El Premio Rei Jaume I Sergio Vicente considera fundamental anticiparse a los efectos de las sequías

This DANA storm has been very severe.

It has been the maximum rainfall
recorded in 12 hours.

Never in Spain had such intense
precipitation been recorded

by instrumental records
in this time interval,

but we can't say that it is
an anomalous phenomenon,

with no precedents, there are
multiple meteorological records

even of more intense rainfall
over 24-hour periods,

and also if we move, for example,
to documentary sources

and even to sedimentary records

the DANAs are a frequent and natural
phenomenon of the Spanish east coast.

Could it be linked to climate change?

At this moment, attributing
these events to climate change

is a debated issue,
it’s complex

because atmospheric dynamics
is the main conditioning factor

and they are phenomena
where still thermodynamics

doesn't have that predominant role

which has that detachment
of a cold air mass

that arrives at this latitude.

However, we can't forget
that we are in conditions

with a warmer atmosphere
and a warmer Mediterranean Sea

due to climate change.

When such a meteorological
weather phenomenon occurs

it isn't risky to suggest
the hypothesis that these conditions

of increased warming may make
these events more violent

when these cold air pockets occur.

We can't say that when a drought
occurs in our region,

it is due to conditions
caused by climate change.

When there is a precipitation deficit,

due to the natural variability
of the climate, it is natural.

The problem is
that there is a warming

due to greenhouse gas emissions,

and this has an effect on the water
that our atmosphere demands.

Our atmosphere is demanding
more and more water

because it's warmer,
which causes more drying

because there are
higher evaporation rates

and higher water losses
to the atmosphere,

and in conditions where we have
low soil moisture

vegetation suffers more
if the atmosphere demands more water,

physiological processes occur

that cause the vegetation to be
conditions of greater stress.

So that climate change
associated with further warming

is leading to more severe droughts,

but not directly associated
to changes in precipitation

and this is evident and clearly seen
in the current processes

that we observe with the existing
meteorological records.