While most AI development is beneficial, artificial superintelligence threatens humanity with extinction. We have no method to currently control an entity with greater intelligence than us. We currently have no ability to predict the intelligence of advanced AIs prior to developing them, and we have incredibly limited methods to accurately measure their competence after development.

We now stand at a time of peril. Companies across the globe are investing to create artificial superintelligence – that they believe will surpass the collective capabilities of all humans. They publicly state that it is not a matter of “if” such superintelligence might exist, but “when”.

We do not know how to control AI vastly more powerful than us. Should attempts to build superintelligence succeed, this would risk our extinction as a species. But humanity can choose a different future: there is a narrow path through.

A new and ambitious future lies beyond a narrow path. A future driven by human advancement and technological progress. One where humanity fulfils the dreams and aspirations of our ancestors to end disease and extreme poverty, achieves virtually limitless energy, lives longer and healthier lives, and travels the cosmos. That future requires us to be in control of that which we create, including AI.

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The above paragraphs appear at the start of the document "A Narrow Path" which was recently published by Control AI. See https://www.narrowpath.co/.

That document sets out a comprehensive policy plan split into three phases: Safety, Stability, and Flourishing. To be clear, this is no anti-AI campaign, but rather an initiative to “build a robust science and metrology of intelligence, safe-by-design AI engineering, and other foundations for transformative AI under human control”.

Shortly after the launch of "A Narrow Path", another document was published: "The Compendium", which covers what can be seen as the larger picture behind the thinking of "A Narrow Path".

See https://www.thecompendium.ai/.

The Compendium starts as follows:

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Today, ideologically motivated groups are driving an arms race to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), backed by Big Tech, and are vying for the support of nations. If these actors succeed in their goal of creating AI that is more powerful than humanity, without the necessary solutions to safety, it is game over for all of us. There is currently no solution to keep AI safe.

In order to do something about these risks, we must understand them fully.

The Compendium aims to present a coherent worldview explaining the race to AGI and extinction risks and what to do about them, in a way that is accessible to non-technical readers who have no prior knowledge about AI. You can read this end-to-end or a-la-carte. Each section is standalone.

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Both documents are full of rich analyses, and are likely to transform public discussion about the future of AI. Both are described as work-in-progress, which means that each of us has the chance to suggest improvements.

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This London Futurists webinar featured two of the authors of "A Narrow Path" and "The Compendium", along with a number of expert commentators who brought their own varied perspectives.

Topics covered include:
*) Why a "narrow path"?
*) The big picture
*) The existential dangers of uncontrolled AI development
*) Potential solutions to secure a world of flourishing

The panellists:

Chris Scammell, the COO of Conjecture and one of the principal authors of The Compendium;
Andrea Miotti, the Executive Director of Control AI and the lead author of A Narrow Path;
Robert Whitfield, Chair of Trustees of One World Trust;
Mariana Todorova, a core member of the team in the Millennium Project studying scenarios for the transition between AI and AGI;
Daniel Faggella, the Founder and Head of Research of Emerj.

The event was introduced and moderated by David Wood, Chair of London Futurists.

For more information about this event and the speakers, see https://www.meetup.com/london-futurists/events/304331162/.

For a list of selected questions submitted by audience members during the meeting, and some answers, see https://dw2blog.com/2024/11/12/the-narrow-path-questions-and-answers/.