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8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest

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    So about 11 years ago,
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    I gave a talk in California
    at the TED Conference.
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    And it went really well.
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    It was called "10 ways
    the world could end tomorrow."
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    But it also went viral
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    at a time before
    things started going viral,
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    and it wasn't in a good way.
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    It ended up on thousands
    of nutty websites.
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    These are the kind of websites for people
    who think "Men in Black" is a documentary.
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    (Laughter)
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    It's the kind of websites
    for people who actually believe
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    the Mayan calendar does predict doomsday.
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    So if you'd googled me before this talk,
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    you would have seen
    maybe nine or ten references to me
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    as a science magazine editor.
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    Three weeks after the talk,
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    there were 418 references
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    linking "moi" to little
    green men from Mars.
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    Now, coincidentally,
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    I was teaching my mother
    how to use a computer at the time,
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    (Laughter)
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    long distance,
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    and I was teaching her about Google.
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    So guess who she googled first.
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    (Laughter)
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    So ...
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    (Laughter)
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    ['Steve, are you in trouble?']
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    I started worrying about
    my reputation a little.
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    And I decided to call
    Chris Anderson, the TED curator.
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    I knew Chris would not want TED speakers
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    to be co-opted
    by every nut job on the web,
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    and maybe he could get his friends
    Larry and Serge at Google
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    to erase all this.
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    I was a little disappointed.
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    ['Hmmm, sorry about that']
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    Didn't exactly get the sympathy
    I was looking for.
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    Chris thought it was funny.
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    But he did ask me to do another TED Talk,
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    and I jumped at the chance
    because I saw it as redemption.
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    I could do "10 reasons
    to be optimistic about the future."
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    And I did. It was a great talk.
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    Honestly, my best talk ever.
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    Full of surprises.
    Lots of interesting science.
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    But it didn't go over so well.
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    Everybody wanted another 10 ways
    the world could end suddenly.
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    ['Why didn't you do 10 more ways
    the world could end?
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    And what about global warming?']
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    And no one posted the optimistic talk.
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    So when Mike and Linda asked me
    to give a talk at TEDx
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    these many years later,
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    I had lots of good ideas.
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    But guess what they wanted.
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    [8 Ways the World Could End Tomorrow]
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    And that's why we're here.
    Dr. Doom and Gloom.
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    So let's begin the 2013 countdown.
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    [#8 - A pandemic is coming]
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    Okay, you're looking at N1H1.
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    It's the original flu virus
    that caused the last great pandemic,
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    the Spanish flu of 1918,
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    which infected 50%
    of the world's population at the time,
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    which was a billion people,
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    and probably killed
    one out of every 10 people.
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    [~100 million deaths]
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    But here's the interesting thing about it,
    it came in three waves,
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    three different waves
    pretty much about six months apart.
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    And the second wave killed
    every single person who got the flu.
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    And that is how bad flu can be.
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    Now, here we are in 2013,
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    and in barnyards all over China
    there are ducks and pigs and chickens
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    in close proximity.
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    And that's actually
    where influenza originates.
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    Now, viruses have gotten
    so good at mutating,
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    and in these barnyards mostly,
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    that you and I have to get
    a flu shot every year
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    to protect against this.
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    Although I will tell you
    something interesting.
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    Less than half of the population
    of the United States
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    does get a flu shot every year.
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    But that is not what keeps the Centers
    for Disease Control up at night.
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    What they worry about
    is something called a recombinant flu bug.
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    And here's how it works.
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    There are two kinds of viruses.
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    There are viruses that infect animals,
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    and animals pass them
    easily to other animals.
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    And then there are viruses
    that infect humans,
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    and they pass them easily to other humans.
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    When a human has something
    like the Hong Kong flu,
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    or in 2009 that H1N1 that came back,
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    and they go to the market
    and they buy a chicken
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    that happens to have
    one of these animal viruses,
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    and they take it home
    and they don't cook it properly,
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    and they eat it,
    they get the animal virus.
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    And now inside that person
    are two kinds of viruses:
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    a virus that transmits easily
    from human to human
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    and a virus that transmits easily
    from animal to animal.
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    But in almost all cases,
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    that animal virus is far more toxic
    and far more of a killer.
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    Now, in just the last few weeks,
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    a new very deadly animal flu
    called H7N9 has popped up.
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    About 100 people are infected.
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    A lot of them have died.
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    And this is one that the CDC
    is really worried about,
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    and we could be looking
    at another worldwide pandemic
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    like the Spanish flu
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    if a human being
    who has a human-type virus,
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    that transmits easily to people,
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    happens to eat one of these animals.
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    Now, there are solutions to this,
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    but we live in a very
    different world from 1918.
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    There are 80,000 commercial jets
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    that take off every day
    full of passengers.
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    It would take a flu virus
    about two weeks to circle the globe.
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    Private producers cannot make
    enough vaccine fast enough to save us.
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    The only thing that we can do
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    is what the Australian
    government has done,
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    which is to create laboratories
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    that are ready to go on a moment's notice
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    to create vast quantities
    of flu [vaccine].
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    We should do this.
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    Second, we need to make
    a simple dip stick test.
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    You go to the drug store, you buy a swab,
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    you put it in your mouth.
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    If it turns blue, you have the flu.
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    How many times
    have you gone to the doctor:
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    "Do I have the flu?
    Do I have a bacterial infection?"
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    Half the time they don't even know.
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    When a pandemic comes,
    you want to know if you have the flu,
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    and you will not be able to find a doctor.
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    Thirdly, we need to invest
    in a really good public health system.
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    We've actually been firing
    about 50,000 public health workers
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    in the last three years.
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    You know, 40-50 years ago,
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    this country built
    thousands of bomb shelters
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    because we thought nuclear war
    was a real threat.
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    If we can do that,
    we can build a public health system
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    that will take care of us in a pandemic.
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    Number seven.
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    (Applause)
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    Isn't that beautiful?
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    That's a mass coronal ejection
    coming off the sun.
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    It makes something called a solar flare
    look like kindergarten.
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    [#7 - The sun brightens]
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    It shoots uncountable numbers of atoms
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    that have been broken apart
    into little particles
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    and radiation out into space.
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    Almost all of these blasts
    miss the Earth
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    because the sun is like
    this huge yellow beach ball in space,
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    and we're like this little tiny BB
    at the end of the auditorium.
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    So no matter which direction
    the sun sends these out,
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    it's very unusual
    for us to get a direct hit.
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    However, happened last August,
    and it happened a month ago.
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    And you would not have been wanting
    to have been in an airplane at that time.
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    In 1859, a coronal mass ejection
    took the brand new US telegraph system
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    and basically melted it.
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    It started fires.
    It shocked the operators.
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    And the wires disppeared.
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    Most of the time our magnetic field
    in our atmosphere
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    protects us from coronal mass ejections.
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    But a severe direct hit
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    would take out the entire
    world's power grid at once,
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    and all the satellites in orbit,
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    plunging us essentially
    into a 19th-century existence.
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    It would take 20 years
    to restore half the grid
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    because we do not have back-up.
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    Try to imagine life without electricity.
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    Almost all cities
    would become uninhabitable.
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    We build sky scrapers
    80 stories high and up
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    and two stories underground.
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    We need to create safety zones
    beneath our buildings.
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    We should be building down eight stories
    for every 80 stories up,
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    and we should make that
    part of our building code.
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    The state of New Jersey
    is rebuilding 20,000 bridges in the state
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    because they know there will be
    a massive earthquake on the East coast
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    sooner or later.
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    If we can do that, we can have different
    building codes for our buildings.
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    We should also view transformers and wires
    as vulnerable and expendable,
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    and we should have hardened,
    underground power plants
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    ready to go in an emergency.
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    [#6 - We develop a new life form]
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    This is a synthetic genome
    invented by the Craig Venter Institute
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    and inserted into a bacterial cell
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    to create what I would call
    a new life form.
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    This life form never existed before,
    and it can reproduce.
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    It was done three years ago,
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    and the goal is noble.
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    It's to produce
    anything we want from a cell.
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    Takes in certain things,
    puts out stuff that we want.
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    For example, they could make
    synthetic vaccines.
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    Or they could turn carbon dioxide
    into usable fuels.
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    Now, what could be wrong with that?
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    Our history is littered with examples
    of bad things that got out of secure labs
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    and things that go amok
    when we try to tamper with Mother Nature.
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    And here's a low tech example.
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    We brought kudzu here from Japan
    to control soil erosion.
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    Didn't work out so well.
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    And meanwhile, labs around the world
    are experimenting with biotech
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    in ways you cannot imagine.
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    You can create a perfect
    in vitro male baby
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    with blond hair and blue eyes,
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    and you can make modified corn
    do anything you want.
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    Now, is genetically modified corn
    saving us from famines?
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    I see it as a threat to the only
    purely wild corn genome left in the world
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    that grows in Mexico.
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    Look at number one here:
    watch closer, regulate more.
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    Watch closer, regulate more.
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    No single federal agency or a single law
    governs this vast new world.
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    Instead, there's
    a hodge podge of regulations
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    from the Food and Drug Administration,
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    the United States
    Department of Agriculture
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    and the EPA.
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    We need a new single agency
    of the government
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    to bring order to this.
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    Meanwhile, less watched people
    are entering this field all the time,
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    and amateurs will follow.
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    Kickstarter just got its first proposal
    for a synthetic life form:
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    a plant that would glow at night
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    so we can sprinkle
    its seeds along roadsides
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    and eliminate street lights.
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    Remember, genetically modified crops
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    are not driven by a need
    to produce a better world
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    and to save people from starvation,
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    they are driven by money.
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    And synthetic biology is about money too.
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    Now, for a little humor.
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    [#5 - Robots take over]
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    I'm going to tell you this.
    You're not going to believe it.
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    Computers will be smarter
    than us in 20 years.
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    You know this stuff.
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    You know that Deep Blue can play chess
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    better than anyone
    on the face of the planet,
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    and you know that the Google car
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    can drive itself
    better than you can drive it.
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    [Solutions]
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    It's hasta la vista time.
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    Time to wake up and smell the silicon.
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    If you want to get ahead of this curve,
    you are going to have to become a cyborg.
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    (Laughter)
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    Number four: A lot of volcanoes go off.
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    These things are huge trouble.
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    We do not live on a nice,
    stable solid planet.
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    It is mostly molten rock and iron
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    and it probably has a nuclear reactor
    in the center of it that keeps it hot.
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    We're, like, on these life rafts
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    floating over all this molten rock.
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    Earth's crust is so constantly
    folding in on itself
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    that we cannot find a stone
    on the surface of the Earth
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    that is as old as the planet.
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    Ninety-eight percent of all the species
    on Earth have gone extinct.
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    And volcanoes are the biggest reason why.
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    Of the 11 biggest extinctions,
    four were caused by volcanoes.
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    A new study that links
    the late Traissic extinction
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    of volcanic eruptions and outflows -
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    or a new study links
    this amazing extinction of life,
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    95 percent of life on Earth -
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    to volcanoes that essentially stretched -
    and it all went off at the same time -
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    essentially stretched
    from what is now New Jersey
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    to what is now Morocco.
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    In our past, Earth
    has opened up many times
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    and flowed out for centuries.
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    India is an outflow of volcanism.
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    Volcanic activity fills the sky
    with soot and hot ash
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    and buries every living thing
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    and blocks the sun for so many summers,
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    the plants on land
    and plankton in the sea die,
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    and when they die, we die.
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    Volcanoes can also produce
    so much carbon dioxide
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    that they will massively warm the planet
    and create a runaway greenhouse effect,
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    which is the opposite
    of what we often expect from them.
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    In Holland, they grow most of their food
    in greenhouses with synthetic light
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    24 hours a day.
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    We can do that.
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    When I was putting this talk together,
    I just had this weird idea.
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    I went to Amazon, I looked to see how much
    they were and how good they are.
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    Gas masks are the cheapest
    insurance you can buy.
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    They don't take up much space,
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    and they get you through
    a lot of hard times.
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    And finally, the ultimate solution
    to living on a planet like ours,
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    which really is unstable
    and will not last forever -
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    in four and a half billion years,
    the sun will take us in -
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    our species will eventually die
    if we do not colonize other planets
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    in other solar systems.
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    Number three: a runaway greenhouse effect,
    I just spoke about that a little,
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    or an ecosystem collapse.
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    Okay, no surprise, we're heating up.
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    In 1990, the mean atmospheric temperature
    of Earth was 14 1/2 degrees centigrade.
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    In 23 years, we've gone up
    3/4 of a degree.
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    Never in the history of this planet -
    we know from ice cores -
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    has carbon dioxide risen so fast.
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    When we get to 16 1/2 degrees -
    that's 1 1/4 degrees from where we are -
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    we will lose control of our climate.
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    Or let me put it a different way:
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    It will become extremely unpredictable.
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    Every major extinction in Earth's history
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    has been characterized
    by rapid increases in CO2.
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    And we're now in an unprecedented period
    of increases in CO2.
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    Normally the atmosphere releases
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    about 10 percent of the heat
    we get from the sun.
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    But as we heat up,
    more and more water turns to vapor,
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    more global warming methane
    and other gases
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    are released from the northern
    and southern permafrost,
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    and at some point
    the Earth works like a greenhouse -
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    gets into a feedback loop
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    that eventually will turn us into Venus,
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    where the average daytime temperature
    is 900 degrees Fahrenheit.
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    At the same time we're witnessing
    a huge extinction cycle.
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    In the next 25 years,
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    we will lose 25 percent of all the species
    in the Hawaiian islands alone.
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    We're devastating our oceans
    by overfishing them,
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    and we're killing
    our coral reefs with heat.
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    Somewhere in the Amazon rainforest
    is what I like to call a marginal tree.
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    We keep cutting down
    oxygen-producing trees,
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    and someday, when we get
    to that marginal tree,
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    we will see the beginning of the collapse
    of our oxygen ecosystem.
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    We are still asleep at the wheel.
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    Global warming is an emergency.
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    It's almost incomprehensible
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    how much CO2 we have to stop
    putting in the air in the next 10 years
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    to stop this process.
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    And we need to prioritize the animals
    and the amount of nature
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    that we're trying to save.
  • 17:00 - 17:01
    We can't save it all.
  • 17:01 - 17:05
    We need to save the species
    that help us the most.
  • 17:05 - 17:06
    [#2 - Nuclear war breaks out]
  • 17:06 - 17:07
    Now, this is interesting
  • 17:07 - 17:10
    because 11 years ago,
    this wasn't even on my radar screen,
  • 17:10 - 17:14
    because I don't think nuclear war
    was any kind of significant threat.
  • 17:15 - 17:18
    There's a good reason
    every major nation in the world
  • 17:18 - 17:21
    wants to keep Iran from getting the bomb.
  • 17:21 - 17:24
    But there's a larger reason
    that's really out of our control.
  • 17:24 - 17:29
    Both India and Pakistan have
    more than 100 nuclear weapons each,
  • 17:29 - 17:32
    far more than enough
    to create a nuclear winter,
  • 17:32 - 17:34
    which will kill us all.
  • 17:34 - 17:38
    They have fought three wars since 1947.
  • 17:38 - 17:41
    And India is developing
    a nuclear submarine fleet
  • 17:41 - 17:45
    so it can fire its missiles from anywhere.
  • 17:47 - 17:49
    President Obama
    has spoken about this idea;
  • 17:49 - 17:51
    it makes tremendous sense.
  • 17:51 - 17:54
    And there's a huge rap
    against anti-missile systems
  • 17:54 - 17:58
    because if we use it and we knock down
    everybody else's missiles,
  • 17:58 - 18:01
    then we're left
    with all the good missiles.
  • 18:01 - 18:05
    So part of the answer to this problem
  • 18:05 - 18:10
    may be to develop anti-missle
    technology cooperatively
  • 18:10 - 18:14
    with many, many other nations
    and place them where they are needed.
  • 18:14 - 18:16
    You have to fire an anti-missile
  • 18:16 - 18:20
    30 seconds after a missile
    with a warhead on it is fired
  • 18:20 - 18:24
    so that it catches it before
    it's on the downward curve in space.
  • 18:27 - 18:29
    Number one: We cross paths
    with a really big asteroid.
  • 18:29 - 18:31
    This is my favorite.
  • 18:32 - 18:33
    (Laughter)
  • 18:33 - 18:36
    Now, there's a possibility I've been wrong
    about some of these things,
  • 18:36 - 18:39
    the possibility some of
    these things won't happen.
  • 18:39 - 18:42
    In the best sense of journalism,
    that's my disclaimer.
  • 18:42 - 18:44
    But I am not wrong about this,
  • 18:44 - 18:46
    and this is what keeps me up at night.
  • 18:46 - 18:48
    This is my passion.
  • 18:48 - 18:51
    Right now, somewhere in space,
  • 18:51 - 18:54
    maybe in the asteroid belt
    between Mars and Jupiter
  • 18:54 - 18:56
    or farther out in the Kuiper belt,
  • 18:56 - 18:59
    of large objects
    that exist beyond Neptune,
  • 18:59 - 19:02
    there's a missile with our name on it.
  • 19:02 - 19:07
    It could break out of its orbit tomorrow,
    or not for 100,000 years,
  • 19:07 - 19:09
    but its fate is sealed.
  • 19:09 - 19:11
    It will hit Earth.
  • 19:11 - 19:13
    It has happened before many times.
  • 19:13 - 19:15
    Get a telescope and look at the moon.
  • 19:15 - 19:17
    It is covered with asteroid hits.
  • 19:17 - 19:20
    And you'll see that
    in a video in a second.
  • 19:20 - 19:23
    The Earth is just as pockmarked
    with asteroid hits.
  • 19:23 - 19:26
    It's just that that folding
    crust that we have,
  • 19:26 - 19:27
    that's hidden a lot of them,
  • 19:27 - 19:30
    and vegetation has covered a lot of it.
  • 19:31 - 19:34
    A large asteroid took out the dinosaurs
    65 million years ago
  • 19:34 - 19:38
    by creating shock waves
    and firestorms across this planet
  • 19:38 - 19:40
    and created a sky so full of debris
  • 19:40 - 19:43
    that summer did not return
    for at least 100 years
  • 19:43 - 19:45
    and maybe 1,000 years.
  • 19:46 - 19:50
    Had humans been alive then,
    they would all have been wiped out.
  • 19:51 - 19:53
    Now, here's some hope.
  • 19:53 - 19:56
    433 Eros. This is a huge rock -
  • 19:56 - 19:58
    it's bigger than the one
    that took out the dinosaurs -
  • 19:58 - 20:02
    that orbits in the asteroid belt
    between Mars and Jupiter.
  • 20:02 - 20:04
    At sometime in its future
  • 20:04 - 20:06
    it will shift from a Mars-crossing orbit
  • 20:06 - 20:07
    that it's in now
  • 20:07 - 20:09
    to an Earth-crossing orbit.
  • 20:09 - 20:13
    It will intersect
    with where our planet is.
  • 20:13 - 20:17
    It is bigger than the asteroid
    that killed off the dinosaurs.
  • 20:17 - 20:19
    But here's where
    this thing gets interesing.
  • 20:19 - 20:23
    We took this photo from a space probe
    that left the Earth in the year 2000,
  • 20:23 - 20:28
    a NASA probe, that was designed
    to study asteroids.
  • 20:28 - 20:32
    And this spaceship settled into orbit
    around the asteroid.
  • 20:32 - 20:38
    You can put a baseball in orbit
    around me if you're in space;
  • 20:38 - 20:40
    there's enough gravity.
  • 20:40 - 20:43
    Now, when the mission ended,
    there was a little leftover fuel,
  • 20:43 - 20:45
    there was a little leftover electricity,
  • 20:45 - 20:48
    and the mission controllers -
    this wasn't part of the mission -
  • 20:48 - 20:51
    they landed the spacecraft
    on Eros successfully.
  • 20:51 - 20:56
    And since then, we have
    intercepted three comets in deep space
  • 20:56 - 20:59
    that move at 20 miles per second.
  • 21:01 - 21:04
    Stop and think about
    the implications of those missions.
  • 21:04 - 21:06
    For the first time in human history,
  • 21:06 - 21:09
    we have the ability
    to fly into an incoming asteroid
  • 21:09 - 21:11
    and change its orbit,
  • 21:11 - 21:13
    but only if we know it's there,
  • 21:13 - 21:16
    and only if we have a rocket ready to go.
  • 21:16 - 21:23
    Most asteroids are found by amateurs
    when it's too late to do anything.
  • 21:23 - 21:26
    NASA is looking for bad guys
    in the asteroid belt,
  • 21:26 - 21:28
    and there are about
    20,000 of them out there.
  • 21:28 - 21:30
    But they can't look in the Kuiper belt,
  • 21:30 - 21:31
    it's too far away,
  • 21:31 - 21:33
    and it has 100,000 objects in it
  • 21:33 - 21:38
    10 times bigger than the asteroid
    that took out the dinosaurs.
  • 21:38 - 21:40
    In only 20 years,
  • 21:40 - 21:44
    we have developed the technology
    to change our fate.
  • 21:44 - 21:49
    We can intercept an asteroid,
    and we can take it out of play.
  • 21:51 - 21:55
    One day you or your children,
    or their children,
  • 21:55 - 21:56
    or their children's children
  • 21:56 - 21:59
    will wake up and this news will be real,
  • 21:59 - 22:02
    the headline on the front page
    of The New York TImes:
  • 22:02 - 22:05
    Killer Asteroid Found
    on Collision Course with Earth.
  • 22:06 - 22:09
    What happens after that
    if we're not prepared
  • 22:09 - 22:11
    is really beyond horror.
  • 22:11 - 22:13
    Most humans will not die from the impact,
  • 22:13 - 22:16
    most will die of starvation.
  • 22:16 - 22:19
    And the price of insurance
    to protect us from this
  • 22:19 - 22:22
    is what we spend on one B2 bomber.
  • 22:23 - 22:27
    The asteroid problem is stupidly obvious.
  • 22:27 - 22:31
    A physicist said almost 100 years ago:
  • 22:31 - 22:33
    "There are two kinds of civilizations:
  • 22:33 - 22:36
    those who can protect themselves
    from an asteroid impact
  • 22:36 - 22:38
    and those who can't."
  • 22:39 - 22:40
    We're the former.
  • 22:40 - 22:42
    What are we waiting for?
  • 22:42 - 22:43
    Thank you.
  • 22:43 - 22:45
    (Applause)
Title:
8 ways the world could suddenly end | Stephen Petranek | TEDxMidwest
Description:

Unintentional "dark futurist" Stephen Petranek re-visits the subject matter of his original eleven-year-old TED Talk and offers the audience an extraordinarily sobering look at the eight critical issues that threaten human life on Earth.

This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at http://ted.com/tedx

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Video Language:
English
Team:
closed TED
Project:
TEDxTalks
Duration:
22:52

English subtitles

Revisions