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The Rise of Digital People: Mustafa Suleyman and Ian Bremmer on the Future of AI

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    ♪ [music] ♪
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    - [Ian] In the past year,
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    artificial intelligence
    has captured our imagination
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    like never before
    and like nothing else.
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    It's transformed everything
    from how we work,
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    to how we perceive
    the world around us,
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    to increasingly
    who we are as people.
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    And with this technological
    renaissance,
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    there are very few names
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    that stand out as prominently
    as Mustafa Suleyman.
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    He has a career
    that's deeply rooted in AI.
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    He's been at the forefront
    of this field
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    for well over a decade,
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    co-founding DeepMind
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    and playing a critical role
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    in its mission
    to solve intelligence
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    and to use it to make
    the world a better place.
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    And today,
    we're sitting down with Mustafa
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    to discuss
    both the exciting potential of AI,
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    as well as concerns
    about the future of AI.
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    Mustafa, thank you for joining us.
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    Mustafa, you've been working
    on artificial intelligence
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    for, you know,
    like almost 20 years now, right?
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    So what's happened
    that has made this
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    such an omnipresent thing
    in all of our lives?
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    - [Mustafa] Well,
    for much of that time,
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    like you said,
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    I've been among a small group
    of very fringe AI researchers
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    who mostly been considered
    to be a little bit crazy.
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    Back in 2010,
    when I first started DeepMind,
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    most people who heard
    that I was working on AI
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    thought that I was really
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    nothing to do
    with mainstream culture,
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    a weirdo futurist,
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    and working on something
    that was very speculative.
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    So for as long as I can remember,
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    we've been an outsider
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    and in the last sort of few years,
    I would say,
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    it's kinda grown
    in the popular imagination.
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    I think a lot of that started
    several years back with AlphaGo,
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    which was an AI that we designed
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    to play the ancient Chinese
    board game of Go,
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    which is played
    on a 19 x 19 square grid.
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    - It's a lot more complicated
    than chess, absolutely.
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    - Yeah. It was kind
    of the next big frontier for AI
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    after IBM beat the game of chess
    with Deep Blue back in 1997,
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    and obviously, as everyone knows,
    that's on an 8 x 8 grid,
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    and the pieces can only move
    in very fixed ways,
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    whereas on a 19 x 19 grid,
    not only is it that much larger,
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    but all the pieces are equal,
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    there's just black
    and white stones,
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    and you can place them
    anywhere on the grid.
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    So the number of possible moves
    that can happen in the board game
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    are just exponentially larger,
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    something like 10^170 possible
    configurations of the board.
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    That is more atoms than there are
    in the known universe.
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    So it's a 10 with 170 zeros
    next to it, after it.
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    It's just an incredibly insane
    possible number of configurations.
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    So all the traditional methods
    of rule-based search,
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    where you would say, "If there are
    some pieces in this area,
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    then don't place them there,
    but place them adjacent,"
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    which is traditionally how people
    trained AIs to play chess.
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    Those methods didn't work
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    because the size of the space
    was just so huge.
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    So we had to invent
    these learning methods,
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    and over the years,
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    we've applied
    those learning methods
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    to other domains.
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    We started off with games,
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    then moved into image recognition,
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    then moved into audio transcription
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    so you can sort of write down
    the words that I say phonetically.
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    And then, in the last couple years,
    you know,
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    coming back to your question
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    of why things have gone crazy
    in the last year or so,
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    is because we've actually been able
    to apply a similar suite of methods
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    - deep learning -
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    to generate
    new text that is unique, right?
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    And that's the incredible thing
    that has happened here.
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    We've gone from classification -
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    so understanding
    the content of images,
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    understanding that two languages
    translate in the following way,
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    understanding the content
    of a piece of text or a paragraph -
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    to then being able to generate
    a new example of that paragraph,
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    or a new image,
    or some new speech or music
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    at human-level performance.
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    A lot of these AIs now are
    pretty much as good as most humans
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    at being creative
    or, you know, answering questions.
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    - So nowadays,
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    we can have a conversation
    with an AI bot,
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    and, I mean,
    we can't really tell the difference
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    between it and another human being.
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    That a fair point, right?
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    - Yeah. I mean, that is
    one of the surreal moments
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    that we live in, right?
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    When you talk to one of these AIs,
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    like ChatGPT,
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    or my own company, Inflection,
    for example, makes an AI called Pi,
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    p-i, which stands
    for personal intelligence.
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    When you talk to Pi, I mean,
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    it's just like chatting
    to a regular human.
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    You can actually phone Pi,
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    and it will speak to you
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    in a very fluent, smooth,
    conversational voice.
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    It has empathy.
    It has emotional intelligence,
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    And yeah, in many respects,
    it's just like talking to a human,
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    and so many people would say
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    that we have nearly passed
    the famous Turing test,
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    which was proposed, you know,
    back in the 1950s
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    by this great computer scientist
    and mathematician
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    called Alan Turing,
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    who said that if you could,
    you know, design a computer
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    to speak to another human,
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    and it would be impossible to tell
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    whether it was actually a computer
    or a human speaking,
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    then we could say that that AI
    or that computer system
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    was intelligent
    and it had passed the Turing test.
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    And now, we're pretty much
    at that moment.
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    I think, you know,
    it's still possible to tell
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    if you really pay attention
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    or if the conversation
    goes on long enough.
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    But if it's only just, you know, two
    or three or five turns of conversation,
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    it's very difficult to tell.
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    And that's an amazing moment.
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    - It's not that the AI
    is intelligent.
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    It's just that we perceive it
    to be intelligent.
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    In reality,
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    it's just taking all of this data
    and pattern recognition,
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    and it's predicting things
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    on the basis of the prompt
    that we write in, right?
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    I mean, it's a program
    at the end of the day.
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    It's not thinking.
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    - Well, it's interesting,
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    because with every new technology,
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    we're forced to reconsider
    our basic assumptions.
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    So we thought we had a good grasp
    of what intelligence is
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    because it was compared
    to passing the Turing test.
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    Whereas now we've passed
    the Turing test,
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    people are like,
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    "Well, maybe it's not
    that intelligent after all," right?
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    So maybe it wasn't
    a very good test.
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    And that is the process of science,
    is that we posit a hypothesis,
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    we develop some, you know, experiments
    to test that hypothesis,
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    and then, we review the evidence
    and we generate a new test.
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    And so today,
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    we have to generate a new test,
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    because it's pretty clear
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    that these things
    are not really intelligent,
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    even though they're very capable.
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    So I've proposed a new test,
    a modern Turing test,
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    which actually evaluates
    what an AI can do,
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    not just what it can say.
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    So I think
    a better measure of an AI
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    is an artificial
    capable intelligence,
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    an ACI.
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    So what what can this thing do
    in the labor market?
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    What jobs can it do?
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    Can it write emails?
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    Can it negotiate contracts?
    Can it invent new products?
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    Can it, you know,
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    market and promote a product
    and persuade people to buy it?
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    And if it can do
    all of those things,
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    and, you know, do it in a way
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    that enables it to make
    a profit on a product,
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    that's kinda like
    a mini entrepreneur.
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    It's like a little startup person.
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    And I think that over the next
    sort of three or four years,
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    there will be AIs that can do
    all those things I've described
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    and actually turn a real profit
    from a new product.
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    And that'll be a watershed moment,
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    because that's many of the skills
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    that a lot of people use
    in their day to day jobs.
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    - So I want to get to the future,
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    but let's start with the present
    just for a moment.
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    I mean, for young people today
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    that are hearing
    about artificial intelligence,
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    as so many of us are,
    for the first time,
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    if they're curious,
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    what should they be doing
    with artificial intelligence?
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    How should a person start engaging
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    in a way that will be constructive
    and useful for their future?
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    - Well, the first thing to say
    is that these AIs
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    have all of the knowledge
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    that has been put
    on the open internet.
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    So they're actually
    extremely smart.
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    Not only have they been trained
    on Wikipedia many, many times over,
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    but they've read
    millions of blog posts,
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    millions of news articles,
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    many books in many cases
    that are available on the open web,
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    and so they're very knowledgeable.
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    So the first thing to do
    is just talk to one.
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    Pick a topic
    that you are really interested in,
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    maybe one that you know
    something about,
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    and try to test the limits
    of the AI's knowledge
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    by probing it, and questioning it,
    and going back and forth.
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    I'm sure many people
    have already tried them out.
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    And I think, you know
    give Pi a go.
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    It's really
    an incredible experience.
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    And once you play around with it
    a little bit,
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    you realize, A, the magic
    and how impressive it is,
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    but B, where it kind of trips up.
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    Sometimes it goes in circles.
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    Sometimes it doesn't remember
    things correctly.
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    And that gives you an intuition
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    for where the cutting edge
    is today,
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    where it's weak,
    and where it's strong.
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    And then I would say,
    if you're really interested,
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    is try and prompt one of these AIs.
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    Try and give it a stylistic guide.
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    You know, try and get it to,
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    you know, talk in the style
    of, you know, President Obama,
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    or, you know, one of your favorite
    celebrities, or Shakespeare.
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    You know,
    and invent something with it,
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    you know, treat it as an aid,
    a creative brainstorming partner,
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    and then you can see again
    what the shape of it is.
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    And if you want to go even further,
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    you know, many of these models
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    are available
    in open source software,
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    and you can have a go
    at trying to program one of them.
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    - And what's something
    that you could program
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    an AI today to do
    that would be interesting?
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    I mean, you could program it,
    for example,
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    to be a, you know, expert
    in Formula One racing
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    and talk to you
    in the style of Shakespeare,
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    if you like.
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    You know, it can embody
    the character and persona
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    of anything that you can imagine,
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    and take advantage
    of the depth of knowledge
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    that it has been trained on.
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    So it might be an expert
    in talking about cactuses.
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    It might know everything
    about Harley Davidsons.
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    It might know all
    about the dinosaurs.
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    Anything that you can think of,
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    it is going to be able to imitate
    that knowledge
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    in a particular style.
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    And so, the world is your oyster.
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    You can create game characters.
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    You can create,
    you know, little aides,
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    or assistants, or friends,
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    you know, to play with
    or to talk to,
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    fiction
    that you can co-write together,
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    you know,
    you write part of the story,
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    the AI writes
    the other part of the story.
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    So, you know, it's really limitless
    what can be done with these things.
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    - And you and I are great optimists
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    on how much AI is doing
    and where this technology is going.
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    But we're also very well aware
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    that with all
    of these opportunities
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    to program AI
    to do incredible things,
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    if you want to program it
    to do bad things,
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    you probably can.
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    And I mean, you can use it
    to learn and promote information,
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    but you can use it
    to promote disinformation,
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    and to fake people,
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    and to get people
    to believe things that aren't true.
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    What do we need to do
    to limit the potential
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    for AI to be used in ways
    that are dangerous for our society?
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    - Well, one of the things is that,
    at the moment,
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    many of the AI services
    are available
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    through large,
    established providers,
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    and those providers
    have all committed
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    to responsible
    and ethical principles.
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    And it's incumbent on all of us
    to hold those providers to account
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    based on what they've said,
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    so, about not spreading
    misinformation,
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    not spreading
    factually untrue content,
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    and you know, crucially,
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    I think, not imitating
    a known public figure, right?
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    Because what we don't want
    is to have a bunch of AIs
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    that, you know,
    where in the future,
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    it will be impossible
    to tell whether, you know,
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    a celebrity, or a politician,
    or a business person,
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    you know, had in fact given
    a message, or said something,
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    made a recording,
    issued a statement,
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    but in fact,
    it was actually a deep fake,
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    it was a made-up piece of content.
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    And at the moment,
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    most of the big providers
    of these AIs are very responsible
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    and take lots of efforts
    to prevent those kinds of things.
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    I think, in the future,
    these models are going to be
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    increasingly available
    in open source,
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    and so,
    that's going to get harder to,
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    you know, sort of contain
    and to moderate.
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    - And when you say in open source,
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    you mean, like,
    you're not going to just get it
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    from Meta, or Google,
    or Microsoft, or Inflection,
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    that you could get it
    just like on the open web.
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    And then the rules are
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    whatever the rules happen to be
    for that provider.
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    - Yeah. And I think
    that's going to become
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    more and more a challenge
    of the open Internet,
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    is, you know, where are
    the boundaries of that,
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    and how does it get restricted?
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    Because, you know,
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    you're going to be able
    to take this software
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    and run your own AI
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    independent of any big provider
    in five years time, right?
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    I mean, today you can run them,
    you know, in the open source,
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    and they're pretty good,
    but in the future,
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    they're going to be
    really, really good.
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    So we just have to think
    about the right way to make sure
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    that we have stable
    and peaceful outcomes
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    and that the transition
    to this new AI future
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    doesn't happen too quickly,
    and isn't too chaotic,
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    because as we've seen in the past,
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    sometimes there can be
    unintended consequences.
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    Now we aren't yet at the point that
    we would use an AI to be our lawyer.
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    We might use it to help our lawyer,
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    but we wouldn't use it to be it or
    to be our teacher or to be our nurse.
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    But it sounds like in in
    very short periods of time,
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    you believe that AI is going to be able
    to replace a lot of these functions.
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    Take us a little bit along
    that path. Not all the way yet,
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    but just like the next year or two.
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    Because I mean, we keep seeing
    all of these new announcements
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    and,
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    you know, you said, well, AI can generate
    text and it can sound like a human being.
  • 14:38 - 14:40
    Yeah. But you can have
    a conversation with it.
  • 14:40 - 14:43
    Well, now we see AI can generate images
  • 14:43 - 14:47
    and there are images that are more
    impressive than almost any artist
  • 14:47 - 14:50
    or graphic design. Then now we see
    just recently AI can generate video
  • 14:51 - 14:55
    and and can generate a movie that, I
    mean, you know, you would see in Hollywood
  • 14:55 - 14:57
    maybe or really close.
  • 14:57 - 14:59
    What what's coming next? What
  • 14:59 - 15:02
    do we see in the next year or
    two that's gonna blow our minds
  • 15:02 - 15:04
    that we're gonna start using everywhere?
  • 15:05 - 15:09
    I think that the reality is that
    over the next two to three years,
  • 15:09 - 15:14
    we are going to be surrounded by
    a new species of digital people.
  • 15:15 - 15:20
    And you know we have wrestled with
    different metaphors for describing
  • 15:20 - 15:21
    this new technology era
  • 15:22 - 15:27
    for many decades and none of them seem
    to be sufficient or up to the task.
  • 15:27 - 15:32
    You know, some people have compared AI
    to another general purpose technology
  • 15:32 - 15:33
    like electricity.
  • 15:33 - 15:36
    General purpose because
    it's like a raw commodity
  • 15:37 - 15:41
    that enables many many other
    technologies and products and services
  • 15:41 - 15:46
    to be built on top of it. I mean, who could
    think of living in a model world today
  • 15:46 - 15:49
    without electricity? You
    know, going back even further,
  • 15:50 - 15:54
    the printing press was an earlier general
    purpose technology because it it enabled
  • 15:54 - 15:57
    anybody to broadcast their
    ideas and organize and plan
  • 15:58 - 16:02
    and so on. So many meta capabilities
    arose because of the that platform.
  • 16:03 - 16:04
    Or the Internet.
  • 16:04 - 16:04
    Same thing.
  • 16:04 - 16:08
    Or indeed the Internet. That's another good
    example of a general purpose technology.
  • 16:08 - 16:13
    But today, it's hard to say that
    AI is a general purpose technology.
  • 16:13 - 16:16
    I mean, it certainly is,
    but that's not all it is.
  • 16:16 - 16:17
    It is interactive.
  • 16:18 - 16:23
    It produces new and
    dynamically emergent content
  • 16:23 - 16:28
    in a personalized way uniquely
    to you at every moment.
  • 16:29 - 16:30
    That is very different
  • 16:30 - 16:36
    to the very predictable nature of
    electricity, for example. Right?
  • 16:36 - 16:41
    The actual infrastructure of the
    Internet was very stable and predictable.
  • 16:41 - 16:45
    We know exactly how many
    packets can be sent across
  • 16:45 - 16:48
    a certain wire of a certain
    speed at a certain time.
  • 16:48 - 16:52
    Whereas here, this is like a
    completely new design material.
  • 16:52 - 16:58
    Right? That that no two answers to the
    same question will be the same. Right?
  • 16:58 - 17:01
    Every interaction is very different. And
    now that these interactions are becoming
  • 17:02 - 17:04
    completely dynamic. Right?
  • 17:04 - 17:06
    What you know, you say something, the
    AI says something, you say something,
  • 17:06 - 17:10
    It's actually much more like
    talking to a full digital person.
  • 17:11 - 17:15
    So in two or three years' time, there
    will be an avatar that will be a human
  • 17:15 - 17:20
    like or other kind of character
    representation that is very animated
  • 17:20 - 17:23
    and just like you or I
    speaking to one another now.
  • 17:24 - 17:28
    As you say, it will be able to generate
    video in real time completely seamlessly
  • 17:29 - 17:33
    on your phone, on your desktop,
    on your tablet, in your car.
  • 17:33 - 17:33
    Right?
  • 17:34 - 17:36
    And so rather than browsing
  • 17:36 - 17:39
    a web page, right, today when
    you go to look for information,
  • 17:40 - 17:41
    you type a query into Google,
  • 17:41 - 17:43
    and you get a static web page
  • 17:43 - 17:47
    that was probably made two years ago or
    maybe even some cases five years ago.
  • 17:47 - 17:49
    And that's like a a billboard.
  • 17:49 - 17:53
    Right? It's a static
    representation that doesn't change.
  • 17:54 - 17:58
    And it doesn't it certainly doesn't
    change to adapt to you or me.
  • 17:58 - 18:02
    Right? It's just we both see the same
    thing. You type in a website. You goes you
  • 18:02 - 18:04
    we we both see exactly the
    same thing regardless of
  • 18:04 - 18:08
    the time of day or the location or back
    history or what we're interested in.
  • 18:09 - 18:09
    In the future,
  • 18:11 - 18:15
    content is gonna be served to every
    individual in a completely personalized
  • 18:16 - 18:19
    and interactive way. So
    your web page of images
  • 18:19 - 18:25
    and text and video is gonna
    unfurl itself on the fly,
  • 18:26 - 18:27
    completely novel,
  • 18:28 - 18:32
    adapted to your interests and what
    you've talked about previously
  • 18:32 - 18:36
    with your AI. And that's just
    a completely different paradigm
  • 18:36 - 18:40
    that I think, you know, we we, you know,
    people are sort of not quite yet grasping.
  • 18:40 - 18:44
    Mustafa, when you say digital
    people, what do you mean by that?
  • 18:44 - 18:48
    Well, if you think about it,
    what makes a person a person is
  • 18:48 - 18:50
    my ability to speak to you right now,
  • 18:51 - 18:55
    my ability to see what you see,
    and my ability to take actions.
  • 18:56 - 19:01
    So you know buy things, book things,
    plan, arrange, coordinate, write emails,
  • 19:01 - 19:02
    make phone calls.
  • 19:02 - 19:04
    At some point in the next few years,
  • 19:04 - 19:09
    an AI is going to be able to do all of
    those things pretty much as well as a human.
  • 19:09 - 19:13
    But of course, it won't be a
    human. It will be a digital person
  • 19:13 - 19:15
    and I think that's
    probably the best metaphor
  • 19:15 - 19:18
    to help us understand what's
    coming over the next few years.
  • 19:19 - 19:20
    What does it mean
  • 19:21 - 19:26
    as we move into an environment
    where so many of the interactions
  • 19:27 - 19:33
    that we will have will be with digital
    people as opposed to people people.
  • 19:34 - 19:37
    How how do you think
    that changes the economy?
  • 19:38 - 19:41
    How does it change society?
    How does it change government?
  • 19:41 - 19:47
    What what what are some of your thoughts
    about that? Well, one of the amazing things
  • 19:48 - 19:53
    about these digital people is that they
    can actually be made to be very controlled,
  • 19:53 - 19:56
    right? You can actually
    design very precise behaviors
  • 19:57 - 20:00
    and so for example in the
    AI that we've made, Pai,
  • 20:01 - 20:03
    it is very kind and empathetic,
  • 20:04 - 20:08
    it's very supportive, it's very
    encouraging, it's infinitely patient,
  • 20:09 - 20:11
    it doesn't judge you, right.
  • 20:11 - 20:13
    And so many of the downsides
    of human interaction,
  • 20:14 - 20:16
    where you might feel socially anxious,
  • 20:17 - 20:19
    you might feel a bit paranoid about
    what the other person's thinking,
  • 20:19 - 20:20
    you might feel pushed around,
  • 20:21 - 20:24
    right? Or you might feel that that
    other person didn't didn't hear you out.
  • 20:24 - 20:27
    You know, you were telling a
    story about your ski trip and
  • 20:27 - 20:30
    suddenly they're talking about their ski
    trip that they had last year and you're
  • 20:30 - 20:32
    like wait but I haven't
    finished my thought.
  • 20:32 - 20:37
    And your AI doesn't do that to you. Your
    AI is infinitely patient and supportive
  • 20:37 - 20:43
    and so there's a huge amount of upside
    there but it's also a big transition.
  • 20:43 - 20:44
    Right? Because I think increasingly
  • 20:45 - 20:47
    people will choose to
    spend time with their AI's,
  • 20:48 - 20:51
    perhaps more than they spend
    time with other humans.
  • 20:51 - 20:53
    And so one of the design considerations
  • 20:54 - 20:58
    that we have to factor in and we
    think about a lot at inflection is
  • 20:58 - 20:59
    to really pay attention
  • 21:00 - 21:05
    to the values of the AI and how
    we condition and shape the AI.
  • 21:05 - 21:09
    For example, to encourage you to
    spend more time with your loved ones,
  • 21:09 - 21:13
    to encourage you to be brave and overcome
    your social anxiety and go to the party,
  • 21:14 - 21:18
    to provide you with a safe space to
    practice for your interview or your exam,
  • 21:18 - 21:22
    but still have you focused on being
    out in the real world connected,
  • 21:23 - 21:25
    having experiences with other humans
  • 21:25 - 21:27
    and so every single discipline
  • 21:27 - 21:32
    every single area of society is gonna
    have to grapple with this new reality
  • 21:32 - 21:36
    that there will in fact be digital
    people that are as you know significant
  • 21:36 - 21:37
    and as important
  • 21:38 - 21:40
    as, you know, every other, you know,
  • 21:40 - 21:43
    sort of relationship in our lives.
    I mean, it would be impossible
  • 21:43 - 21:47
    to consider today not having
    a smartphone in your life,
  • 21:47 - 21:49
    right? Or a laptop.
  • 21:49 - 21:53
    That that's just become second
    nature in in less than a a decade.
  • 21:53 - 21:58
    Yes. You know, six billion people
    have a smartphone now or more. Right?
  • 21:58 - 22:02
    And so that's probably the trajectory
    we're on for these personal intelligences.
  • 22:02 - 22:06
    I mean, this is the natural evolution
    of technology from personal computing
  • 22:07 - 22:12
    to personal intelligence. And I I think
    people will be relieved to hear you say
  • 22:12 - 22:18
    that you find it important that
    the values of these AI people
  • 22:18 - 22:21
    that you are developing,
    that you're inventing,
  • 22:22 - 22:26
    needs to be humane and needs to keep
    people engaging with other people.
  • 22:27 - 22:27
    Of course,
  • 22:28 - 22:32
    you and I can both imagine that there
    are going to be lots of corporations
  • 22:33 - 22:38
    that want to maximize
    profitability and therefore ensure
  • 22:38 - 22:42
    that people are engaging with their
    AI as much as humanly possible,
  • 22:43 - 22:47
    just as some companies do with their
    smartphones or their applications.
  • 22:48 - 22:54
    Just as sometimes you wanna sell
    as much food as you possibly can
  • 22:54 - 22:58
    to a person. So even if it means that
    they're obese, all of these things.
  • 22:59 - 23:02
    And I wonder, I mean, do you think that
  • 23:02 - 23:07
    how do we guard against the excesses
    that comes from a technology
  • 23:08 - 23:10
    that is changing so much faster
  • 23:10 - 23:16
    than our ability to understand it,
    train with it, prepare for it? I mean,
  • 23:16 - 23:18
    you know, we're going to be mostly
  • 23:18 - 23:19
    the people we are right now,
  • 23:19 - 23:22
    and these things are suddenly
    just gonna be poof around us.
  • 23:22 - 23:26
    Right? It's not like we can
    train people to, like, okay.
  • 23:26 - 23:30
    This is, like, you've gotta grow into
    becoming an adult, and here's what it is.
  • 23:30 - 23:32
    You know, it's it's just gonna be there.
  • 23:33 - 23:38
    Well, look, I I think that, you know,
    we are making incredible progress
  • 23:38 - 23:40
    as a civilization including
  • 23:41 - 23:43
    on the corporation front. Right?
  • 23:43 - 23:47
    And society is changing much faster
    than I think people fully realize.
  • 23:47 - 23:49
    If you roll back to
  • 23:49 - 23:52
    the 50s and the kinds of companies
    that we had and the kind of
  • 23:52 - 23:56
    you know way that they would
    externalize their downsides
  • 23:56 - 23:59
    whether it was dumping chemicals
    into the into the river,
  • 24:00 - 24:04
    you know, or you know, really
    mistreating their staff in horrible ways.
  • 24:04 - 24:08
    You know, I think that it's inconceivable
    that we would have companies
  • 24:08 - 24:10
    that are really pushing smoking
  • 24:11 - 24:15
    in the way that they did back in the
    day or really pushing, you know, obesity
  • 24:15 - 24:19
    and fatty foods. Like, we're
    we're really, I think, making a
  • 24:19 - 24:22
    a a march forward and look,
    it's not a solved problem.
  • 24:22 - 24:23
    You know, fundamentally,
  • 24:24 - 24:28
    companies are constantly in a
    battle to try to be more responsible
  • 24:28 - 24:32
    and to be more considerate and
    respectful of their of their people.
  • 24:32 - 24:34
    All I can say is that
    for my part at Inflexion,
  • 24:35 - 24:37
    we've tried to structure the company
  • 24:37 - 24:41
    in a way that we proactively
    think about those consequences
  • 24:41 - 24:45
    and we're actually registered legally
    as a public benefit corporation.
  • 24:45 - 24:46
    Oh, okay. So
  • 24:46 - 24:52
    but now let's go maybe five years in the
    future, not ten, not twenty, just five,
  • 24:52 - 24:57
    where we are already starting
    to see AI that is able to do
  • 24:58 - 25:02
    a lot of the jobs that people that
  • 25:02 - 25:07
    that people have today, that young people
    are thinking about having in the future.
  • 25:08 - 25:12
    How should how should someone considering
  • 25:12 - 25:21
    their career adapt to a future of AI
    that is so explosive, so transformative,
  • 25:21 - 25:23
    and so near term,
  • 25:23 - 25:24
    so much uncertainty
  • 25:24 - 25:30
    about what society will look like more than
    ever in the history of of human beings?
  • 25:31 - 25:34
    How do how do young people think
    differently about preparing
  • 25:34 - 25:35
    themselves for the future?
  • 25:36 - 25:39
    Well, the cool thing about it is
    that more so than ever before,
  • 25:40 - 25:44
    these technologies are
    accessible and programmable
  • 25:44 - 25:47
    by people who don't have technical skills.
  • 25:48 - 25:54
    So you don't have to be a professional
    engineer to be able to play with an AI model.
  • 25:54 - 25:58
    You can prompt it using your own
    language with your own own ideas
  • 25:59 - 26:01
    and that means that you can
    bring all your creativity
  • 26:02 - 26:04
    and you know, all of your inventiveness
  • 26:05 - 26:08
    to an off the shelf AI
    model very very easily.
  • 26:08 - 26:12
    So, that's the first thing I would
    say is, you know, don't be afraid
  • 26:12 - 26:16
    because people think that there's a
    big technical barrier to get over.
  • 26:16 - 26:18
    That's not true anymore. Secondly,
  • 26:19 - 26:23
    there's clearly a huge benefit
    to people who come from outside
  • 26:23 - 26:25
    of software engineering
  • 26:25 - 26:30
    and technical fields actually playing
    with these things. So we need more,
  • 26:31 - 26:33
    you know, wide ranging voices,
    people with different backgrounds,
  • 26:34 - 26:34
    you know,
  • 26:34 - 26:38
    grabbing hold of this stuff and making new
    things with it because all perspectives
  • 26:38 - 26:40
    are needed at this time.
  • 26:40 - 26:44
    This is a massive transition just like
    the arrival of the internet or the arrival
  • 26:44 - 26:45
    of of light.
  • 26:45 - 26:48
    I mean can you imagine what it
    was like for the people who first
  • 26:48 - 26:53
    saw a light bulb turn on and saw the power
    of electricity. That sparked a revolution
  • 26:53 - 26:57
    in people inventing things in
    microelectronics and you know
  • 26:57 - 27:00
    in myriad ways to make our
    lives more comfortable.
  • 27:00 - 27:04
    So think of this as a creative
    and exciting moment to
  • 27:04 - 27:07
    you know be an inventor and
    to to use these tools to
  • 27:08 - 27:11
    you know basically make our dreams
    come true. This is a great moment.
  • 27:12 - 27:15
    Well, let me ask, all of
    these transformations,
  • 27:16 - 27:21
    also create disruptions. Some of those
    disruptions are super opportunities.
  • 27:21 - 27:26
    Some of them are more challenging. If
    you're not ready, give us a couple of jobs
  • 27:27 - 27:29
    that you think people shouldn't actually
  • 27:29 - 27:33
    want to get into in the next five or ten
    years because they're not gonna be around
  • 27:34 - 27:40
    with AI and why? Well, you know, any
    new technology disrupts certain jobs.
  • 27:40 - 27:46
    Right? So, it's pretty clear that
    call center operators, for example,
  • 27:46 - 27:49
    who manage customer service requests
  • 27:50 - 27:53
    or even you know who do sales for example.
  • 27:53 - 27:57
    You know there are going to be AIs
    that try to do that more efficiently
  • 27:57 - 28:00
    and we're already seeing those kinds
    of things so that I'd be worried about
  • 28:00 - 28:01
    those kinds of jobs.
  • 28:02 - 28:07
    I think that the most valuable skill
    sets are going to be those that straddle
  • 28:08 - 28:12
    creative skills as well as
    problem solving and technical.
  • 28:12 - 28:15
    You know so breadth is
    more important than ever.
  • 28:16 - 28:19
    That's one of the things that
    AI's don't do so well is integrate
  • 28:19 - 28:23
    a wide range of different skills
    you know, into a single source.
  • 28:23 - 28:26
    So, I would say be bold
    and do multidisciplinary,
  • 28:28 - 28:32
    you know, educational courses
    that teach you the best of both.
  • 28:32 - 28:33
    So Mustafa,
  • 28:33 - 28:39
    this is a technology that will improve
    human capabilities to anyone that has them.
  • 28:39 - 28:43
    It'll lead to faster inventions,
  • 28:44 - 28:47
    reduced waste, more
    efficiency in every field.
  • 28:48 - 28:51
    As you say, it's more than just
    a transformative technology.
  • 28:51 - 28:55
    It also changes how we think about
    the entire world and society.
  • 28:56 - 28:57
    I'm wondering
  • 28:57 - 28:59
    for young people today
  • 28:59 - 29:05
    who who might think about having fifty,
    sixty, seventy more years on the planet.
  • 29:07 - 29:11
    Do, how do you think about their
    future? Will they even be recognizable
  • 29:12 - 29:16
    as human beings when they're adults?
    Will they have, do you think they'll have
  • 29:17 - 29:18
    limitless lifespan?
  • 29:18 - 29:23
    I mean, in terms of when I think about
    applying artificial intelligence to medicine
  • 29:23 - 29:25
    and to biotechnology and genetics,
  • 29:26 - 29:29
    I mean, it it really does seem staggering
  • 29:30 - 29:34
    how much the world could change
    from what we can even imagine today.
  • 29:34 - 29:36
    I mean, I think that's true.
  • 29:36 - 29:43
    Technology and the scientific process of
    invention is there to reduce our suffering.
  • 29:43 - 29:48
    It's there to make our lives
    more peaceful and more enjoyable,
  • 29:49 - 29:52
    right? You know so just
    a few hundred years ago
  • 29:52 - 29:56
    the average life expectancy was
    closer to fifty years old, right?
  • 29:56 - 30:00
    So we have science has massively advanced
  • 30:00 - 30:05
    our well-being and health because we've
    invented drugs and we've found ways to
  • 30:05 - 30:10
    you know get more crops for example
    out of the same square hectare,
  • 30:10 - 30:14
    right? I think that is an incredible
    achievement of creativity and invention
  • 30:15 - 30:20
    and we're about to take that engine of
    creativity which was our human intelligence
  • 30:21 - 30:24
    and turn that into a, you know, commodity.
  • 30:24 - 30:28
    We're gonna make it widely
    available to millions of people
  • 30:28 - 30:32
    to be able to be creative and inventive.
    So I think you're totally right.
  • 30:32 - 30:36
    By twenty fifty, I wouldn't be surprised
    if there were people who were being born
  • 30:37 - 30:39
    that might live for two
    to three hundred years.
  • 30:39 - 30:43
    As we are going to make very
    fundamental breakthroughs
  • 30:43 - 30:47
    in medical science that tackle
    aging, right, that cure disease.
  • 30:48 - 30:52
    And so that raises the question
    well what do we do with our lives?
  • 30:52 - 30:53
    Like how do we live?
  • 30:53 - 30:58
    What what if if if a large
    chunk of people are not working
  • 30:58 - 31:03
    for their income for most of the day,
    then how do we find meaning and purpose?
  • 31:04 - 31:07
    And people often ask me this
    question and I actually think, well,
  • 31:07 - 31:10
    remember when you were
    young and you know, you had
  • 31:10 - 31:15
    hobbies and passions and ambitions and
    desires and you are obsessed with things.
  • 31:15 - 31:16
    That creativity
  • 31:16 - 31:22
    and playfulness is increasingly
    going to be available to adults
  • 31:22 - 31:26
    and people of all ages because
    I think in the long term future,
  • 31:27 - 31:31
    the real challenge for us is figuring out
    how we support people when they don't work
  • 31:31 - 31:34
    and maybe give them a
    universal basic income
  • 31:34 - 31:38
    so that for at least a portion of
    their week they're freed up from
  • 31:39 - 31:40
    the everyday grind
  • 31:40 - 31:44
    of work to take care of their
    families, to look after the elderly,
  • 31:45 - 31:49
    to be more involved in bringing
    up children, to support We work
  • 31:50 - 31:55
    so that we can play,
  • 31:56 - 31:57
    right?
  • 31:57 - 32:03
    And so We work so that we can play,
  • 32:03 - 32:08
    right? And so the goal is to reduce the
    amount of work that we are forced to do
  • 32:08 - 32:13
    and increase the amount of time that
    we have for play and for chosen work.
  • 32:14 - 32:17
    You may choose to still work
    super hard. That could be a choice
  • 32:17 - 32:20
    and it could be very productive,
    could be very creative and inventive
  • 32:21 - 32:25
    but I think that's a much better society
    that we wanna live in where most people,
  • 32:25 - 32:26
    most of the time,
  • 32:26 - 32:27
    are choosing
  • 32:27 - 32:31
    how to spend most of their week.
    Yeah. And it feels like the pandemic
  • 32:32 - 32:36
    has in some ways helped us
    think about that transition.
  • 32:36 - 32:36
    Right?
  • 32:36 - 32:41
    You already have people who say, you
    know what? I don't wanna be in the office
  • 32:41 - 32:45
    from nine to five every day with
    a one hour commute both ways.
  • 32:45 - 32:48
    I actually want to spend
    more time with my family,
  • 32:49 - 32:51
    spend more time with my friends,
  • 32:51 - 32:55
    with my pets, engage more, live
    in a place that I'm happy living.
  • 32:55 - 32:58
    It turns out that the
    pandemic and the technology
  • 32:58 - 33:03
    that came from, you know, sort of distance
    engagement, Zoom calls, all the rest,
  • 33:03 - 33:06
    technology facilitated more independence
  • 33:06 - 33:07
    of choice
  • 33:08 - 33:12
    for people all over the world to live
    the way they want to live and balance
  • 33:13 - 33:17
    their lives with what
    they do for a living.
  • 33:18 - 33:20
    And artificial intelligence
  • 33:21 - 33:24
    just turbocharges that. Is that is that
    the way you're thinking about this?
  • 33:25 - 33:29
    Yeah. I think that we got a good taster
    of prioritization during the pandemic
  • 33:29 - 33:34
    and in fact that's actually a really
    interesting point because it shows you
  • 33:34 - 33:40
    how you know many unquestioned
    assumptions are actually buried
  • 33:41 - 33:43
    underneath the structure of society.
  • 33:44 - 33:47
    Who would have thought that we
    could actually work entirely
  • 33:47 - 33:49
    remote and be pretty productive, right?
  • 33:50 - 33:53
    And you know, there it's not
    that it was without consequences
  • 33:53 - 33:55
    but the world carried on, right?
  • 33:55 - 33:57
    And there are actually huge
    benefits now to working,
  • 33:58 - 34:02
    you know, part time and not being five days
    in the office. Huge, huge benefits. So,
  • 34:02 - 34:03
    you know, I think that
  • 34:03 - 34:06
    who who would have thought that
    actually that was something that
  • 34:06 - 34:08
    we could re engineer in terms of society
  • 34:08 - 34:11
    so I'm very interested in this
    question like what are the other things
  • 34:11 - 34:13
    that we take for granted today
  • 34:13 - 34:18
    what are the silly rules what are the silly
    social habits and customs and practices
  • 34:18 - 34:21
    and structures that just
    are because they were
  • 34:22 - 34:26
    that we could re engineer and and
    turn upside down and make them more,
  • 34:26 - 34:29
    you know, favorable to every
    single one of us as as individuals.
  • 34:30 - 34:34
    And it turned out we could re engineer
    it immediately because we had to,
  • 34:34 - 34:37
    because the pandemic forced it. It
    didn't take years. It took weeks.
  • 34:37 - 34:41
    It took weeks and people showed they could
    actually work completely differently.
  • 34:41 - 34:44
    You know, I can think of a few
    things that could be re engineered
  • 34:44 - 34:47
    by a society that didn't
    have to work for wealth.
  • 34:48 - 34:49
    You know, gender bias,
  • 34:50 - 34:52
    right? Racism, nationalism.
  • 34:53 - 34:58
    I mean, a world where people can actually
    live the way they want to and not just
  • 34:59 - 35:00
    a few people,
  • 35:00 - 35:02
    but anyone that has access
    to these technologies
  • 35:03 - 35:05
    will be a world where people choose,
  • 35:06 - 35:07
    not to be discriminated
  • 35:07 - 35:08
    against to a much greater degree.
  • 35:08 - 35:14
    Right? Because they don't have to play
    those power games that society forces
  • 35:14 - 35:18
    upon them because that's the way it's
    been done for generations and generations.
  • 35:18 - 35:19
    Yeah. And I I agree.
  • 35:19 - 35:20
    And
  • 35:20 - 35:23
    I think one of the other things that is
    coming down the line that is gonna change
  • 35:23 - 35:25
    that is the ability to generate power,
  • 35:26 - 35:28
    electricity in a decentralized way.
  • 35:29 - 35:31
    If we really do get a battery breakthrough
  • 35:32 - 35:35
    in the next twenty years
    such that renewables,
  • 35:35 - 35:37
    you know, I guess primarily
  • 35:37 - 35:42
    solar but also wind can be generated
    very far away from cities and stored
  • 35:43 - 35:44
    and can carry you through,
  • 35:45 - 35:49
    that's gonna completely change the way
    that cities operate and it's gonna change
  • 35:49 - 35:53
    how much emphasis we put on living
    close to one another or in existing
  • 35:53 - 35:56
    you know you know existing
    cities and and urban areas.
  • 35:57 - 36:00
    So there's there's lots of those
    technological breakthroughs
  • 36:00 - 36:02
    which I think are cooking
    away in the background
  • 36:03 - 36:07
    which will completely change the social
    structure that we are currently so used to.
  • 36:08 - 36:11
    Mustafa Ghiliman. Thanks
    so much for joining.
  • 36:11 - 36:13
    And for our viewers,
  • 36:13 - 36:17
    if you're intrigued by the possibilities
    of AI and you wanna dive deeper into this
  • 36:17 - 36:22
    fascinating world, we invite you to check
    out our other videos in this series.
  • 36:22 - 36:24
    And thank you for watching.
Title:
The Rise of Digital People: Mustafa Suleyman and Ian Bremmer on the Future of AI
ASR Confidence:
1.00
Description:

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Video Language:
English
Team:
Marginal Revolution University
Project:
Other videos
Duration:
36:31

English subtitles

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