8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest
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0:08 - 0:11So about 11 years ago,
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0:12 - 0:15I gave a talk in California
at the TED Conference. -
0:16 - 0:19And it went really well.
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0:19 - 0:22It was called "10 ways
the world could end tomorrow." -
0:23 - 0:24But it also went viral
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0:24 - 0:28at a time before
things started going viral, -
0:28 - 0:30and it wasn't in a good way.
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0:30 - 0:33It ended up on thousands
of nutty websites. -
0:33 - 0:38These are the kind of websites for people
who think "Men in Black" is a documentary. -
0:38 - 0:40(Laughter)
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0:40 - 0:43It's the kind of websites
for people who actually believe -
0:43 - 0:46the Mayan calendar does predict doomsday.
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0:48 - 0:50So if you'd googled me before this talk,
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0:50 - 0:52you would have seen
maybe nine or ten references to me -
0:52 - 0:54as a science magazine editor.
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0:55 - 0:56Three weeks after the talk,
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0:56 - 0:59there were 418 references
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0:59 - 1:03linking "moi" to little
green men from Mars. -
1:04 - 1:05Now, coincidentally,
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1:05 - 1:09I was teaching my mother
how to use a computer at the time, -
1:09 - 1:11(Laughter)
-
1:11 - 1:13long distance,
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1:13 - 1:15and I was teaching her about Google.
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1:15 - 1:18So guess who she googled first.
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1:18 - 1:19(Laughter)
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1:20 - 1:22So ...
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1:22 - 1:23(Laughter)
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1:23 - 1:24['Steve, are you in trouble?']
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1:24 - 1:27I started worrying about
my reputation a little. -
1:27 - 1:31And I decided to call
Chris Anderson, the TED curator. -
1:31 - 1:33I knew Chris would not want TED speakers
-
1:33 - 1:37to be co-opted
by every nut job on the web, -
1:37 - 1:41and maybe he could get his friends
Larry and Serge at Google -
1:41 - 1:43to erase all this.
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1:45 - 1:47I was a little disappointed.
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1:47 - 1:48['Hmmm, sorry about that']
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1:48 - 1:51Didn't exactly get the sympathy
I was looking for. -
1:51 - 1:53Chris thought it was funny.
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1:53 - 1:55But he did ask me to do another TED Talk,
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1:55 - 1:59and I jumped at the chance
because I saw it as redemption. -
2:00 - 2:04I could do "10 reasons
to be optimistic about the future." -
2:04 - 2:06And I did. It was a great talk.
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2:06 - 2:09Honestly, my best talk ever.
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2:10 - 2:14Full of surprises.
Lots of interesting science. -
2:15 - 2:17But it didn't go over so well.
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2:17 - 2:21Everybody wanted another 10 ways
the world could end suddenly. -
2:21 - 2:24['Why didn't you do 10 more ways
the world could end? -
2:24 - 2:25And what about global warming?']
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2:25 - 2:28And no one posted the optimistic talk.
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2:28 - 2:30So when Mike and Linda asked me
to give a talk at TEDx -
2:30 - 2:33these many years later,
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2:33 - 2:35I had lots of good ideas.
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2:35 - 2:37But guess what they wanted.
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2:37 - 2:39[8 Ways the World Could End Tomorrow]
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2:39 - 2:42And that's why we're here.
Dr. Doom and Gloom. -
2:42 - 2:45So let's begin the 2013 countdown.
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2:45 - 2:47[#8 - A pandemic is coming]
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2:47 - 2:50Okay, you're looking at N1H1.
-
2:50 - 2:54It's the original flu virus
that caused the last great pandemic, -
2:54 - 2:59the Spanish flu of 1918,
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3:00 - 3:03which infected 50%
of the world's population at the time, -
3:03 - 3:05which was a billion people,
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3:05 - 3:08and probably killed
one out of every 10 people. -
3:08 - 3:09[~100 million deaths]
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3:09 - 3:13But here's the interesting thing about it,
it came in three waves, -
3:13 - 3:17three different waves
pretty much about six months apart. -
3:18 - 3:23And the second wave killed
every single person who got the flu. -
3:23 - 3:26And that is how bad flu can be.
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3:27 - 3:28Now, here we are in 2013,
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3:28 - 3:34and in barnyards all over China
there are ducks and pigs and chickens -
3:34 - 3:35in close proximity.
-
3:35 - 3:39And that's actually
where influenza originates. -
3:39 - 3:42Now, viruses have gotten
so good at mutating, -
3:42 - 3:43and in these barnyards mostly,
-
3:43 - 3:46that you and I have to get
a flu shot every year -
3:46 - 3:47to protect against this.
-
3:47 - 3:49Although I will tell you
something interesting. -
3:49 - 3:52Less than half of the population
of the United States -
3:52 - 3:54does get a flu shot every year.
-
3:54 - 3:59But that is not what keeps the Centers
for Disease Control up at night. -
3:59 - 4:03What they worry about
is something called a recombinant flu bug. -
4:03 - 4:04And here's how it works.
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4:04 - 4:06There are two kinds of viruses.
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4:06 - 4:09There are viruses that infect animals,
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4:09 - 4:12and animals pass them
easily to other animals. -
4:12 - 4:14And then there are viruses
that infect humans, -
4:14 - 4:16and they pass them easily to other humans.
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4:16 - 4:20When a human has something
like the Hong Kong flu, -
4:20 - 4:24or in 2009 that H1N1 that came back,
-
4:24 - 4:26and they go to the market
and they buy a chicken -
4:26 - 4:31that happens to have
one of these animal viruses, -
4:32 - 4:35and they take it home
and they don't cook it properly, -
4:35 - 4:38and they eat it,
they get the animal virus. -
4:38 - 4:41And now inside that person
are two kinds of viruses: -
4:41 - 4:44a virus that transmits easily
from human to human -
4:44 - 4:47and a virus that transmits easily
from animal to animal. -
4:47 - 4:49But in almost all cases,
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4:49 - 4:54that animal virus is far more toxic
and far more of a killer. -
4:57 - 4:59Now, in just the last few weeks,
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4:59 - 5:06a new very deadly animal flu
called H7N9 has popped up. -
5:06 - 5:07About 100 people are infected.
-
5:07 - 5:09A lot of them have died.
-
5:09 - 5:13And this is one that the CDC
is really worried about, -
5:13 - 5:17and we could be looking
at another worldwide pandemic -
5:17 - 5:19like the Spanish flu
-
5:19 - 5:23if a human being
who has a human-type virus, -
5:23 - 5:24that transmits easily to people,
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5:24 - 5:28happens to eat one of these animals.
-
5:28 - 5:30Now, there are solutions to this,
-
5:30 - 5:33but we live in a very
different world from 1918. -
5:33 - 5:36There are 80,000 commercial jets
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5:36 - 5:39that take off every day
full of passengers. -
5:39 - 5:44It would take a flu virus
about two weeks to circle the globe. -
5:44 - 5:49Private producers cannot make
enough vaccine fast enough to save us. -
5:49 - 5:51The only thing that we can do
-
5:51 - 5:53is what the Australian
government has done, -
5:53 - 5:55which is to create laboratories
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5:55 - 5:57that are ready to go on a moment's notice
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5:57 - 6:00to create vast quantities
of flu [vaccine]. -
6:00 - 6:02We should do this.
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6:02 - 6:05Second, we need to make
a simple dip stick test. -
6:05 - 6:07You go to the drug store, you buy a swab,
-
6:07 - 6:09you put it in your mouth.
-
6:09 - 6:10If it turns blue, you have the flu.
-
6:10 - 6:12How many times
have you gone to the doctor: -
6:12 - 6:15"Do I have the flu?
Do I have a bacterial infection?" -
6:15 - 6:16Half the time they don't even know.
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6:17 - 6:21When a pandemic comes,
you want to know if you have the flu, -
6:21 - 6:23and you will not be able to find a doctor.
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6:24 - 6:27Thirdly, we need to invest
in a really good public health system. -
6:27 - 6:30We've actually been firing
about 50,000 public health workers -
6:30 - 6:32in the last three years.
-
6:33 - 6:36You know, 40-50 years ago,
-
6:36 - 6:39this country built
thousands of bomb shelters -
6:39 - 6:41because we thought nuclear war
was a real threat. -
6:41 - 6:44If we can do that,
we can build a public health system -
6:44 - 6:47that will take care of us in a pandemic.
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6:49 - 6:50Number seven.
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6:50 - 6:52(Applause)
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6:52 - 6:53Isn't that beautiful?
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6:53 - 6:56That's a mass coronal ejection
coming off the sun. -
6:56 - 7:00It makes something called a solar flare
look like kindergarten. -
7:00 - 7:01[#7 - The sun brightens]
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7:01 - 7:05It shoots uncountable numbers of atoms
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7:05 - 7:08that have been broken apart
into little particles -
7:08 - 7:11and radiation out into space.
-
7:12 - 7:14Almost all of these blasts
miss the Earth -
7:14 - 7:18because the sun is like
this huge yellow beach ball in space, -
7:18 - 7:22and we're like this little tiny BB
at the end of the auditorium. -
7:22 - 7:24So no matter which direction
the sun sends these out, -
7:24 - 7:28it's very unusual
for us to get a direct hit. -
7:28 - 7:32However, happened last August,
and it happened a month ago. -
7:32 - 7:36And you would not have been wanting
to have been in an airplane at that time. -
7:37 - 7:42In 1859, a coronal mass ejection
took the brand new US telegraph system -
7:42 - 7:44and basically melted it.
-
7:44 - 7:47It started fires.
It shocked the operators. -
7:47 - 7:49And the wires disppeared.
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7:49 - 7:52Most of the time our magnetic field
in our atmosphere -
7:52 - 7:55protects us from coronal mass ejections.
-
7:55 - 7:57But a severe direct hit
-
7:57 - 8:01would take out the entire
world's power grid at once, -
8:02 - 8:05and all the satellites in orbit,
-
8:05 - 8:10plunging us essentially
into a 19th-century existence. -
8:11 - 8:15It would take 20 years
to restore half the grid -
8:15 - 8:17because we do not have back-up.
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8:17 - 8:20Try to imagine life without electricity.
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8:20 - 8:24Almost all cities
would become uninhabitable. -
8:25 - 8:28We build sky scrapers
80 stories high and up -
8:28 - 8:30and two stories underground.
-
8:31 - 8:33We need to create safety zones
beneath our buildings. -
8:33 - 8:37We should be building down eight stories
for every 80 stories up, -
8:37 - 8:39and we should make that
part of our building code. -
8:39 - 8:44The state of New Jersey
is rebuilding 20,000 bridges in the state -
8:44 - 8:47because they know there will be
a massive earthquake on the East coast -
8:47 - 8:49sooner or later.
-
8:49 - 8:54If we can do that, we can have different
building codes for our buildings. -
8:54 - 9:00We should also view transformers and wires
as vulnerable and expendable, -
9:00 - 9:03and we should have hardened,
underground power plants -
9:03 - 9:06ready to go in an emergency.
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9:07 - 9:09[#6 - We develop a new life form]
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9:09 - 9:13This is a synthetic genome
invented by the Craig Venter Institute -
9:13 - 9:17and inserted into a bacterial cell
-
9:17 - 9:19to create what I would call
a new life form. -
9:20 - 9:25This life form never existed before,
and it can reproduce. -
9:28 - 9:30It was done three years ago,
-
9:30 - 9:32and the goal is noble.
-
9:32 - 9:36It's to produce
anything we want from a cell. -
9:37 - 9:40Takes in certain things,
puts out stuff that we want. -
9:40 - 9:44For example, they could make
synthetic vaccines. -
9:44 - 9:47Or they could turn carbon dioxide
into usable fuels. -
9:48 - 9:50Now, what could be wrong with that?
-
9:51 - 9:56Our history is littered with examples
of bad things that got out of secure labs -
9:56 - 10:00and things that go amok
when we try to tamper with Mother Nature. -
10:00 - 10:02And here's a low tech example.
-
10:02 - 10:07We brought kudzu here from Japan
to control soil erosion. -
10:07 - 10:09Didn't work out so well.
-
10:10 - 10:13And meanwhile, labs around the world
are experimenting with biotech -
10:13 - 10:15in ways you cannot imagine.
-
10:15 - 10:19You can create a perfect
in vitro male baby -
10:19 - 10:21with blond hair and blue eyes,
-
10:21 - 10:25and you can make modified corn
do anything you want. -
10:26 - 10:31Now, is genetically modified corn
saving us from famines? -
10:31 - 10:37I see it as a threat to the only
purely wild corn genome left in the world -
10:37 - 10:39that grows in Mexico.
-
10:42 - 10:45Look at number one here:
watch closer, regulate more. -
10:45 - 10:47Watch closer, regulate more.
-
10:48 - 10:53No single federal agency or a single law
governs this vast new world. -
10:53 - 10:55Instead, there's
a hodge podge of regulations -
10:55 - 10:57from the Food and Drug Administration,
-
10:57 - 10:59the United States
Department of Agriculture -
10:59 - 11:01and the EPA.
-
11:01 - 11:04We need a new single agency
of the government -
11:04 - 11:06to bring order to this.
-
11:07 - 11:11Meanwhile, less watched people
are entering this field all the time, -
11:11 - 11:14and amateurs will follow.
-
11:14 - 11:20Kickstarter just got its first proposal
for a synthetic life form: -
11:20 - 11:23a plant that would glow at night
-
11:23 - 11:26so we can sprinkle
its seeds along roadsides -
11:26 - 11:28and eliminate street lights.
-
11:29 - 11:32Remember, genetically modified crops
-
11:32 - 11:38are not driven by a need
to produce a better world -
11:38 - 11:40and to save people from starvation,
-
11:40 - 11:42they are driven by money.
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11:42 - 11:45And synthetic biology is about money too.
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11:47 - 11:49Now, for a little humor.
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11:49 - 11:51[#5 - Robots take over]
-
11:51 - 11:54I'm going to tell you this.
You're not going to believe it. -
11:54 - 11:57Computers will be smarter
than us in 20 years. -
11:58 - 11:59You know this stuff.
-
11:59 - 12:02You know that Deep Blue can play chess
-
12:02 - 12:04better than anyone
on the face of the planet, -
12:04 - 12:06and you know that the Google car
-
12:06 - 12:09can drive itself
better than you can drive it. -
12:09 - 12:10[Solutions]
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12:10 - 12:12It's hasta la vista time.
-
12:12 - 12:15Time to wake up and smell the silicon.
-
12:15 - 12:20If you want to get ahead of this curve,
you are going to have to become a cyborg. -
12:20 - 12:22(Laughter)
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12:22 - 12:25Number four: A lot of volcanoes go off.
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12:25 - 12:28These things are huge trouble.
-
12:29 - 12:32We do not live on a nice,
stable solid planet. -
12:32 - 12:34It is mostly molten rock and iron
-
12:34 - 12:39and it probably has a nuclear reactor
in the center of it that keeps it hot. -
12:39 - 12:41We're, like, on these life rafts
-
12:41 - 12:44floating over all this molten rock.
-
12:45 - 12:48Earth's crust is so constantly
folding in on itself -
12:48 - 12:51that we cannot find a stone
on the surface of the Earth -
12:51 - 12:54that is as old as the planet.
-
12:56 - 12:59Ninety-eight percent of all the species
on Earth have gone extinct. -
13:00 - 13:02And volcanoes are the biggest reason why.
-
13:03 - 13:07Of the 11 biggest extinctions,
four were caused by volcanoes. -
13:07 - 13:11A new study that links
the late Traissic extinction -
13:11 - 13:13of volcanic eruptions and outflows -
-
13:14 - 13:18or a new study links
this amazing extinction of life, -
13:18 - 13:2095 percent of life on Earth -
-
13:20 - 13:24to volcanoes that essentially stretched -
and it all went off at the same time - -
13:24 - 13:27essentially stretched
from what is now New Jersey -
13:27 - 13:28to what is now Morocco.
-
13:31 - 13:34In our past, Earth
has opened up many times -
13:34 - 13:36and flowed out for centuries.
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13:36 - 13:40India is an outflow of volcanism.
-
13:40 - 13:43Volcanic activity fills the sky
with soot and hot ash -
13:43 - 13:45and buries every living thing
-
13:45 - 13:48and blocks the sun for so many summers,
-
13:48 - 13:52the plants on land
and plankton in the sea die, -
13:52 - 13:55and when they die, we die.
-
13:55 - 13:59Volcanoes can also produce
so much carbon dioxide -
13:59 - 14:04that they will massively warm the planet
and create a runaway greenhouse effect, -
14:04 - 14:07which is the opposite
of what we often expect from them. -
14:08 - 14:14In Holland, they grow most of their food
in greenhouses with synthetic light -
14:14 - 14:1524 hours a day.
-
14:15 - 14:17We can do that.
-
14:18 - 14:22When I was putting this talk together,
I just had this weird idea. -
14:22 - 14:26I went to Amazon, I looked to see how much
they were and how good they are. -
14:26 - 14:29Gas masks are the cheapest
insurance you can buy. -
14:29 - 14:31They don't take up much space,
-
14:31 - 14:34and they get you through
a lot of hard times. -
14:34 - 14:39And finally, the ultimate solution
to living on a planet like ours, -
14:39 - 14:42which really is unstable
and will not last forever - -
14:42 - 14:46in four and a half billion years,
the sun will take us in - -
14:46 - 14:51our species will eventually die
if we do not colonize other planets -
14:52 - 14:54in other solar systems.
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14:54 - 14:58Number three: a runaway greenhouse effect,
I just spoke about that a little, -
14:58 - 15:00or an ecosystem collapse.
-
15:01 - 15:03Okay, no surprise, we're heating up.
-
15:03 - 15:09In 1990, the mean atmospheric temperature
of Earth was 14 1/2 degrees centigrade. -
15:09 - 15:13In 23 years, we've gone up
3/4 of a degree. -
15:13 - 15:17Never in the history of this planet -
we know from ice cores - -
15:17 - 15:19has carbon dioxide risen so fast.
-
15:19 - 15:23When we get to 16 1/2 degrees -
that's 1 1/4 degrees from where we are - -
15:23 - 15:26we will lose control of our climate.
-
15:26 - 15:28Or let me put it a different way:
-
15:28 - 15:31It will become extremely unpredictable.
-
15:31 - 15:33Every major extinction in Earth's history
-
15:33 - 15:37has been characterized
by rapid increases in CO2. -
15:37 - 15:42And we're now in an unprecedented period
of increases in CO2. -
15:42 - 15:44Normally the atmosphere releases
-
15:44 - 15:47about 10 percent of the heat
we get from the sun. -
15:47 - 15:50But as we heat up,
more and more water turns to vapor, -
15:50 - 15:53more global warming methane
and other gases -
15:53 - 15:56are released from the northern
and southern permafrost, -
15:56 - 15:59and at some point
the Earth works like a greenhouse - -
15:59 - 16:00gets into a feedback loop
-
16:00 - 16:03that eventually will turn us into Venus,
-
16:03 - 16:07where the average daytime temperature
is 900 degrees Fahrenheit. -
16:08 - 16:11At the same time we're witnessing
a huge extinction cycle. -
16:11 - 16:13In the next 25 years,
-
16:13 - 16:18we will lose 25 percent of all the species
in the Hawaiian islands alone. -
16:18 - 16:20We're devastating our oceans
by overfishing them, -
16:20 - 16:24and we're killing
our coral reefs with heat. -
16:24 - 16:29Somewhere in the Amazon rainforest
is what I like to call a marginal tree. -
16:29 - 16:32We keep cutting down
oxygen-producing trees, -
16:32 - 16:35and someday, when we get
to that marginal tree, -
16:35 - 16:40we will see the beginning of the collapse
of our oxygen ecosystem. -
16:41 - 16:43We are still asleep at the wheel.
-
16:43 - 16:45Global warming is an emergency.
-
16:45 - 16:47It's almost incomprehensible
-
16:47 - 16:51how much CO2 we have to stop
putting in the air in the next 10 years -
16:51 - 16:53to stop this process.
-
16:53 - 16:58And we need to prioritize the animals
and the amount of nature -
16:58 - 17:00that we're trying to save.
-
17:00 - 17:01We can't save it all.
-
17:01 - 17:05We need to save the species
that help us the most. -
17:05 - 17:06[#2 - Nuclear war breaks out]
-
17:06 - 17:07Now, this is interesting
-
17:07 - 17:10because 11 years ago,
this wasn't even on my radar screen, -
17:10 - 17:14because I don't think nuclear war
was any kind of significant threat. -
17:15 - 17:18There's a good reason
every major nation in the world -
17:18 - 17:21wants to keep Iran from getting the bomb.
-
17:21 - 17:24But there's a larger reason
that's really out of our control. -
17:24 - 17:29Both India and Pakistan have
more than 100 nuclear weapons each, -
17:29 - 17:32far more than enough
to create a nuclear winter, -
17:32 - 17:34which will kill us all.
-
17:34 - 17:38They have fought three wars since 1947.
-
17:38 - 17:41And India is developing
a nuclear submarine fleet -
17:41 - 17:45so it can fire its missiles from anywhere.
-
17:47 - 17:49President Obama
has spoken about this idea; -
17:49 - 17:51it makes tremendous sense.
-
17:51 - 17:54And there's a huge rap
against anti-missile systems -
17:54 - 17:58because if we use it and we knock down
everybody else's missiles, -
17:58 - 18:01then we're left
with all the good missiles. -
18:01 - 18:05So part of the answer to this problem
-
18:05 - 18:10may be to develop anti-missle
technology cooperatively -
18:10 - 18:14with many, many other nations
and place them where they are needed. -
18:14 - 18:16You have to fire an anti-missile
-
18:16 - 18:2030 seconds after a missile
with a warhead on it is fired -
18:20 - 18:24so that it catches it before
it's on the downward curve in space. -
18:27 - 18:29Number one: We cross paths
with a really big asteroid. -
18:29 - 18:31This is my favorite.
-
18:32 - 18:33(Laughter)
-
18:33 - 18:36Now, there's a possibility I've been wrong
about some of these things, -
18:36 - 18:39the possibility some of
these things won't happen. -
18:39 - 18:42In the best sense of journalism,
that's my disclaimer. -
18:42 - 18:44But I am not wrong about this,
-
18:44 - 18:46and this is what keeps me up at night.
-
18:46 - 18:48This is my passion.
-
18:48 - 18:51Right now, somewhere in space,
-
18:51 - 18:54maybe in the asteroid belt
between Mars and Jupiter -
18:54 - 18:56or farther out in the Kuiper belt,
-
18:56 - 18:59of large objects
that exist beyond Neptune, -
18:59 - 19:02there's a missile with our name on it.
-
19:02 - 19:07It could break out of its orbit tomorrow,
or not for 100,000 years, -
19:07 - 19:09but its fate is sealed.
-
19:09 - 19:11It will hit Earth.
-
19:11 - 19:13It has happened before many times.
-
19:13 - 19:15Get a telescope and look at the moon.
-
19:15 - 19:17It is covered with asteroid hits.
-
19:17 - 19:20And you'll see that
in a video in a second. -
19:20 - 19:23The Earth is just as pockmarked
with asteroid hits. -
19:23 - 19:26It's just that that folding
crust that we have, -
19:26 - 19:27that's hidden a lot of them,
-
19:27 - 19:30and vegetation has covered a lot of it.
-
19:31 - 19:34A large asteroid took out the dinosaurs
65 million years ago -
19:34 - 19:38by creating shock waves
and firestorms across this planet -
19:38 - 19:40and created a sky so full of debris
-
19:40 - 19:43that summer did not return
for at least 100 years -
19:43 - 19:45and maybe 1,000 years.
-
19:46 - 19:50Had humans been alive then,
they would all have been wiped out. -
19:51 - 19:53Now, here's some hope.
-
19:53 - 19:56433 Eros. This is a huge rock -
-
19:56 - 19:58it's bigger than the one
that took out the dinosaurs - -
19:58 - 20:02that orbits in the asteroid belt
between Mars and Jupiter. -
20:02 - 20:04At sometime in its future
-
20:04 - 20:06it will shift from a Mars-crossing orbit
-
20:06 - 20:07that it's in now
-
20:07 - 20:09to an Earth-crossing orbit.
-
20:09 - 20:13It will intersect
with where our planet is. -
20:13 - 20:17It is bigger than the asteroid
that killed off the dinosaurs. -
20:17 - 20:19But here's where
this thing gets interesing. -
20:19 - 20:23We took this photo from a space probe
that left the Earth in the year 2000, -
20:23 - 20:28a NASA probe, that was designed
to study asteroids. -
20:28 - 20:32And this spaceship settled into orbit
around the asteroid. -
20:32 - 20:38You can put a baseball in orbit
around me if you're in space; -
20:38 - 20:40there's enough gravity.
-
20:40 - 20:43Now, when the mission ended,
there was a little leftover fuel, -
20:43 - 20:45there was a little leftover electricity,
-
20:45 - 20:48and the mission controllers -
this wasn't part of the mission - -
20:48 - 20:51they landed the spacecraft
on Eros successfully. -
20:51 - 20:56And since then, we have
intercepted three comets in deep space -
20:56 - 20:59that move at 20 miles per second.
-
21:01 - 21:04Stop and think about
the implications of those missions. -
21:04 - 21:06For the first time in human history,
-
21:06 - 21:09we have the ability
to fly into an incoming asteroid -
21:09 - 21:11and change its orbit,
-
21:11 - 21:13but only if we know it's there,
-
21:13 - 21:16and only if we have a rocket ready to go.
-
21:16 - 21:23Most asteroids are found by amateurs
when it's too late to do anything. -
21:23 - 21:26NASA is looking for bad guys
in the asteroid belt, -
21:26 - 21:28and there are about
20,000 of them out there. -
21:28 - 21:30But they can't look in the Kuiper belt,
-
21:30 - 21:31it's too far away,
-
21:31 - 21:33and it has 100,000 objects in it
-
21:33 - 21:3810 times bigger than the asteroid
that took out the dinosaurs. -
21:38 - 21:40In only 20 years,
-
21:40 - 21:44we have developed the technology
to change our fate. -
21:44 - 21:49We can intercept an asteroid,
and we can take it out of play. -
21:51 - 21:55One day you or your children,
or their children, -
21:55 - 21:56or their children's children
-
21:56 - 21:59will wake up and this news will be real,
-
21:59 - 22:02the headline on the front page
of The New York TImes: -
22:02 - 22:05Killer Asteroid Found
on Collision Course with Earth. -
22:06 - 22:09What happens after that
if we're not prepared -
22:09 - 22:11is really beyond horror.
-
22:11 - 22:13Most humans will not die from the impact,
-
22:13 - 22:16most will die of starvation.
-
22:16 - 22:19And the price of insurance
to protect us from this -
22:19 - 22:22is what we spend on one B2 bomber.
-
22:23 - 22:27The asteroid problem is stupidly obvious.
-
22:27 - 22:31A physicist said almost 100 years ago:
-
22:31 - 22:33"There are two kinds of civilizations:
-
22:33 - 22:36those who can protect themselves
from an asteroid impact -
22:36 - 22:38and those who can't."
-
22:39 - 22:40We're the former.
-
22:40 - 22:42What are we waiting for?
-
22:42 - 22:43Thank you.
-
22:43 - 22:45(Applause)
- Title:
- 8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest
- Description:
-
Unintentional "dark futurist" Stephen Petranek re-visits the subject matter of his original eleven-year-old TED Talk and offers the audience an extraordinarily sobering look at the eight critical issues that threaten human life on Earth.
This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at http://ted.com/tedx
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
closed TED
- Project:
- TEDxTalks
- Duration:
- 22:52
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Rhonda Jacobs approved English subtitles for 8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest | |
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Peter van de Ven accepted English subtitles for 8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest | |
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Peter van de Ven edited English subtitles for 8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest | |
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Rhonda Jacobs edited English subtitles for 8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest | |
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Rhonda Jacobs edited English subtitles for 8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest | |
![]() |
Rhonda Jacobs edited English subtitles for 8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest | |
![]() |
Rhonda Jacobs edited English subtitles for 8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest | |
![]() |
Rhonda Jacobs edited English subtitles for 8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest |