
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Not Synceddefence, when you look at overall
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Not Syncedspending numbers, it's not actually a
-
Not Syncedsmall number, you know, we're used to
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Not Syncedthinking that Europe doesn't spend, that
-
Not Syncedthe EU doesn't spend enough on defence.
-
Not SyncedAnd when you look at the aggregate
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Not Syncednumbers, depending on the metrics you
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Not Synceduse, but we do spend several times more
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Not Syncedthan Russia does.
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Not SyncedAnd if you also take the UK into
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Not Syncedconsideration, right, sort of these like,
-
Not Syncedlike minded allies, then you have almost
-
Not Syncedtwice the defence budget of China.
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Not SyncedSo that's not an insignificant number by
-
Not Syncedany means.
-
Not SyncedThe problem is, and you know, this is
-
Not Syncedsort of well known by now that it's
-
Not Syncedextraordinarily inefficient, because it's
-
Not Syncedfragmented and sort of 27 different
-
Not Syncedarmies.
-
Not SyncedAnd so you don't generate economies of
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Not Syncedscale, you don't generate the sort of
-
Not Syncedinvestment you would need to have a
-
Not Syncedcompetitive defence industry that spans
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Not Syncedthe entire union and so forth.
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Not SyncedSo the problem that I see is what
-
Not Syncedthis programme does is mainly it focusses on
-
Not Syncednational defence budgets and says, yeah,
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Not Syncedyou can raise them, we expect to get
-
Not Synced650, I think it's 600, 650 billion euros
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Not Syncedout of that.
-
Not SyncedAnd we will loosen the fiscal rules so
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Not Syncedthat this doesn't immediately fall into
-
Not Syncedthe excessive deficit procedure, right,
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Not Syncedfor countries like Spain, for example, or
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Not Syncedfor most European countries who have to
-
Not Syncedundergo this investment.
-
Not SyncedNow, how long would that last for?
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Not SyncedIs that the way to like build a
-
Not SyncedEuropean defence capability?
-
Not SyncedI'm very sceptical of it, right?
-
Not SyncedThe way I would go about it is
-
Not Syncedslightly different.
-
Not SyncedI would think like, okay, so we're in
-
Not Syncedone of those rare moments of crisis in
-
Not Syncedthe EU right now, similar to the COVID
-
Not Syncedcrisis, where the more ambitious
-
Not Syncedsolutions are also the more pragmatic,
-
Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedUsually it's the opposite, right?
-
Not SyncedIt's like, oh, you know, we're asking for
-
Not Synceda pie in the sky.
-
Not SyncedSo I think you should start with like
-
Not Syncedthe most ambitious proposal you can
-
Not Syncedconsider and then work with that towards,
-
Not Syncedyou know, landing that on like the
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Not Syncedframework that you can work with.
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Not SyncedAnd so what would that look like?
-
Not SyncedI think it would entail acknowledging
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Not Syncedthat yes, there is a security threat,
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Not Syncedeven if the Ukraine situation is solved
-
Not Syncedimmediately, right?
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Not SyncedYou need to have the deterrence
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Not Syncedcapability to avoid a scenario like 2014
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Not Syncedto 2022, like what we were talking about
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Not Syncedbefore.
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Not SyncedBut then it should be the EU that
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Not Syncedprovides that, not NATO.
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Not SyncedYou should not rely on the United States.
-
Not SyncedThe United States is not an ally in
-
Not Syncedany sense of the word anymore.
-
Not SyncedSo you need to do this on your
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Not Syncedown.
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Not SyncedAnd you also need to define security very
-
Not Syncedbroadly, I think, for this to work.
-
Not SyncedSo yes, a part of it has to
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Not Synceddo with like defence, right?
-
Not SyncedAnd what we were just talking about.
-
Not SyncedAnd this is what usually all the
-
Not Syncedconversation focusses on.
-
Not SyncedAnd that's part of the deal.
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Not SyncedBut there's other stuff that the EU needs
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Not Syncedto do to actually establish a security
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Not Syncedworthy of that name.
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Not SyncedSo at least three other areas besides
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Not Synceddefence.
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Not SyncedOne would be climate security.
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Not SyncedYou know, you need to become energy
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Not Syncedindependent, not just from Russia and oil
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Not Syncedand gas, but from the United States or
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Not Syncedthe Gulf states.
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Not SyncedAnd that involves being very ambitious
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Not Syncedwith the ongoing green transition.
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Not SyncedSo you need to double down on that,
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Not Syncednot cut your resources to focus
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Not Syncedexclusively on defence.
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Not SyncedIf you adopt a broad conception of
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Not Syncedsecurity, that is also something that you
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Not Syncedneed to take into consideration.
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Not SyncedYou can't just leave it in the back
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Not Syncedburner and expect things to get better in
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Not Syncedthe future.
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Not SyncedYou also need to think of economic
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Not Syncedsecurity, right?
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Not SyncedIn terms of having a financial
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Not Syncedarchitecture that does not depend on the
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Not Synceddollar system or US payment platforms,
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Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedThat involves anything from having a more
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Not Syncedinternationalised euro to having a
-
Not Synceddigital euro as a tool for payments,
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Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedLike you can get really down to the
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Not Syncedweeds of like the policies that you need
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Not Syncedfor this.
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Not SyncedBut there's a big plank that has to
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Not Synceddo with your economic model, the fiscal
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Not Syncedrules that are extremely outdated, even
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Not Syncedafter this programme, right?
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Not SyncedThey should be completely overhauled if
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Not Syncedyou really want to meet the challenge
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Not Syncedthat you face right now.
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Not SyncedFourth area, and final one, would be sort
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Not Syncedof security from a social standpoint.
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Not SyncedIf you do all these things and at
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Not Syncedthe same time you have to do austerity
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Not Syncedbecause you have to balance a budget,
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Not Syncedthen that sort of defeats the purpose of
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Not Syncedany of this.
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Not SyncedEspecially keeping in mind that we sort
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Not Syncedof know by now and there's considerable
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Not Syncedevidence that doing austerity, doing
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Not Syncedbudgetary cuts, trimming down the welfare
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Not Syncedstate, actually empowers the very friends
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Not Syncedof Trump and Putin that are already
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Not Syncedreasonably strong in a lot of European
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Not Syncedstates.
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Not SyncedSo if you want to stop the far
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Not Syncedright, and if there's anything in the EU
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Not Syncedthat is worth fighting for, it's probably
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Not Synceda socioeconomic model that, you know,
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Not Syncedprovides social security in the form of
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Not Syncedthe welfare state, public health care,
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Not Syncedpublic education, pensions, you name it.
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Not SyncedSo that has to be like a big
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Not Syncedpart of it.
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Not SyncedAnd so you get these four things and
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Not Syncedthen you think, okay, how are we going
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Not Syncedto pay for them?
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Not SyncedAnd then I think, you know, a mixture
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Not Syncedof having more mutualised European debt,
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Not Syncedlike next generation, and having its own,
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Not Syncedyou know, fiscal capacity in terms of, I
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Not Synceddon't know, I would consider not just
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Not Syncedpunishing Russian oligarchs, but taxing
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Not Syncedthe activity of American tech oligarchs
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Not Syncedfor the EU to generate its own resources.
-
Not SyncedAnd there are ways to do that, right?
-
Not SyncedAnd you can talk about Russian stranded
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Not Syncedassets and a number of other sources of
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Not Syncedrevenue that you can tax.
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Not SyncedSo you'd have to be much more broad
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Not Syncedin your conception of security and not
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Not Syncedjust focus on the defence industry and
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Not Synceddefence spending from a national
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Not Syncedperspective.
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Not SyncedBecause ultimately, I mean, I hope this
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Not Synceddoesn't happen.
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Not SyncedAnd there's still ongoing discussion.
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Not SyncedBut if this ends up being an excuse
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Not Syncedfor member states to spend more money
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Not Syncedwithout clear strategic goals, and that
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Not Syncedends up being, well, I don't know, buying
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Not SyncedAmerican equipment, and increasing a
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Not Syncedsecurity dependence that is already
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Not Syncedthere, then you've doubled down on a
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Not Syncedproblem, right?
-
Not SyncedSo, you know, I think there's some good
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Not Syncedelements to it.
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Not SyncedBut I think it could be much improved
-
Not Syncedand still needs a broader definition of
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Not Syncedsecurity and much more fiscal ambition.
-
Not SyncedSo basically, are you saying you think it
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Not Syncedwould be preferable for member states to
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Not Syncedmake less of a decision here and for
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Not Syncedthe EU to have a more sort of
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Not Syncedcoordinated plan?
-
Not SyncedAnd I'm just wondering, do you think the
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Not SyncedEuropean Union, and I'm not talking
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Not SyncedEurope, I'm talking the European Union,
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Not Syncedwould ever take that non-aligned
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Not Syncedperspective?
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Not SyncedDo you think that's plausible?
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Not SyncedDon't you feel like maybe European
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Not Syncednations themselves would be more likely
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Not Syncedto, if they were democratic enough to not
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Not Syncedbe sort of that constrained by the
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Not SyncedEuropean Union, like, don't you feel like
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Not Syncedthey would try to be non-aligned?
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Not SyncedObviously, I'm kind of generalising here.
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Not SyncedBut I don't know, I'm just wondering, do
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Not Syncedyou have hopes in the EU?
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Not SyncedOr do you have hopes in Europe?
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Not SyncedAnd yeah, what do you think is more
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Not Syncedlikely like for the EU to actually take
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Not Synceda non-aligned stance or for European
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Not Syncedcountries?
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Not SyncedBecause I don't know, I just struggle to
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Not Syncedbelieve that the EU would ever do that.
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Not SyncedSo I kind of have the opposite reaction
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Not Syncedin that I would have more hope in
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Not SyncedEuropean nations individually kind of
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Not Syncedtaking that sort of stance and kind of
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Not Syncedmaking the right investments, or Europe
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Not Syncedas a sort of region rather than the
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Not SyncedEU specifically.
-
Not SyncedBut let me know your thoughts about this.
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Not SyncedSo I think there's one thing that is
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Not Syncedlike, okay, should the EU pull its
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Not Syncedcapacities together?
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Not SyncedThat's one thing, right?
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Not SyncedAnd have like a more federated approach
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Not Syncedto these threats that it faces now, and
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Not Syncedthese challenges in the form of Russia,
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Not Syncedof the United States, of, you know,
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Not Syncedhaving to develop its own autonomy.
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Not SyncedAnd then the other question is like about
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Not SyncedEurope's alignment, right?
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Not SyncedThese are like, I'm kind of going to
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Not Syncedtry and parse them out because I think
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Not Syncedthey're slightly distinct.
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Not SyncedSo the question, the way this is always
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Not Syncedposed is this question of, oh, should you
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Not Syncedhave a European army, right?
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Not SyncedAnd usually this is sort of like
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Not Syncedsomething that doesn't get discussed a
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Not Syncedlot beyond the theoretical level, right?
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Not SyncedBecause there are like many operational
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Not Syncedand political hurdles along the way, but
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Not Syncedmostly it's a question of political will,
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Not Syncedright?
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Not SyncedThat European states are reticent to
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Not Syncedshare that degree of sovereignty.
-
Not SyncedNow, I just think if you really are
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Not Syncedserious about having deterrence
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Not Syncedcapability against Russia, which I think
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Not Syncedis very different from sort of getting
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Not Syncedinvolved in warmongering, right?
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Not SyncedAfter all, like Russia is the country
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Not Syncedthat has the largest nuclear stockpile in
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Not Syncedthe world.
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Not SyncedSo I think anyone who was actively
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Not Syncedengaging in pushing them towards a war
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Not Syncedwould be an idiot to do so.
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Not SyncedBut I do think you need to develop
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Not Synceddeterrent capability.
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Not SyncedIt makes much more sense to do that
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Not Syncedon an EU level than for each European
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Not Syncedstate on its own.
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Not SyncedUnless you're willing to sustain, I don't
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Not Syncedknow, five, six percent of the GDP of
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Not Syncedevery European state spent, or in my
-
Not Syncedview, wasted on defence, right?
-
Not SyncedSo it's an idea, I mean, whose time
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Not Syncedhas come in the sense that it's the
-
Not Syncedeasiest way out of this problem.
-
Not SyncedNow, then the question, of course, is
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Not Syncedlike, what does a more united EU in
-
Not Syncedthe realms of foreign policy and defence
-
Not Syncedpolicy stand for in the world, right?
-
Not SyncedThat question of like, oh, can Europe be
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Not Syncednon-aligned?
-
Not SyncedI would say Europe today is sort of
-
Not Synceddisaligned, right?
-
Not SyncedBecause correct me if I'm wrong, but the
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Not Syncedway you would have posed this question
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Not Syncedtwo months ago is that the EU is
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Not Syncedoverly aligned with the United States and
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Not Syncedjust following the United States
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Not Syncedinitiative.
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Not SyncedOvernight, that has changed very
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Not Synceddramatically.
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Not SyncedAnd so the EU already de facto finds
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Not Synceditself in a place where it's having to
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Not Syncedcome up with its own autonomous posture
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Not Syncedin regards, for example, to what happened
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Not Syncedin Ukraine, right?
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Not SyncedNow, that position is the one it was
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Not Syncedholding before the United States changed
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Not Syncedgears.
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Not SyncedBut I think it's an interesting process.
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Not SyncedNow, I will say about that, that hasn't
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Not Syncedcome to fruition because European leaders
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Not Syncedsuddenly took that decision.
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Not SyncedIt's because Trump snubbed them and then
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Not Syncedhumiliated a few of them and has done
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Not Syncedeverything within his power to make that
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Not Syncedoutcome possible.
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Not SyncedSo I would think the challenge is not
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Not Syncedfor the EU to strike its own path
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Not Syncedaway from Trump now.
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Not SyncedThe question is maintaining this after
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Not SyncedTrump is gone.
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Not SyncedAnd I'm sort of looking too far into
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Not Syncedthe future.
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Not SyncedBut if you think of, you know, what
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Not Syncedhappened during the Biden presidency, or
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Not Syncedeven if you want to go further back
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Not Syncedin time after the Iraq war, when there
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Not Syncedwas also talk of the need of becoming
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Not Syncedmore detached in foreign policy positions
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Not Syncedfrom the United States, what do you see
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Not Syncedis that when the good times come back,
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Not Syncedand that usually means when there's a
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Not SyncedDemocrat in the White House, Europeans
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Not Syncedbecome complacent.
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Not SyncedSo this is an effort that you really
-
Not Syncedneed to sustain in time.
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Not SyncedNow, finally, and this is the hardest
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Not Syncedquestion to which I don't have an answer
-
Not Syncedother than to say that the EU is,
-
Not Syncedin spite of like making progress on all
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Not Syncedthese areas, and I think a lot of
-
Not Syncedthis is actually interesting and
-
Not Syncedworthwhile, but it has some huge flaws in
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Not Syncedregards to how it aligns in the world,
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Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedJust consider the now ongoing genocide in
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Not SyncedGaza, right?
-
Not SyncedWe learned today that Israel resumed
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Not Syncedoperations and killed between three and
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Not Synced400 Palestinians in one night.
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Not SyncedAnd the EU has been shamefully muted on
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Not Syncedthis issue, except for a few voices,
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Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedAnd for the most part, has acquiesced to
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Not Syncedwhat is basically a genocide on its
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Not Synceddoorstep.
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Not SyncedSo I think striking a sort of, you
-
Not Syncedknow, assertive position in defence of
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Not SyncedUkraine's right to defend itself from
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Not Syncedannihilation, in the face of an
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Not Syncedimperialist neighbour, it's all very well
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Not Syncedand good.
-
Not SyncedLike, I'm all for that position.
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Not SyncedI just think there should be coherence.
-
Not SyncedIt should also be held in Gaza, right?
-
Not SyncedLike, you know, the EU should be much
-
Not Syncedfirmer in its condemnation of Israel.
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Not SyncedSo that's one thing where its present
-
Not Synceddisposition, its present alignment is
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Not Syncedvery much lacking and very disappointing.
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Not SyncedThe same is true of migration policy,
-
Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedI mean, we like to act scandalised at
-
Not Syncedthe policies that the Trump
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Not Syncedadministration applies, but they're not
-
Not Syncedthat different.
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Not SyncedAnd in fact, many of them are directly
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Not Syncedinspired in what we do in our own
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Not Syncedborders.
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Not SyncedSo, you know, I do think the EU
-
Not Syncedis taking several steps to become more
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Not Syncedautonomous from the US.
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Not SyncedI am sceptical that the way it is
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Not Synceddoing so is the best, the most useful,
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Not Syncedand that it's not, that it doesn't have
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Not Syncedseveral aspects of it that can be
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Not Syncedcounterproductive.
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Not SyncedBut I realise that there are some areas
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Not Syncedwhere the state of affairs right now is
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Not Syncedpretty awful.
-
Not SyncedIt certainly is.
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Not SyncedAnd I want to dive a little deeper
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Not Syncedinto this topic of non-alignment.
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Not SyncedI think the EU, yes, it's not complacent
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Not Syncedto the Trump presidency.
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Not SyncedBut I mean, I think it still is
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Not Syncedto the sort of what they understand as
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Not Syncedthe default US, right, which is Democrats
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Not Syncedor, you know, never Trump Republicans and
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Not Synceda politics of the sort.
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Not SyncedAnd meanwhile, at DiEM25, we aim for a
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Not Syncednon-aligned, which doesn't mean neutral
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Not SyncedEurope.
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Not SyncedDo you believe this is currently a
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Not Syncedpossibility?
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Not SyncedAnd how do you believe it would impact
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Not Syncedthe potential for more democratic
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Not SyncedEuropean nations if we move in this
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Not Synceddirection?
-
Not SyncedYeah, I mean, I think it's tied to
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Not Syncedwhat I was saying before.
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Not SyncedBut so let me reframe it in a
-
Not Syncedmore accurate way.
-
Not SyncedI think the EU, again, not by its
-
Not Syncedown merits, but because of the effects of
-
Not Syncedwhat Trump has done in two months, has
-
Not Syncedbecome sort of disaligned from the US,
-
Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedAnd I am a bit, yeah, I will
-
Not Syncedsay I am hopeful that this is not
-
Not Syncedjust a passing sort of fleeting sentiment
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Not Syncedof like, oh, you know, Trump is horrible.
-
Not SyncedThen we'll go back to business.
-
Not SyncedI want to think that there is a
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Not Syncedlearning process going on, especially in
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Not Syncedthe way that we had, you know, Biden
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Not Syncedbetween these two Trump terms.
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Not SyncedI mean, the way that events have unfolded
-
Not Syncedwould mean that Europeans would be, you
-
Not Syncedknow, profoundly obtuse not to continue
-
Not Syncedinvesting in becoming independent from
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Not Syncedthe United States after Trump is gone.
-
Not SyncedAnd who knows what will happen in four
-
Not Syncedyears.
-
Not SyncedSo on that regard, I'm, let's say, mildly
-
Not Syncedhopeful, or at least I've been surprised
-
Not Syncedby the degree of result I've seen from
-
Not Syncedkey European figures.
-
Not SyncedSo I would not have expected to see
-
Not Synceda centre-right German politician say, my
-
Not Syncedfirst concern is becoming independent
-
Not Syncedfrom the United States, right?
-
Not SyncedI have to acknowledge that if I would
-
Not Syncedhave been told, will you see this in
-
Not Syncedthe next year, a couple months ago, I'd
-
Not Syncedhave said, no, absolutely not.
-
Not SyncedYou know, I think Europeans will try and
-
Not Syncedpaper over their differences with Trump,
-
Not Syncedbut fundamentally not change or, you
-
Not Syncedknow, within.
-
Not SyncedSo in that regard, yeah, but another, but
-
Not Syncedas I was saying before, if you look
-
Not Syncedat other issues, so if you look at
-
Not Syncedthe Palestinian question, right, if you
-
Not Syncedlook at migration policy, these are areas
-
Not Syncedthat where there's no change and where
-
Not Syncedthe current alignment or the current, you
-
Not Syncedknow, posture to the extent that you has
-
Not Synceda coherent posture, or the sum of the
-
Not Synceddifferent member states postures is
-
Not Syncedawful.
-
Not SyncedNow, there are a couple other instances,
-
Not Syncedwhich are a bit more, I guess, we
-
Not Syncedstill need to wait and see what happens.
-
Not SyncedBut so, for example, I would say, I'm
-
Not Syncedinterested to see what happens within
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Not Syncedrelations with China.
-
Not SyncedI think if you want to become autonomous
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Not Syncedfrom the US and, you know, secure from
-
Not SyncedRussia, and at the same time, you take
-
Not Syncedfighting climate change seriously, you
-
Not Syncedcannot afford to follow the US into a
-
Not Syncedconfrontation with China into the Indo
-
Not Synced-Pacific.
-
Not SyncedYou just can't.
-
Not SyncedYou need to find a better way to
-
Not Syncedengage with China, right?
-
Not SyncedSo the EU famously has this plan, or
-
Not Syncedthis platform where it views China as a
-
Not Syncedsort of, let me see if I get
-
Not Syncedthis correctly, as the ones, it is a
-
Not Syncedpartner, it is a competitor, and it is
-
Not Synceda rival, and different, and depending on
-
Not Syncedwhat policies you look at.
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