Trump, Ukraine and the Myth of a Democratic EU | Jorge Tamames Interview
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Not Synced[Tiare] Hello and welcome
to the channel of DiEM25. -
Not SyncedToday we are joined by
Jorge Tamames. -
Not SyncedHe has a PhD from
University College -
Not SyncedDublin and currently teaches European
-
Not SyncedPolitical Economy at the
-
Not SyncedUniversity Carlos III of Madrid.
-
Not SyncedJorge, thank you so much
for joining us today. -
Not SyncedHow are you doing?
-
Not Synced[Jorge] My pleasure.
-
Not SyncedThanks for having me.
-
Not SyncedAll is good here.
-
Not SyncedRainy day in Madrid.
-
Not SyncedRainy month, actually.
-
Not Synced[Tiare] Yeah, we're both
from Madrid, actually, -
Not Syncedso we've had two madrileños in a row.
-
Not SyncedI want to start talking about the
-
Not Syncedjoint press conference with President Volodymyr
-
Not Syncedand President Donald Trump
-
Not Syncedthat we recently saw
because what we want to -
Not Syncedtouch upon today mainly is the
-
Not Syncedgeopolitical tensions that
are currently happening -
Not Syncedespecially within Europe and
in relation to Ukraine. -
Not SyncedAnd obviously we
need to talk about -
Not Syncedthis joint press conference.
-
Not SyncedThis event saw the Ukrainian and American
-
Not Syncedleaders confront each other
in a blow-up -
Not Syncedthat ushers in a new phase of the
-
Not Syncedwar in Ukraine, one under
a Trump presidency. -
Not SyncedAnd I was wondering,
what do you make -
Not Syncedof the apparent antagonism
between the two leaders? -
Not Synced[Jorge] Well, the first thing
that I'll say is -
Not Syncedthat I had to watch the clip several
-
Not Syncedtimes and this is not
something that I usually do. -
Not SyncedMy background is
in foreign affairs. -
Not SyncedI studied international relations.
-
Not SyncedI worked at a foreign policy journal
-
Not Syncedin a think tank for a while,
-
Not Syncedso this is sort of my
bread and butter. -
Not SyncedAnd I had never seen an
exchange on that level. -
Not SyncedJust the humiliation
of a guest who is -
Not Syncedalso a head of state
in the White House -
Not Syncedin front of the press,
-
Not Syncedwith the press participating in it.
-
Not SyncedI was shocked and I am not usually
-
Not Syncedone to be sort of shocked.
-
Not SyncedTrump has always generated this sort of
-
Not Syncedsometimes a bit prudish reaction
-
Not Syncedregarding: oh, he doesn't respect norms.
-
Not SyncedHe doesn't respect due process.
-
Not SyncedHe's like this vulgar guy.
-
Not SyncedAnd I usually don't have
much patience for that, -
Not Syncedbut I was surprised.
-
Not SyncedI think on a formal level, it was
-
Not Syncedjust something very different to watch.
-
Not SyncedAnd I think, I guess it goes to
-
Not Syncedthe differences between his first
-
Not Syncedadministration and the second one.
-
Not SyncedThis is the kind of thing
you would have not -
Not Syncedseen in the first
Trump White House -
Not Syncedbecause at the end of the day,
he had to rely on a lot of -
Not Syncedpeople who were not Trump world
-
Not Syncedcharacters like he has
around him now, right? -
Not SyncedThese were more standard
Republican operators. -
Not SyncedRex Tillerson, the guy who first ran his
-
Not Synceddepartment of state, was a guy who came
-
Not Syncedfrom the big oil industry.
-
Not SyncedSo the more standard profiles you
-
Not Syncedwould see in a normal
Republican administration. -
Not SyncedSo in a way, I had this feeling
-
Not Syncedthat this was new ground.
-
Not SyncedThis entire concern
with Trump in the way -
Not Syncedthat he doesn't respect the
way things are usually done -
Not Syncedand so forth,
I found myself -
Not Syncedtaking it a bit more seriously in
-
Not Syncedthe last two months
than I did in the past. -
Not SyncedNow, the question,
what do I think -
Not Syncedit represented in terms
of the substance? -
Not SyncedI'm not sure to what extent
this style is going to work -
Not Syncedfor this administration
or not. -
Not SyncedAnd what I mean by that is
-
Not SyncedI think it was very counterproductive
-
Not Syncedin terms of, Trump has been
extraordinarily successful in -
Not Syncedgalvanising the EU to become
-
Not Syncedindependent or become
more autonomous -
Not Syncedfrom the U.S. with events
like this one -
Not Syncedor like J.D. Vance's visit in
-
Not Syncedthe Munich Security Conference,
right. -
Not SyncedAnd this is something that was not on
-
Not Syncedthe menu two months ago.
-
Not SyncedSo the future German Chancellor Merz,
-
Not Syncedwhen he was running
for office, -
Not Syncedhis whole deal was:
Oh no, we're going to get -
Not Syncedalong pretty well with Trump.
-
Not SyncedWe'll be able to reach some deals.
-
Not SyncedHe's not our favourite guy,
but we can -
Not Syncedactually live with this guy.
-
Not SyncedWe'll be pragmatic.
-
Not SyncedAnd on election night, he said:
-
Not SyncedMy first concern is to become
independent from the US. -
Not SyncedSo I think this has been
-
Not Syncedthe first effect of this
change in forms -
Not Syncedrather than substance,
because in terms -
Not Syncedof the substance, this is
the stuff he ran on. -
Not SyncedWell, the UK stuff,
not other stuff that -
Not Syncedhe's actually pushing
and we can talk about it. -
Not SyncedBut yeah, that's my reading of
-
Not Syncedthe whole scene.
-
Not SyncedAt first I was shocked.
-
Not SyncedAnd then looking at the reaction
-
Not SyncedI think, maybe they're
not reading the room correctly. -
Not SyncedI don't mean the room of the
meeting in which it took place, -
Not Syncedbut the broader room of
the way Europeans are -
Not Syncedgoing to react,
public opinion in Ukraine -
Not Syncedmight shift or not.
-
Not SyncedUltimately whether Russia
-
Not Syncedwill actually pick up on the deal
-
Not Syncedthat is being offered to
them at this point. -
Not Synced[Tiare] Right, just to check your
thoughts on another -
Not Syncedimportant point related to this newly
-
Not SyncedTrump administration era
-
Not Syncedthe United States and Ukraine
plan to sign a minerals deal, -
Not Syncedwhich has seen much controversy.
-
Not SyncedAccording to the deal, Ukraine will
-
Not Syncedcontribute 50% of future proceeds
-
Not Syncedfrom state owned mineral resources,
-
Not Syncedoil and gas to an investment fund,
-
Not Syncedwhich will then invest
to promote the safety, -
Not Syncedsecurity and prosperity of Ukraine.
-
Not SyncedThis deal appears to imply that private
-
Not Syncedcompanies will need
to get involved in -
Not Syncedthe mining process within the vague
-
Not Syncedinformation that we have been
receiving about this deal. -
Not SyncedDo you believe,
given what we know -
Not Synceddo you believe it can
be perceived as simply -
Not Syncedlaying bare the
American interest in -
Not Syncedexploiting Ukrainian
natural resources -
Not Syncedfor the benefit of the
American capitalist class? -
Not SyncedIs there anything in this for
working class Americans? -
Not Synced[Jorge] OK, so let's start
with the last part. -
Not SyncedIs there something in this for
working class Americans? -
Not SyncedI'd say no.
-
Not SyncedOn the face of it, there
doesn't seem to be much. -
Not SyncedI can have some sympathy
for the people -
Not Syncedwho voted for the first
Trump term, right, -
Not Syncedwith a working class background,
-
Not Syncedexpecting to get sort of a better deal
-
Not Syncedthan what was being offered
-
Not Syncedby Hillary Clinton in 2017.
-
Not SyncedBut at this point,
I think with Trump, -
Not Syncedyou sort of know what you're
getting to an extent. -
Not SyncedI'll qualify that a bit further on.
-
Not SyncedBut in terms of what is the
-
Not SyncedAmerican working class
getting out of this deal -
Not SyncedI don't know if this deal
is viable at all. -
Not SyncedSo sometimes it's
hard to take these -
Not Syncedannouncements on their face.
-
Not SyncedAnd usually they create outrage
-
Not Syncedof course, because it
looks like a shakeup -
Not Syncedand it seems to be a shakeup in
-
Not Syncedexchange for some very
dubious security guarantees. -
Not SyncedNow, I'm not an expert in rare earth
-
Not Syncedor their processing
or critical minerals. -
Not SyncedSo take this with a grain of salt,
-
Not Syncedpun unintended.
-
Not SyncedBut from what I've read,
it seems like -
Not Synceda lot of these rare earths
-
Not Syncedcome from old maps
from back in the -
Not SyncedSoviet Union in the
70s and 80s. -
Not SyncedIt's not sure whether
they can be mined -
Not Syncedor they're economically
viable as of today. -
Not SyncedA lot of the places that have to
-
Not Syncedbe mined are where the fighting
-
Not Syncedis taking place.
-
Not SyncedSo none of that was
a problem because -
Not Syncedyou even managed
to get a peace deal. -
Not SyncedSo then presumably
you'd get American -
Not Syncedcompanies that go there and
invest in the mining process, right? -
Not SyncedMining is an economic sector that
-
Not Syncedrequires a lot of
capital investment, -
Not Syncedlong time horizons
before you can get -
Not Syncedcredit on your investment
-
Not Syncedand a very stable, judicial
and regulatory framework. -
Not SyncedThese are not things
you're going to -
Not Syncedbe getting right now
in the Donbass region -
Not Syncedof Ukraine or even in Ukraine
-
Not Syncedor the full Russian occupied areas.
-
Not SyncedSo I don't see how this deal amounts
-
Not Syncedto much other than
something that -
Not SyncedTrump can announce
and feel happy about. -
Not SyncedI think here the
experience of his -
Not Syncedfirst term in office
is instructive. -
Not SyncedWe saw a lot of this during
the first Trump term. -
Not SyncedSo that's my general
read on the deal. -
Not SyncedSo then it seems like it
doesn't make much sense. -
Not SyncedBut one of the
interpretations I've heard -
Not Syncedwas that rather than coming
-
Not Syncedfrom the White House,
it was something -
Not Syncedthat the Ukrainians and Zelensky
pitched to Donald Trump. -
Not SyncedAgain, if that is the case,
-
Not Syncedthat seems to me a
sort of genius move -
Not Syncedto present him with
a deal that he likes -
Not Syncedand that is going to create some
shock and some support, -
Not Syncedbut there's very little
workable substance behind it. -
Not SyncedBut ultimately,
we'll have to wait and see. -
Not SyncedBut I don't think this deal as
of now leading anywhere. -
Not Synced[Tiare] Yeah,
I don't know. -
Not SyncedI just personally felt like this was
-
Not Syncedjust something, it's like:
-
Not SyncedWell, we should have known
-
Not Syncedif the U.S. is after anything or the EU.
-
Not SyncedNow we're going to get to that.
-
Not SyncedBut if after anything would end up
-
Not Syncedbe exploiting natural resources.
-
Not SyncedI think if we look at the history of
-
Not Syncedthe wars, especially that the U.S
-
Not Syncedhas enjoyed joining and pushing for.
-
Not SyncedI mean, I don't know.
-
Not SyncedI just I was quite
shocked that anyone -
Not Syncedwould be shocked at the U.S.
-
Not Syncedpursuing that kind of interest.
-
Not Synced[Jorge] I was also
shocked because this -
Not Syncedwas nowhere on the cards
during the campaign. right? -
Not Synced[Tiare] Yeah.
-
Not Synced[Jorge] Unless I'm much mistaken.
-
Not SyncedI don't remember hearing
about this at all -
Not Syncedthroughout the past year.
-
Not SyncedMaybe I'm wrong, but I'm getting the
sense and this is something -
Not SyncedI think is worth keeping in mind
-
Not Syncedbecause the pace
of announcements from -
Not Syncedthis administration in
the first month and a half -
Not Syncedhas been so overwhelming.
-
Not SyncedSometimes it's just
almost unavoidable -
Not Syncedthat you feel sort of demoralised
-
Not Syncedand overwhelmed and you don't even
have a grip on what is happening. -
Not SyncedI think at points like that,
it's worth keeping in mind -
Not Syncedthese guys won an election
for a variety of reasons -
Not SyncedBut an important one
was that there was -
Not Synceda critical mass of
Americans who thought -
Not Syncedthat prices were too high
and eggs were too expensive. -
Not SyncedSo, you can say these were
like 'economic anxiety' voters. -
Not Syncedwho voted because they
-
Not Syncedthought they were getting
a lousy deal with Biden. -
Not SyncedAnd the Trump campaign
did make a lot -
Not Syncedof emphasis on prices being
too high throughout the campaign. -
Not SyncedSo those people voted
with that in their mind. -
Not SyncedAnd what they got is a minerals deal
-
Not Syncedinvading the Panama Canal.
-
Not SyncedCanada should be the 51st state
-
Not Syncedand we should also own
Greenland. -
Not SyncedI don't see how that is working very
-
Not Syncedwell for your working class
-
Not Syncedeconomic anxiety Trump voter
in the long term. -
Not SyncedI don't think it's working for
the stock market either. -
Not SyncedYour traditional Republican
-
Not Syncedwho's just hoping
to get a good return -
Not Syncedon his investments from
the Trump presidency -
Not Syncedlike happened last time
-
Not Syncedwhen the stock market
was booming. -
Not SyncedSo I don't want to
be too mechanistic and say: -
Not SyncedOh, the economy doesn't work
so he'll run into trouble. -
Not SyncedBut it's worth keeping in
mind that we're getting -
Not Syncedannouncements of
different deals every day, -
Not Syncedbut he's not delivering on the
-
Not Syncedbasic deal that won
the election for him. -
Not SyncedHonestly, like I don't think a Trump
-
Not Syncedpresidency works for anyone,
obviously -
Not Syncednot the working class,
but also the vast -
Not Syncedparts of the capitalist class.
-
Not SyncedI don't think or especially the
-
Not Syncedprofessional managerial class.
-
Not SyncedI don't think they're
excited to have him. -
Not SyncedHence Trump derangement
syndrome. -
Not SyncedLike I believe that is
absolutely a thing. -
Not SyncedI wanted to ask you at the beginning
-
Not Syncedof this month of March,
Trump halted -
Not Syncedmilitary aid to Ukraine,
a cut that then -
Not Syncedexpanded to include
all military intelligence -
Not Syncedwhile acknowledging Russia's
-
Not Syncedguilt in illegally invading
a sovereign country.. -
Not SyncedWe will probably agree that finding
-
Not Synceda diplomatic solution that seeks to
-
Not Syncedde-escalate the military
conflict should be prioritised. -
Not SyncedDo you believe these
steps taken by -
Not SyncedPresident Trump bear any
positive aspects at all -
Not Syncedor are they counterproductive
to the sense? -
Not SyncedWell, I'm going to give you my easy
-
Not Syncedanswer, sort of a cop out.
-
Not SyncedBut I do think it's too soon to tell
-
Not Syncedbecause we don't know if this deal
-
Not Syncedat this stage, this compromise
has buy in from the Russians. -
Not SyncedWhat we know is
that the Ukrainian side -
Not Syncedhas sort of been strong armed
to the negotiating table. -
Not SyncedNow, I think if you look at this war
-
Not Syncednone of the sides were going to
-
Not Syncedget what they wanted originally.
-
Not SyncedSo Russia wanted to
topple the entirety -
Not Syncedof the Ukrainian government,
-
Not Syncedto march to Kiev, to install
a puppet regime, -
Not Syncedand to annex the four regions
-
Not Syncedthat it proclaimed
are part of new Russia. -
Not SyncedThis is a term they used
to refer to them. -
Not SyncedAnd then on the Ukrainian
side, at one point -
Not Syncedthere was even talk of launching
-
Not Syncedan offensive and being
able to retake Crimea. -
Not SyncedThis was really always,
always a far-fetched idea. -
Not SyncedSo neither side got what it
originally wanted from this war. -
Not SyncedAnd so sooner or later,
-
Not Syncedyou're going to have
a negotiation, right? -
Not SyncedNow, the question is,
what does that -
Not Syncednegotiation actually look like?
-
Not SyncedIf you had a peace settlement now,
-
Not Syncedwhere Ukraine was forced to
make a lot of concessions -
Not Syncedand really, the underlying
-
Not Syncedissue was never resolved
-
Not Syncedand there's hostility
between Ukraine and Russia, -
Not Syncedyou'd basically have a rerun of the
-
Not SyncedMinsk 1 and 2 accords after 2014, right?
-
Not SyncedSo I think you could envision a scenario
-
Not Syncedin which you say:
Oh, well, you know, -
Not Syncedyou reach some sort
of deal that at this point, -
Not Syncedt,it seems like will please the
-
Not SyncedRussian side much more so
than the Ukrainian one. -
Not SyncedAlthough it is worth
keeping in mind two things -
Not Syncedone that a couple months ago
-
Not Syncedif you looked at polling,
-
Not Syncedpublic opinion polling in Ukraine,
-
Not Syncedthere was a plurality or a slim majority
-
Not Syncedof people who said:
yeah, we want a deal, -
Not Syncedwe hope we can get on with Trump.
-
Not SyncedThat has changed slightly, I think,
-
Not Syncedbecause of the systematic humiliations
-
Not Syncedthat Trump has visited upon
-
Not SyncedUkraine's leadership
and Ukrainians in general. -
Not SyncedAnd I think now that
their resolve is hardening. -
Not SyncedSo again, that's another example of this
-
Not Syncedadministration being very
counterproductive. -
Not SyncedBut if you assume that there's
-
Not Syncedthe space for making a deal, fine.
-
Not SyncedThe question is, what happens
the day after that? -
Not SyncedIf we have the precedent
of 2014 leading to 2022, -
Not Syncedthen how do you avoid having
-
Not Synceda deal reached today leading to another conflict
-
Not Syncedfive years down the line or
seven years down the line, right? -
Not SyncedSo I think that's the big question that
-
Not Syncedwe really should be thinking about
-
Not Syncedwhat's going to happen after that deal.
-
Not SyncedI do want to ask you about
-
Not Syncedwhat you think would be
-
Not Syncedthe best case scenario,
the best solution, if you will. -
Not SyncedBut first, I want to discuss
the European side of this. -
Not SyncedThis month has also seen
Ursula von der Leyen -
Not Syncedunveil a plan to rearm Europe,
-
Not Syncedannouncing we are in
an era of rearmament. -
Not SyncedThis includes defence investment loans
-
Not Syncedto member states, use of the EU budget
-
Not Syncedto direct more funds
towards defence related -
Not Syncedinvestments and deploying
private capital. -
Not Synced.
-
Not SyncedHow do you regard this initiative?
-
Not SyncedI'll say a couple of things
about it that -
Not SyncedI think are good, because then
-
Not SyncedI have several misgivings
-
Not Syncedthat I want to explore it at night.
-
Not SyncedI think to some extent, it is better than
-
Not Syncedthe alternative of what Trump was
-
Not Syncedproposing, right, which was that each
-
Not SyncedEuropean state raise defence
spending to 5% of GDP. -
Not SyncedAnd it's good in that it takes the
-
Not SyncedEU as the political subject that needs
-
Not Syncedto make these decisions.
-
Not SyncedSo it's not NATO, which at this point iz
-
Not Syncedbecoming more and more
-
Not Synceddysfunctional with each passing day, right?
-
Not SyncedSo it's the EU that needs to take
-
Not Syncedits own defence seriously and become
-
Not Syncedautonomous at a time when it's being
-
Not Syncedthreatened by both
Trump and Putin, right? -
Not SyncedSo that's what I think is good about the deal.
-
Not SyncedAnd the fact that is
-
Not Syncedthe approach is sort of ambition when you
-
Not Syncedlook at, well, not exactly the scale of
-
Not Syncedbillions that is mobilised, because here
-
Not Syncedthere's always a bit of creative accounting
-
Not Syncedthat we're used to see
from Brussels, right? -
Not SyncedSo I think if you compare it to
next generation EU, -
Not Syncedit's lacking in that respect.
-
Not SyncedBut when you take into
-
Not Syncedconsideration the fact that it's
-
Not Syncedhappening at the same
time as Germany, -
Not Syncedfor example, reforms its debt rate,
-
Not Syncedright, the constitutional amendment,
-
Not Syncedand makes it more flexible,
-
Not Syncedthat just happened today,
then you get a sense -
Not Syncedthat there's an ambition to match
-
Not Syncedwhat otherwise would be
just like lofty declarations. -
Not SyncedSo what I think is more problematic about
-
Not Syncedit is that it basically thinks
about European defence. -
Not SyncedAnd what they do is like you start
-
Not Syncedwith what you have, and you work
towards the number, right? -
Not SyncedThis is the way that all
these discussions unfold. -
Not SyncedSo what do you have is, European
-
Not Synceddefence, when you look at overall
-
Not Syncedspending numbers, it's not
actually a small number. -
Not Syncedwe're used to thinking that
Europe doesn't spend, that -
Not Syncedthe EU doesn't spend
enough on defence. -
Not SyncedAnd when you look at the aggregate numbers
-
Not Synceddepending on the metrics you use
-
Not Syncedbut we do spend several times more
-
Not Syncedthan Russia does.
-
Not SyncedAnd if you also take the UK into
-
Not Syncedconsideration, right, sort of these
-
Not Syncedlike minded allies, then you have almost
-
Not Syncedtwice the defence budget of China.
-
Not SyncedSo that's not an insignificant
number by any means. -
Not SyncedThe problem is, and you know, this is
-
Not Syncedsort of well known by now that it's
-
Not Syncedextraordinarily inefficient,
-
Not Syncedbecause it's fragmented
and 27 different armies. -
Not SyncedAnd so you don't generate
economies of scale. -
Not SyncedYou don't generate the investment
-
Not Syncedyou would need to have a
-
Not Syncedcompetitive defence industry that spans
-
Not Syncedthe entire union and so forth.
-
Not SyncedSo the problem that I see is what
-
Not Syncedthis programme does is mainly it focusses on
-
Not Syncednational defence budgets and says:
-
Not Syncedyeah, you can raise them,
we expect to get 650 -
Not SyncedI think it's 600, 650 billion
euros out of that. -
Not SyncedAnd we will loosen the fiscal rules so
-
Not Syncedthat this doesn't immediately fall into
-
Not Syncedthe excessive deficit procedure, right,
-
Not Syncedfor countries like Spain, for example, or
-
Not Syncedfor most European countries who have to
-
Not Syncedundergo this investment.
-
Not SyncedNow, how long would that last for?
-
Not SyncedIs that the way to like build a
-
Not SyncedEuropean defence capability?
-
Not SyncedI'm very sceptical of it, right?
-
Not SyncedThe way I would go about it is
slightly different. -
Not SyncedI would think: okay, so we're in
-
Not Syncedone of those rare moments of crisis in
-
Not Syncedthe EU right now, similar
to the COVID crisis -
Not Syncedwhere the more ambitious
-
Not Syncedsolutions are also the
more pragmatic, right? -
Not SyncedUsually it's the opposite, right?
-
Not SyncedIt's like, oh, you know, we're
asking for a pie in the sky. -
Not SyncedSo I think you should start with
-
Not Syncedthe most ambitious proposal you can
-
Not Syncedconsider and then work with that towards,
-
Not Syncedlanding that on the framework
that you can work with. -
Not SyncedAnd so what would that look like?
-
Not SyncedI think it would entail acknowledging
-
Not Syncedthat yes, there is a security threat,
-
Not Syncedeven if the Ukraine situation is solved
-
Not Syncedimmediately, right?
-
Not SyncedYou need to have the deterrence
-
Not Syncedcapability to avoid a scenario like 2014
-
Not Syncedto 2022, like what we
were talking about before. -
Not SyncedBut then it should be the EU that
-
Not Syncedprovides that, not NATO.
-
Not SyncedYou should not rely
on the United States. -
Not SyncedThe United States is not an ally in
-
Not Syncedany sense of the word anymore.
-
Not SyncedSo you need to do this on your own.
-
Not SyncedAnd you also need to define
security very broadly -
Not SyncedI think, for this to work.
-
Not SyncedSo yes, a part of it has to
-
Not Synceddo with like defence, right?
-
Not SyncedAnd what we were just talking about.
-
Not SyncedAnd this is what usually all the
-
Not Syncedconversation focusses on.
-
Not SyncedAnd that's part of the deal.
-
Not SyncedBut there's other stuff that the EU needs
-
Not Syncedto do to actually establish a
security worthy of that name. -
Not SyncedSo at least three other
areas besides defence. -
Not SyncedOne would be climate security.
-
Not SyncedYou know, you need to
become energy independent -
Not Syncednot just from Russia and oil and gas
-
Not Syncedbut from the United States
or the Gulf states. -
Not SyncedAnd that involves being very ambitious
-
Not Syncedwith the ongoing green transition.
-
Not SyncedSo you need to double down on that,
-
Not Syncednot cut your resources to focus
-
Not Syncedexclusively on defence.
-
Not SyncedIf you adopt a broad
conception of security -
Not Syncedthat is also something that you
-
Not Syncedneed to take into consideration.
-
Not SyncedYou can't just leave it in the back
-
Not Syncedburner and expect things to
get better in the future. -
Not SyncedYou also need to think of economic
-
Not Syncedsecurity, right?
-
Not SyncedIn terms of having a financial
-
Not Syncedarchitecture that does not depend on the
-
Not Synceddollar system or US
payment platforms, right? -
Not SyncedThat involves anything from having a more
-
Not Syncedinternationalised euro to having
-
Not Synceda digital euro as a tool for payments, right?
-
Not SyncedYou can get really down to the
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Not Syncedweeds of like the policies
that you need for this. -
Not SyncedBut there's a big plank that has to
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Not Synceddo with your economic model, the fiscal rules
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Not Syncedthat are extremely outdated,
-
Not Syncedeven after this programme, right?
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Not SyncedThey should be completely overhauled if
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Not Syncedyou really want to meet the challenge
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Not Syncedthat you face right now.
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Not SyncedFourth area, and final one, would be
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Not Syncedsecurity from a social standpoint.
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Not SyncedIf you do all these things and at
-
Not Syncedthe same time, you have to do austerity
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Not Syncedbecause you have to balance a budget,
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Not Syncedthen that defeats the
purpose of any of this. -
Not SyncedEspecially keeping in mind that we
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Not Syncedknow by now and there's considerable
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Not Syncedevidence that doing austerity,
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Not Synceddoing budgetary cuts,
trimming down the welfare state -
Not Syncedactually empowers the very friends
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Not Syncedof Trump and Putin that are already
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Not Syncedreasonably strong in a
lot of European states. -
Not SyncedSo if you want to stop the far Right
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Not Syncedand if there's anything in the EU
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Not Syncedthat is worth fighting for, it's probably
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Not Synceda socioeconomic model that
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Not Syncedprovides social security in the form of
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Not Syncedthe welfare state, public health care,
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Not Syncedpublic education, pensions, you name it.
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Not SyncedSo that has to be a big part of it.
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Not SyncedAnd so you get these four things and
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Not Syncedthen you think, okay, how are we going
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Not Syncedto pay for them?
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Not SyncedAnd then I think, a mixture
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Not Syncedof having more mutualised European debt,
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Not Syncedlike next generation, and having its own,
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Not Syncedfiscal capacity in terms of,
-
Not SyncedI don't know, I would consider not just
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Not Syncedpunishing Russian oligarchs, but taxing
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Not Syncedthe activity of American tech oligarchs
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Not Syncedfor the EU to generate its own resources.
-
Not SyncedAnd there are ways to do that, right?
-
Not SyncedAnd you can talk about Russian stranded
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Not Syncedassets and a number of other sources of
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Not Syncedrevenue that you can tax.
-
Not SyncedSo you'd have to be much more broad
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Not Syncedin your conception of security and not
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Not Syncedjust focus on the defence industry
-
Not Syncedand defence spending from
a national perspective. -
Not SyncedBecause ultimately, I mean,
I hope this doesn't happen. -
Not SyncedAnd there's still ongoing discussion.
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Not SyncedBut if this ends up being an excuse
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Not Syncedfor member states to spend more money
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Not Syncedwithout clear strategic goals, and that
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Not Syncedends up being, well, I don't know, buying
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Not SyncedAmerican equipment, and increasing a
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Not Syncedsecurity dependence that is already
-
Not Syncedthere, then you've doubled
down on a problem, right? -
Not SyncedSo, you know, I think there's
some good elements to it. -
Not SyncedBut I think it could be much improved
-
Not Syncedand still needs a broader definition
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Not Syncedof security and much more fiscal ambition.
-
Not SyncedSo basically, are you saying you think it
-
Not Syncedwould be preferable for member states to
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Not Syncedmake less of a decision here and for
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Not Syncedthe EU to have a more
coordinated plan? -
Not SyncedAnd I'm just wondering, do you think the
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Not SyncedEuropean Union, and I'm not talking
-
Not SyncedEurope, I'm talking the European Union,
-
Not Syncedwould ever take that
non-aligned perspective? -
Not SyncedDo you think that's plausible?
-
Not SyncedDon't you feel like maybe European
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Not Syncednations themselves would be more likely
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Not Syncedto, if they were democratic enough to not
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Not Syncedbe that constrained by the
-
Not SyncedEuropean Union.
-
Not SyncedDon't you feel like they would
try to be non-aligned? -
Not SyncedObviously, I'm kind of generalising here.
-
Not SyncedBut I don't know, I'm just wondering, do
-
Not Syncedyou have hopes in the EU?
-
Not SyncedOr do you have hopes in Europe?
-
Not SyncedAnd yeah, what do you think is more
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Not Syncedlikely like for the EU to actually take
-
Not Synceda non-aligned stance or
for European countries? -
Not SyncedBecause I don't know, I just struggle to
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Not Syncedbelieve that the EU would ever do that.
-
Not SyncedSo I kind of have the opposite reaction
-
Not Syncedin that I would have more hope in
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Not SyncedEuropean nations individually
-
Not Syncedtaking that sort of stance and
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Not Syncedmaking the right investments, or Europe
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Not Syncedas a sort of region rather than the
-
Not SyncedEU specifically.
-
Not SyncedBut let me know your thoughts about this.
-
Not SyncedSo I think there's one thing that is:
-
Not Syncedokay, should the EU pull
its capacities together? -
Not SyncedThat's one thing, right?
-
Not SyncedAnd have like a more federated approach
-
Not Syncedto these threats that it faces now, and
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Not Syncedthese challenges in the form of Russia,
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Not Syncedof the United States,
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Not Syncedof having to develop its own autonomy.
-
Not SyncedAnd then the other question is about
-
Not SyncedEurope's alignment, right?
-
Not SyncedI'm going to try
and parse them out -
Not Syncedbecause I think
they're slightly distinct. -
Not SyncedSo the question, the way this is always
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Not Syncedposed is this question of, oh, should you
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Not Syncedhave a European army, right?
-
Not SyncedAnd usually this is sort of like
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Not Syncedsomething that doesn't get discussed a
-
Not Syncedlot beyond the theoretical level, right?
-
Not SyncedBecause there are like many operational
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Not Syncedand political hurdles along the way, but
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Not Syncedmostly it's a question of political will,
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Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedThat European states are reticent to
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Not Syncedshare that degree of sovereignty.
-
Not SyncedNow, I just think if you really are
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Not Syncedserious about having deterrence
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Not Syncedcapability against Russia, which I think
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Not Syncedis very different from sort of getting
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Not Syncedinvolved in warmongering, right?
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Not SyncedAfter all, like Russia is the country
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Not Syncedthat has the largest nuclear stockpile in
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Not Syncedthe world.
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Not SyncedSo I think anyone who was actively
-
Not Syncedengaging in pushing them towards a war
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Not Syncedwould be an idiot to do so.
-
Not SyncedBut I do think you need to develop
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Not Synceddeterrent capability.
-
Not SyncedIt makes much more sense to do that
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Not Syncedon an EU level than for each European
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Not Syncedstate on its own.
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Not SyncedUnless you're willing to sustain, I don't
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Not Syncedknow, five, six percent of the GDP of
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Not Syncedevery European state spent, or in my
-
Not Syncedview, wasted on defence, right?
-
Not SyncedSo it's an idea, I mean, whose time
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Not Syncedhas come in the sense that it's the
-
Not Syncedeasiest way out of this problem.
-
Not SyncedNow, then the question, of course, is
-
Not Syncedlike, what does a more united EU in
-
Not Syncedthe realms of foreign policy and defence
-
Not Syncedpolicy stand for in the world, right?
-
Not SyncedThat question of like, oh, can Europe be
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Not Syncednon-aligned?
-
Not SyncedI would say Europe today is sort of
-
Not Synceddisaligned, right?
-
Not SyncedBecause correct me if I'm wrong, but the
-
Not Syncedway you would have posed this question
-
Not Syncedtwo months ago is that the EU is
-
Not Syncedoverly aligned with the United States and
-
Not Syncedjust following the United States
-
Not Syncedinitiative.
-
Not SyncedOvernight, that has changed very
-
Not Synceddramatically.
-
Not SyncedAnd so the EU already de facto finds
-
Not Synceditself in a place where it's having to
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Not Syncedcome up with its own autonomous posture
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Not Syncedin regards, for example, to what happened
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Not Syncedin Ukraine, right?
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Not SyncedNow, that position is the one it was
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Not Syncedholding before the United States changed
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Not Syncedgears.
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Not SyncedBut I think it's an interesting process.
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Not SyncedNow, I will say about that, that hasn't
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Not Syncedcome to fruition because European leaders
-
Not Syncedsuddenly took that decision.
-
Not SyncedIt's because Trump snubbed them and then
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Not Syncedhumiliated a few of them and has done
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Not Syncedeverything within his power to make that
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Not Syncedoutcome possible.
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Not SyncedSo I would think the challenge is not
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Not Syncedfor the EU to strike its own path
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Not Syncedaway from Trump now.
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Not SyncedThe question is maintaining this after
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Not SyncedTrump is gone.
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Not SyncedAnd I'm sort of looking too far into
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Not Syncedthe future.
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Not SyncedBut if you think of, you know, what
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Not Syncedhappened during the Biden presidency, or
-
Not Syncedeven if you want to go further back
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Not Syncedin time after the Iraq war, when there
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Not Syncedwas also talk of the need of becoming
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Not Syncedmore detached in foreign policy positions
-
Not Syncedfrom the United States, what do you see
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Not Syncedis that when the good times come back,
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Not Syncedand that usually means when there's a
-
Not SyncedDemocrat in the White House, Europeans
-
Not Syncedbecome complacent.
-
Not SyncedSo this is an effort that you really
-
Not Syncedneed to sustain in time.
-
Not SyncedNow, finally, and this is the hardest
-
Not Syncedquestion to which I don't have an answer
-
Not Syncedother than to say that the EU is,
-
Not Syncedin spite of like making progress on all
-
Not Syncedthese areas, and I think a lot of
-
Not Syncedthis is actually interesting and
-
Not Syncedworthwhile, but it has some huge flaws in
-
Not Syncedregards to how it aligns in the world,
-
Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedJust consider the now ongoing genocide in
-
Not SyncedGaza, right?
-
Not SyncedWe learned today that Israel resumed
-
Not Syncedoperations and killed between three and
-
Not Synced400 Palestinians in one night.
-
Not SyncedAnd the EU has been shamefully muted on
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Not Syncedthis issue, except for a few voices,
-
Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedAnd for the most part, has acquiesced to
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Not Syncedwhat is basically a genocide on its
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Not Synceddoorstep.
-
Not SyncedSo I think striking a sort of, you
-
Not Syncedknow, assertive position in defence of
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Not SyncedUkraine's right to defend itself from
-
Not Syncedannihilation, in the face of an
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Not Syncedimperialist neighbour, it's all very well
-
Not Syncedand good.
-
Not SyncedLike, I'm all for that position.
-
Not SyncedI just think there should be coherence.
-
Not SyncedIt should also be held in Gaza, right?
-
Not SyncedLike, you know, the EU should be much
-
Not Syncedfirmer in its condemnation of Israel.
-
Not SyncedSo that's one thing where its present
-
Not Synceddisposition, its present alignment is
-
Not Syncedvery much lacking and very disappointing.
-
Not SyncedThe same is true of migration policy,
-
Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedI mean, we like to act scandalised at
-
Not Syncedthe policies that the Trump
-
Not Syncedadministration applies, but they're not
-
Not Syncedthat different.
-
Not SyncedAnd in fact, many of them are directly
-
Not Syncedinspired in what we do in our own
-
Not Syncedborders.
-
Not SyncedSo, you know, I do think the EU
-
Not Syncedis taking several steps to become more
-
Not Syncedautonomous from the US.
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Not SyncedI am sceptical that the way it is
-
Not Synceddoing so is the best, the most useful,
-
Not Syncedand that it's not, that it doesn't have
-
Not Syncedseveral aspects of it that can be
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Not Syncedcounterproductive.
-
Not SyncedBut I realise that there are some areas
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Not Syncedwhere the state of affairs right now is
-
Not Syncedpretty awful.
-
Not SyncedIt certainly is.
-
Not SyncedAnd I want to dive a little deeper
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Not Syncedinto this topic of non-alignment.
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Not SyncedI think the EU, yes, it's not complacent
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Not Syncedto the Trump presidency.
-
Not SyncedBut I mean, I think it still is
-
Not Syncedto the sort of what they understand as
-
Not Syncedthe default US, right, which is Democrats
-
Not Syncedor, you know, never Trump Republicans and
-
Not Synceda politics of the sort.
-
Not SyncedAnd meanwhile, at DiEM25, we aim for a
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Not Syncednon-aligned, which doesn't mean neutral
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Not SyncedEurope.
-
Not SyncedDo you believe this is currently a
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Not Syncedpossibility?
-
Not SyncedAnd how do you believe it would impact
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Not Syncedthe potential for more democratic
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Not SyncedEuropean nations if we move in this
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Not Synceddirection?
-
Not SyncedYeah, I mean, I think it's tied to
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Not Syncedwhat I was saying before.
-
Not SyncedBut so let me reframe it in a
-
Not Syncedmore accurate way.
-
Not SyncedI think the EU, again, not by its
-
Not Syncedown merits, but because of the effects of
-
Not Syncedwhat Trump has done in two months, has
-
Not Syncedbecome sort of disaligned from the US,
-
Not Syncedright?
-
Not SyncedAnd I am a bit, yeah, I will
-
Not Syncedsay I am hopeful that this is not
-
Not Syncedjust a passing sort of fleeting sentiment
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Not Syncedof like, oh, you know, Trump is horrible.
-
Not SyncedThen we'll go back to business.
-
Not SyncedI want to think that there is a
-
Not Syncedlearning process going on, especially in
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Not Syncedthe way that we had, you know, Biden
-
Not Syncedbetween these two Trump terms.
-
Not SyncedI mean, the way that events have unfolded
-
Not Syncedwould mean that Europeans would be, you
-
Not Syncedknow, profoundly obtuse not to continue
-
Not Syncedinvesting in becoming independent from
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Not Syncedthe United States after Trump is gone.
-
Not SyncedAnd who knows what will happen in four
-
Not Syncedyears.
-
Not SyncedSo on that regard, I'm, let's say, mildly
-
Not Syncedhopeful, or at least I've been surprised
-
Not Syncedby the degree of result I've seen from
-
Not Syncedkey European figures.
-
Not SyncedSo I would not have expected to see
-
Not Synceda centre-right German politician say, my
-
Not Syncedfirst concern is becoming independent
-
Not Syncedfrom the United States, right?
-
Not SyncedI have to acknowledge that if I would
-
Not Syncedhave been told, will you see this in
-
Not Syncedthe next year, a couple months ago, I'd
-
Not Syncedhave said, no, absolutely not.
-
Not SyncedYou know, I think Europeans will try and
-
Not Syncedpaper over their differences with Trump,
-
Not Syncedbut fundamentally not change or, you
-
Not Syncedknow, within.
-
Not SyncedSo in that regard, yeah, but another, but
-
Not Syncedas I was saying before, if you look
-
Not Syncedat other issues, so if you look at
-
Not Syncedthe Palestinian question, right, if you
-
Not Syncedlook at migration policy, these are areas
-
Not Syncedthat where there's no change and where
-
Not Syncedthe current alignment or the current, you
-
Not Syncedknow, posture to the extent that you has
-
Not Synceda coherent posture, or the sum of the
-
Not Synceddifferent member states postures is
-
Not Syncedawful.
-
Not SyncedNow, there are a couple other instances,
-
Not Syncedwhich are a bit more, I guess, we
-
Not Syncedstill need to wait and see what happens.
-
Not SyncedBut so, for example, I would say, I'm
-
Not Syncedinterested to see what happens within
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Not Syncedrelations with China.
-
Not SyncedI think if you want to become autonomous
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Not Syncedfrom the US and, you know, secure from
-
Not SyncedRussia, and at the same time, you take
-
Not Syncedfighting climate change seriously, you
-
Not Syncedcannot afford to follow the US into a
-
Not Syncedconfrontation with China into the Indo
-
Not Synced-Pacific.
-
Not SyncedYou just can't.
-
Not SyncedYou need to find a better way to
-
Not Syncedengage with China, right?
-
Not SyncedSo the EU famously has this plan, or
-
Not Syncedthis platform where it views China as a
-
Not Syncedsort of, let me see if I get
-
Not Syncedthis correctly, as the ones, it is a
-
Not Syncedpartner, it is a competitor, and it is
-
Not Synceda rival, and different, and depending on
-
Not Syncedwhat policies you look at.
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