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The Rise of Digital People: Mustafa Suleyman and Ian Bremmer on the Future of AI

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    ♪ [music] ♪
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    - [Ian] In the past year,
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    artificial intelligence
    has captured our imagination
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    like never before
    and like nothing else.
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    It's transformed everything
    from how we work,
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    to how we perceive
    the world around us,
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    to increasingly
    who we are as people.
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    And with this technological
    renaissance,
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    there are very few names
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    that stand out as prominently
    as Mustafa Suleyman.
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    He has a career
    that's deeply rooted in AI.
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    He's been at the forefront
    of this field
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    for well over a decade,
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    co-founding DeepMind
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    and playing a critical role
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    in its mission
    to solve intelligence
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    and to use it
    to make the world a better place.
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    And today,
    we're sitting down with Mustafa
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    to discuss
    both the exciting potential of AI,
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    as well as concerns
    about the future of AI.
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    Mustafa, thank you for joining us.
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    Mustafa, you've been working
    on artificial intelligence
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    for almost 20 years now, right?
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    So what's happened
    that has made this
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    such an omnipresent thing
    in all of our lives?
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    - [Mustafa] Well,
    for much of that time,
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    like you said,
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    I've been among a small group
    of very fringe AI researchers
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    who mostly have been considered
    to be a little bit crazy.
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    Back in 2010,
    when I first started DeepMind,
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    most people who heard
    that I was working on AI
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    thought that I was really
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    nothing to do
    with mainstream culture,
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    a weirdo futurist,
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    and working on something
    that was very speculative.
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    So for as long as I can remember,
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    we've been an outsider.
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    And in the last few years,
    I would say,
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    it's grown
    in the popular imagination.
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    I think a lot of that started
    several years back with AlphaGo,
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    which was an AI that we designed
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    to play the ancient Chinese
    board game of Go,
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    which is played
    on a 19 x 19 square grid.
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    - It's a lot more complicated
    than chess, absolutely.
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    - Yeah. It was
    the next big frontier for AI
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    after IBM beat the game of chess
    with Deep Blue back in 1997,
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    and obviously, as everyone knows,
    that's on an 8 x 8 grid,
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    and the pieces can only move
    in very fixed ways,
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    whereas on a 19 x 19 grid,
    not only is it that much larger,
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    but all the pieces are equal.
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    There's just black
    and white stones,
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    and you can place them
    anywhere on the grid.
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    So the number of possible moves
    that can happen in the board game
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    are just exponentially larger,
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    something like 10^170 possible
    configurations of the board.
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    That is more atoms than there are
    in the known universe.
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    So it's a 10 with 170 zeros
    next to it, after it.
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    It's just an incredibly insane
    possible number of configurations.
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    So all the traditional methods
    of rule-based search,
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    where you would say, "If there are
    some pieces in this area,
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    then don't place them there,
    but place them adjacent" --
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    which is traditionally how people
    trained AIs to play chess --
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    those methods didn't work
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    because the size of the space
    was just so huge.
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    So we had to invent
    these learning methods,
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    and over the years,
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    we've applied
    those learning methods
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    to other domains.
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    We started off with games,
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    then moved into image recognition,
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    then moved
    into audio transcription,
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    so you can write down
    the words that I say phonetically.
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    And then,
    in the last couple of years,
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    coming back to your question
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    of why things have gone crazy
    in the last year or so,
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    is because we've actually
    been able to apply
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    a similar suite of methods --
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    deep learning --
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    to generate new text
    that is unique, right?
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    And that's the incredible thing
    that has happened here.
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    We've gone from classification --
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    so understanding
    the content of images,
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    understanding that two languages
    translate in the following way,
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    understanding the content
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    of a piece of text
    or a paragraph --
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    to then being able to generate
    a new example of that paragraph,
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    or a new image,
    or some new speech or music
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    at human-level performance.
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    A lot of these AIs now
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    are pretty much as good
    as most humans
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    at being creative
    or answering questions.
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    - So nowadays,
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    we can have a conversation
    with an AI bot,
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    and we can't really tell
    the difference
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    between it and another human being.
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    That's a fair point, right?
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    - Yeah. That is one
    of the surreal moments
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    that we live in.
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    When you talk to one of these AIs,
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    like ChatGPT,
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    or my own company,
    Inflection, for example,
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    makes an AI called Pi,
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    p-i, which stands for
    "personal intelligence."
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    When you talk to Pi,
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    it's just like chatting
    to a regular human.
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    You can actually phone Pi,
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    and it will speak to you
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    in a very fluent, smooth,
    conversational voice.
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    It has empathy.
    It has emotional intelligence.
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    And yeah, in many respects,
    it's just like talking to a human.
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    And so many people would say
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    that we have nearly passed
    the famous Turing test,
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    which was proposed
    back in the 1950s
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    by this great computer scientist
    and mathematician
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    called Alan Turing,
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    who said that if you could design
    a computer
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    to speak to another human,
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    and it would be impossible to tell
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    whether it was actually a computer
    or a human speaking,
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    then we could say that that AI
    or that computer system
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    was intelligent
    and it had passed the Turing test.
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    And now, we're pretty much
    at that moment, I think.
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    It's still possible to tell,
    if you really pay attention
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    or if the conversation
    goes on long enough.
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    But if it's only just two or three
    or five turns of conversation --
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    it's very difficult to tell.
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    And that's an amazing moment.
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    - It's not that the AI
    is intelligent.
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    It's just that we perceive it
    to be intelligent.
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    In reality,
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    it's just taking all of this data
    and pattern recognition,
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    and it's predicting things
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    on the basis of the prompt
    that we write in, right?
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    It's a program
    at the end of the day.
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    It's not thinking.
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    - Well, it's interesting,
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    because with every new technology,
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    we're forced to reconsider
    our basic assumptions.
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    So we thought we had a good grasp
    of what intelligence is
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    because it was compared
    to passing the Turing test.
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    Whereas now we've passed
    the Turing test,
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    people are like,
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    "Well, maybe it's not
    that intelligent after all," right?
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    So maybe it wasn't
    a very good test.
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    And that is the process of science,
    is that we posit a hypothesis,
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    we develop some experiments
    to test that hypothesis,
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    and then, we review the evidence,
    and we generate a new test.
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    And so today,
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    we have to generate a new test,
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    because it's pretty clear
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    that these things
    are not really intelligent,
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    even though they're very capable.
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    So I've proposed a new test,
    a modern Turing test,
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    which actually evaluates
    what an AI can do,
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    not just what it can say.
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    So I think
    a better measure of an AI
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    is an artificial
    capable intelligence,
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    an ACI.
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    So what can this thing do
    in the labor market?
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    What jobs can it do?
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    Can it write emails?
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    Can it negotiate contracts?
    Can it invent new products?
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    Can it market and promote a product
    and persuade people to buy it?
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    And if it can do
    all of those things
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    and do it in a way
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    that enables it to make
    a profit on a product --
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    that's like a mini entrepreneur.
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    It's like a little startup person.
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    And I think that over the next
    three or four years,
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    there will be AIs that can do
    all those things I've described
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    and actually turn a real profit
    from a new product.
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    And that'll be a watershed moment,
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    because that's many of the skills
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    that a lot of people use
    in their day-to-day jobs.
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    - So I want to get to the future,
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    but let's start with the present
    just for a moment.
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    For young people today
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    that are hearing
    about artificial intelligence,
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    as so many of us are,
    for the first time,
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    if they're curious,
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    what should they be doing
    with artificial intelligence?
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    How should a person start engaging
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    in a way that will be constructive
    and useful for their future?
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    - Well, the first thing to say
    is that these AIs
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    have all of the knowledge
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    that has been put
    on the open internet.
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    So they're actually
    extremely smart.
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    Not only have they been trained
    on Wikipedia many, many times over,
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    but they've read
    millions of blog posts,
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    millions of news articles,
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    many books, in many cases,
    that are available on the open web,
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    and so, they're very knowledgeable.
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    So the first thing to do
    is just talk to one.
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    Pick a topic
    that you are really interested in,
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    maybe one that you know
    something about,
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    and try to test the limits
    of the AI's knowledge
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    by probing it, and questioning it,
    and going back and forth.
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    I'm sure many people
    have already tried them out.
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    And I think, you know,
    give Pi a go.
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    It's really
    an incredible experience.
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    And once you play around with it
    a little bit,
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    you realize A) the magic
    and how impressive it is,
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    but B) where it trips up.
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    Sometimes it goes in circles.
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    Sometimes it doesn't remember
    things correctly.
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    And that gives you an intuition
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    for where the cutting edge
    is today,
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    where it's weak
    and where it's strong.
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    And then, I would say,
    if you're really interested,
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    is try and prompt one of these AIs.
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    Try and give it a stylistic guide.
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    Try and get it to talk
    in the style of President Obama,
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    or one of your favorite
    celebrities, or Shakespeare.
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    And invent something with it,
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    treat it as an aide,
    a creative brainstorming partner,
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    and then you can see, again,
    what the shape of it is.
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    And if you want to go even further,
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    many of these models
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    are available
    in open-source software,
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    and you can have a go
    at trying to program one of them.
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    - And what's something
    that you could program
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    an AI today to do
    that would be interesting?
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    You could program it, for example,
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    to be an expert
    in Formula One racing
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    and talk to you
    in the style of Shakespeare,
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    if you like.
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    It can embody
    the character and persona
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    of anything that you can imagine,
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    and take advantage
    of the depth of knowledge
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    that it has been trained on.
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    So it might be an expert
    in talking about cactuses.
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    It might know everything
    about Harley Davidsons.
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    It might know
    all about the dinosaurs.
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    Anything that you can think of,
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    it is going to be able to imitate
    that knowledge
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    in a particular style.
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    And so, the world is your oyster.
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    You can create game characters.
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    You can create little aides,
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    or assistants, or friends
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    to play with or to talk to,
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    fiction that you can
    co-write together --
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    you write part of the story,
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    the AI writes
    the other part of the story.
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    So, it's really limitless
    what can be done with these things.
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    - You and I are great optimists
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    on how much AI is doing
    and where this technology is going.
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    But we're also very well aware
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    that with all
    of these opportunities
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    to program AI
    to do incredible things,
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    if you want to program it
    to do bad things,
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    you probably can.
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    And you can use it
    to learn and promote information,
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    but you can use it
    to promote disinformation,
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    and to fake people,
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    and to get people
    to believe things that aren't true.
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    What do we need to do
    to limit the potential
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    for AI to be used in ways
    that are dangerous for our society?
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    - Well, one of the things is that,
    at the moment,
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    many of the AI services
    are available
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    through large,
    established providers,
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    and those providers
    have all committed
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    to responsible
    and ethical principles.
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    And it's incumbent on all of us
    to hold those providers to account
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    based on what they've said --
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    so about not spreading
    misinformation,
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    not spreading
    factually untrue content,
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    and crucially, I think,
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    not imitating
    a known public figure.
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    Because what we don't want
    is to have a bunch of AIs
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    where in the future
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    it will be impossible
    to tell whether a celebrity,
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    or a politician,
    or a business person
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    had in fact given a message,
    or said something,
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    made a recording,
    issued a statement,
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    but in fact,
    it was actually a deep fake,
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    it was a made-up piece of content.
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    And at the moment,
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    most of the big providers
    of these AIs are very responsible
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    and take lots of efforts
    to prevent those kinds of things.
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    I think, in the future,
    these models are going to be
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    increasingly available
    in open source,
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    and so that's going to get harder
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    to contain and to moderate.
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    - And when you say in open source,
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    you mean
    you're not going to just get it
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    from Meta, or Google,
    or Microsoft, or Inflection,
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    that you could get it
    just like on the open web.
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    And then the rules are
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    whatever the rules happen to be
    for that provider.
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    - Yeah. And I think
    that's going to become
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    more and more a challenge
    of the open Internet,
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    is, where are
    the boundaries of that,
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    and how does it get restricted?
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    Because you're going to be able
    to take this software
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    and run your own AI
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    independent of any big provider
    in five years' time.
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    Today, you can run them
    in the open source,
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    and they're pretty good,
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    but in the future,
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    they're going to be
    really, really good.
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    So we just have to think
    about the right way to make sure
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    that we have stable
    and peaceful outcomes
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    and that the transition
    to this new AI future
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    doesn't happen too quickly
    and isn't too chaotic,
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    because, as we've seen in the past,
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    sometimes there can be
    unintended consequences.
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    - Now, we aren't yet at the point
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    that we would use an AI
    to be our lawyer.
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    We might use it to help our lawyer,
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    but we wouldn't use it to be it,
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    or to be our teacher,
    or to be our nurse.
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    But it sounds like,
    in very short periods of time,
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    you believe that AI
    is going to be able to replace
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    a lot of these functions.
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    Take us a little bit
    along that path.
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    Not all the way yet,
    but just like the next year or two.
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    Because we keep seeing
    all of these new announcements,
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    and you said,
    "Well, AI can generate text,
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    and it can sound
    like a human being."
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    Yeah. You can have
    a conversation with it.
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    Well, now we see AI
    can generate images,
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    and there are images
    that are more impressive
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    than almost any artist
    or graphic design.
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    Now we see, just recently,
    AI can generate video
  • 14:51 - 14:52
    and can generate a movie
  • 14:52 - 14:56
    that you would see
    in Hollywood, maybe,
  • 14:56 - 14:57
    or really close.
  • 14:57 - 14:59
    What's coming next?
  • 14:59 - 15:00
    What do we see
    in the next year or two
  • 15:00 - 15:02
    that's going to blow our minds
  • 15:02 - 15:04
    that we're going to start
    using everywhere?
  • 15:05 - 15:06
    - I think that the reality is
  • 15:06 - 15:09
    that over the next two
    to three years,
  • 15:09 - 15:14
    we are going to be surrounded
    by a new species of digital people.
  • 15:16 - 15:19
    We have wrestled
    with different metaphors
  • 15:19 - 15:21
    for describing
    this new technology era
  • 15:22 - 15:23
    for many decades,
  • 15:23 - 15:27
    and none of them seem to be
    sufficient or up to the task.
  • 15:28 - 15:29
    Some people have compared AI
  • 15:29 - 15:33
    to another general-purpose
    technology like electricity.
  • 15:33 - 15:36
    General purpose
    because it's like a raw commodity
  • 15:37 - 15:40
    that enables
    many, many other technologies,
  • 15:40 - 15:42
    and products, and services
    to be built on top of it.
  • 15:42 - 15:46
    Who could think of living
    in a modern world today
  • 15:46 - 15:47
    without electricity?
  • 15:48 - 15:49
    Going back even further,
  • 15:50 - 15:53
    the printing press was an earlier
    general-purpose technology
  • 15:53 - 15:54
    because it enabled anybody
  • 15:54 - 15:58
    to broadcast their ideas,
    and organize, and plan, and so on.
  • 15:58 - 16:02
    So many meta capabilities arose
    because of that platform.
  • 16:03 - 16:04
    - Or the Internet. Same thing.
  • 16:04 - 16:05
    - Or indeed the Internet.
  • 16:05 - 16:08
    That's another good example
    of a general-purpose technology.
  • 16:08 - 16:13
    But today, it's hard to say that AI
    is a general-purpose technology.
  • 16:13 - 16:16
    It certainly is,
    but that's not all it is.
  • 16:16 - 16:18
    It is interactive.
  • 16:18 - 16:23
    It produces new
    and dynamically emergent content
  • 16:23 - 16:28
    in a personalized way,
    uniquely to you at every moment.
  • 16:29 - 16:30
    That is very different
  • 16:30 - 16:36
    to the very predictable nature
    of electricity, for example.
  • 16:36 - 16:39
    The actual infrastructure
    of the Internet
  • 16:39 - 16:41
    was very stable and predictable.
  • 16:41 - 16:44
    We know exactly
    how many packets can be sent
  • 16:44 - 16:46
    across a certain wire
    of a certain speed
  • 16:46 - 16:48
    at a certain time.
  • 16:48 - 16:49
    Whereas here,
  • 16:49 - 16:52
    this is like a completely
    new design material.
  • 16:53 - 16:56
    No two answers
    to the same question
  • 16:56 - 16:58
    will be the same.
  • 16:58 - 16:59
    Every interaction
    is very different.
  • 16:59 - 17:01
    And now that these interactions
  • 17:01 - 17:04
    are becoming completely dynamic --
  • 17:04 - 17:05
    you say something,
  • 17:05 - 17:06
    the AI says something,
    you say something --
  • 17:06 - 17:09
    it's actually
    much more like talking
  • 17:09 - 17:10
    to a full digital person.
  • 17:10 - 17:12
    So in two or three years' time,
  • 17:12 - 17:15
    there will be an avatar
    that will be a human-like
  • 17:15 - 17:18
    or other kind
    of character representation
  • 17:18 - 17:20
    that is very animated
  • 17:20 - 17:23
    and just like you or I
    speaking to one another now.
  • 17:24 - 17:27
    As you say, it will be able
    to generate video in real time
  • 17:27 - 17:29
    completely seamlessly
    on your phone,
  • 17:29 - 17:33
    on your desktop,
    on your tablet, in your car.
  • 17:34 - 17:37
    And so, rather than browsing
    a web page,
  • 17:37 - 17:39
    today, when you go
    to look for information,
  • 17:40 - 17:41
    you type a query into Google,
  • 17:41 - 17:43
    and you get a static web page
  • 17:43 - 17:45
    that was probably made
    two years ago,
  • 17:45 - 17:47
    or maybe even some cases,
    five years ago.
  • 17:47 - 17:50
    And that's like a billboard.
  • 17:50 - 17:53
    It's a static representation
    that doesn't change.
  • 17:54 - 17:59
    And it certainly doesn't change
    to adapt to you or me.
  • 17:59 - 18:00
    It's just we both see
    the same thing.
  • 18:00 - 18:02
    You type in a website.
  • 18:02 - 18:03
    We both see
    exactly the same thing,
  • 18:03 - 18:06
    regardless of the time of day,
    or the location,
  • 18:06 - 18:08
    or back history,
    or what we're interested in.
  • 18:09 - 18:10
    In the future,
  • 18:10 - 18:14
    content is going to be served
    to every individual
  • 18:14 - 18:17
    in a completely personalized
    and interactive way.
  • 18:17 - 18:21
    So your web page
    of images, and text, and video
  • 18:21 - 18:25
    is going to unfurl itself
    on the fly,
  • 18:26 - 18:27
    completely novel,
  • 18:28 - 18:30
    adapted to your interests
  • 18:30 - 18:33
    and what you've talked about
    previously with your AI.
  • 18:33 - 18:36
    And that's just
    a completely different paradigm
  • 18:36 - 18:40
    that I think people
    are not quite yet grasping.
  • 18:40 - 18:42
    - Mustafa, when you say
    "digital people,"
  • 18:42 - 18:43
    what do you mean by that?
  • 18:44 - 18:46
    - Well, if you think about it,
  • 18:46 - 18:47
    what makes a person a person
  • 18:47 - 18:50
    is my ability
    to speak to you right now,
  • 18:51 - 18:55
    my ability to see what you see,
    and my ability to take actions,
  • 18:56 - 18:58
    so buy things, book things,
  • 18:58 - 19:02
    plan, arrange, coordinate,
    write emails, make phone calls.
  • 19:02 - 19:04
    At some point
    in the next few years,
  • 19:04 - 19:07
    an AI is going to be able to do
    all of those things
  • 19:07 - 19:09
    pretty much as well as a human.
  • 19:09 - 19:11
    But of course,
    it won't be a human.
  • 19:11 - 19:13
    It will be a digital person.
  • 19:13 - 19:15
    And I think that's probably
    the best metaphor
  • 19:15 - 19:18
    to help us understand what's coming
    over the next few years.
  • 19:19 - 19:21
    - What does it mean
  • 19:21 - 19:24
    as we move into an environment
  • 19:24 - 19:28
    where so many of the interactions
    that we will have
  • 19:28 - 19:31
    will be with digital people,
  • 19:31 - 19:33
    as opposed to people people?
  • 19:34 - 19:37
    How do you think
    that changes the economy?
  • 19:38 - 19:39
    How does it change society?
  • 19:40 - 19:41
    How does it change government?
  • 19:41 - 19:44
    What are some of your thoughts
    about that?
  • 19:45 - 19:49
    - Well, one of the amazing things
    about these digital people
  • 19:49 - 19:53
    is that they can actually be made
    to be very controlled.
  • 19:53 - 19:56
    You can actually design
    very precise behaviors.
  • 19:57 - 20:01
    And so, for example,
    in the AI that we've made, Pi,
  • 20:01 - 20:03
    it is very kind and empathetic.
  • 20:04 - 20:07
    It's very supportive.
    It's very encouraging.
  • 20:07 - 20:08
    It's infinitely patient.
  • 20:09 - 20:10
    It doesn't judge you.
  • 20:11 - 20:14
    And so many of the downsides
    of human interaction,
  • 20:14 - 20:16
    where you might feel
    socially anxious,
  • 20:16 - 20:17
    you might feel a bit paranoid
  • 20:17 - 20:19
    about what the other person's
    thinking,
  • 20:19 - 20:21
    you might feel pushed around.
  • 20:21 - 20:22
    Or you might feel
  • 20:22 - 20:24
    that that other person
    didn't hear you out.
  • 20:24 - 20:26
    You were telling a story
    about your ski trip,
  • 20:26 - 20:28
    and suddenly, they're talking
    about their ski trip
  • 20:28 - 20:30
    that they had last year,
  • 20:30 - 20:32
    and you're like, "Wait,
    but I haven't finished my thought."
  • 20:32 - 20:34
    Your AI doesn't do that to you.
  • 20:34 - 20:37
    Your AI is infinitely patient
    and supportive.
  • 20:37 - 20:40
    And so, there's a huge amount
    of upside there,
  • 20:40 - 20:43
    but it's also
    a big transition, right?
  • 20:43 - 20:45
    Because I think, increasingly,
  • 20:45 - 20:47
    people will choose
    to spend time with their AIs,
  • 20:48 - 20:51
    perhaps more than they spend
    time with other humans.
  • 20:51 - 20:54
    And so one
    of the design considerations
  • 20:54 - 20:55
    that we have to factor in,
  • 20:55 - 20:57
    and we think about a lot
    at Inflection,
  • 20:57 - 21:00
    is to really pay attention
  • 21:00 - 21:01
    to the values of the AI
  • 21:02 - 21:05
    and how we condition
    and shape the AI,
  • 21:05 - 21:07
    for example, to encourage you
  • 21:07 - 21:09
    to spend more time
    with your loved ones,
  • 21:09 - 21:10
    to encourage you to be brave,
  • 21:10 - 21:13
    and overcome your social anxiety
    and go to the party,
  • 21:13 - 21:15
    to provide you with a safe space
  • 21:15 - 21:18
    to practice for your interview
    or your exam,
  • 21:18 - 21:20
    but still have you focused
  • 21:20 - 21:23
    on being out in the real world,
    connected,
  • 21:23 - 21:25
    having experiences
    with other humans.
  • 21:25 - 21:28
    And so, every single discipline,
    every single area of society
  • 21:28 - 21:32
    is going to have to grapple
    with this new reality
  • 21:32 - 21:34
    that there will in fact
    be digital people
  • 21:34 - 21:37
    that are as significant
    and as important
  • 21:38 - 21:41
    as every other relationship
    in our lives.
  • 21:41 - 21:44
    It would be impossible
    to consider today
  • 21:44 - 21:49
    not having a smartphone
    in your life or a laptop.
  • 21:49 - 21:53
    That's just become second nature
    in less than a decade.
  • 21:53 - 21:54
    - Yes.
  • 21:54 - 21:57
    - Six billion people have
    a smartphone now or more.
  • 21:58 - 22:01
    And so, that's probably
    the trajectory we're on
  • 22:01 - 22:03
    for these personal intelligences.
  • 22:03 - 22:05
    This is the natural evolution
    of technology
  • 22:05 - 22:08
    from personal computing
    to personal intelligence.
  • 22:08 - 22:12
    - And I think people
    will be relieved to hear you say
  • 22:12 - 22:18
    that you find it important
    that the values of these AI people
  • 22:18 - 22:21
    that you are developing,
    that you're inventing,
  • 22:22 - 22:24
    needs to be humane
  • 22:24 - 22:26
    and needs to keep people
    engaging with other people.
  • 22:27 - 22:28
    Of course,
  • 22:28 - 22:30
    you and I can both imagine
  • 22:30 - 22:33
    that there are going to be
    lots of corporations
  • 22:33 - 22:36
    that want to maximize profitability
  • 22:36 - 22:40
    and therefore ensure that people
    are engaging with their AI
  • 22:40 - 22:42
    as much as humanly possible,
  • 22:43 - 22:45
    just as some companies do
  • 22:45 - 22:48
    with their smartphones
    or their applications,
  • 22:48 - 22:51
    just as sometimes you want to sell
  • 22:51 - 22:55
    as much food
    as you possibly can to a person,
  • 22:55 - 22:57
    so even if it means
    that they're obese.
  • 22:57 - 22:59
    All of these things.
  • 22:59 - 23:02
    And I wonder, do you think that --
  • 23:02 - 23:05
    How do we guard
    against the excesses
  • 23:05 - 23:10
    that comes from a technology
    that is changing so much faster
  • 23:10 - 23:15
    than our ability to understand it,
    train with it, prepare for it?
  • 23:16 - 23:19
    We're going to be mostly
    the people we are right now,
  • 23:19 - 23:22
    and these things are suddenly
    just going to be "poof!" around us.
  • 23:22 - 23:24
    It's not like we can train people
  • 23:24 - 23:28
    to, like, "Okay, you've got to grow
    into becoming an adult,
  • 23:28 - 23:30
    and here's what it is."
  • 23:30 - 23:32
    It's just going to be there.
  • 23:33 - 23:38
    - Well, look, I think that
    we are making incredible progress
  • 23:38 - 23:40
    as a civilization,
  • 23:40 - 23:42
    including on the corporation front.
  • 23:43 - 23:47
    Society is changing much faster
    than I think people fully realize.
  • 23:47 - 23:49
    If you roll back to the 50s,
  • 23:49 - 23:51
    and the kinds of companies
    that we had,
  • 23:51 - 23:53
    and the kind of way
  • 23:53 - 23:56
    that they would externalize
    their downsides --
  • 23:56 - 23:59
    whether it was dumping chemicals
    into the river
  • 24:00 - 24:04
    or really mistreating their staff
    in horrible ways --
  • 24:05 - 24:08
    I think that it's inconceivable
    that we would have companies
  • 24:08 - 24:10
    that are really pushing smoking
  • 24:11 - 24:13
    in the way that they did
    back in the day,
  • 24:13 - 24:16
    or really pushing
    obesity and fatty foods.
  • 24:16 - 24:20
    We're really, I think,
    making a march forward,
  • 24:20 - 24:22
    and look,
    it's not a solved problem.
  • 24:23 - 24:24
    Fundamentally,
  • 24:24 - 24:26
    companies are constantly
    in a battle
  • 24:26 - 24:28
    to try to be more responsible
  • 24:28 - 24:32
    and to be more considerate
    and respectful of their people.
  • 24:32 - 24:34
    All I can say is that,
    for my part, at Inflection,
  • 24:34 - 24:37
    we've tried to structure
    the company
  • 24:37 - 24:41
    in a way that we proactively think
    about those consequences,
  • 24:41 - 24:43
    and we're actually
    registered legally
  • 24:43 - 24:45
    as a public benefit corporation.
  • 24:45 - 24:46
    - Oh, okay.
  • 24:46 - 24:50
    But now, let's go maybe
    five years in the future --
  • 24:50 - 24:51
    not ten, not twenty, just five --
  • 24:52 - 24:55
    where we are already
    starting to see
  • 24:55 - 25:00
    AI that is able to do
    a lot of the jobs
  • 25:00 - 25:03
    that people have today,
  • 25:03 - 25:07
    that young people are thinking
    about having in the future.
  • 25:08 - 25:13
    How should someone
    considering their career
  • 25:14 - 25:18
    adapt to a future of AI
  • 25:18 - 25:21
    that is so explosive,
    so transformative,
  • 25:21 - 25:23
    and so near-term,
  • 25:23 - 25:26
    so much uncertainty
    about what society will look like,
  • 25:26 - 25:30
    more than ever
    in the history of human beings?
  • 25:30 - 25:33
    How do young people
    think differently
  • 25:33 - 25:35
    about preparing themselves
    for the future?
  • 25:36 - 25:39
    - Well, the cool thing about it
    is that more so than ever before,
  • 25:40 - 25:44
    these technologies are accessible
    and programmable
  • 25:44 - 25:47
    by people who don't have
    technical skills.
  • 25:48 - 25:51
    So you don't have to be
    a professional engineer
  • 25:51 - 25:54
    to be able to play
    with an AI model.
  • 25:54 - 25:56
    You can prompt it
    using your own language
  • 25:56 - 25:58
    with your own ideas.
  • 25:59 - 26:01
    That means that you can bring
    all your creativity
  • 26:01 - 26:04
    and all of your inventiveness
  • 26:05 - 26:08
    to an off-the-shelf AI model
    very, very easily.
  • 26:08 - 26:12
    So that's the first thing
    I would say is, "Don't be afraid
  • 26:12 - 26:14
    because people think
  • 26:14 - 26:16
    that there's a big
    technical barrier to get over" --
  • 26:16 - 26:17
    that's not true anymore.
  • 26:18 - 26:19
    Secondly,
  • 26:19 - 26:23
    there's clearly a huge benefit
    to people who come from outside
  • 26:23 - 26:27
    of software engineering
    and technical fields
  • 26:27 - 26:29
    actually playing with these things.
  • 26:29 - 26:32
    So we need
    more wide-ranging voices,
  • 26:32 - 26:34
    people with different backgrounds
  • 26:34 - 26:37
    grabbing hold of this stuff
    and making new things with it,
  • 26:37 - 26:40
    because all perspectives
    are needed at this time.
  • 26:40 - 26:41
    This is a massive transition,
  • 26:41 - 26:43
    just like the arrival
    of the Internet
  • 26:43 - 26:45
    or the arrival of light.
  • 26:45 - 26:47
    Can you imagine what it was like
  • 26:47 - 26:50
    for the people who first
    saw a light bulb turn on
  • 26:50 - 26:51
    and saw the power of electricity?
  • 26:51 - 26:54
    That sparked a revolution
    in people inventing things,
  • 26:54 - 26:55
    in microelectronics,
  • 26:55 - 27:00
    and in myriad ways to make
    our lives more comfortable.
  • 27:00 - 27:03
    So think of this as a creative
    and exciting moment
  • 27:03 - 27:07
    to be an inventor
    and to use these tools
  • 27:07 - 27:10
    to basically make
    our dreams come true.
  • 27:10 - 27:11
    This is a great moment.
  • 27:12 - 27:13
    - Well, let me ask,
  • 27:14 - 27:18
    all of these transformations
    also create disruptions.
  • 27:18 - 27:21
    Some of those disruptions
    are super opportunities.
  • 27:21 - 27:23
    Some of them are more challenging
    if you're not ready.
  • 27:24 - 27:26
    Give us a couple of jobs
  • 27:27 - 27:30
    that you think people
    shouldn't actually want to get into
  • 27:30 - 27:32
    in the next five or ten years --
  • 27:32 - 27:34
    because they're not going
    to be around with AI --
  • 27:34 - 27:35
    and why.
  • 27:36 - 27:40
    - Well, any new technology
    disrupts certain jobs, right?
  • 27:40 - 27:43
    So, it's pretty clear
  • 27:43 - 27:46
    that call center operators,
    for example,
  • 27:46 - 27:49
    who manage
    customer service requests
  • 27:50 - 27:53
    or even who do sales,
    for example --
  • 27:54 - 27:55
    there are going to be AIs
  • 27:55 - 27:57
    that try to do that
    more efficiently,
  • 27:57 - 27:59
    and we're already seeing
    those kinds of things,
  • 27:59 - 28:01
    so I'd be worried
    about those kinds of jobs.
  • 28:02 - 28:04
    I think that the most valuable
    skill sets
  • 28:05 - 28:09
    are going to be those
    that straddle creative skills,
  • 28:09 - 28:12
    as well as problem-solving
    and technical.
  • 28:13 - 28:15
    So breadth is
    more important than ever.
  • 28:16 - 28:18
    That's one of the things that AIs
    don't do so well
  • 28:18 - 28:20
    is integrate a wide range
    of different skills
  • 28:21 - 28:23
    into a single source.
  • 28:23 - 28:25
    So I would say be bold
  • 28:25 - 28:30
    and do multidisciplinary
    educational courses
  • 28:30 - 28:32
    that teach you the best of both.
  • 28:32 - 28:35
    - So Mustafa, this is a technology
  • 28:35 - 28:38
    that will improve
    human capabilities
  • 28:38 - 28:39
    to anyone that has them.
  • 28:39 - 28:43
    It'll lead to faster inventions,
  • 28:44 - 28:47
    reduced waste,
    more efficiency in every field.
  • 28:48 - 28:51
    As you say, it's more than just
    a transformative technology.
  • 28:51 - 28:56
    It also changes how we think
    about the entire world and society.
  • 28:56 - 28:57
    I'm wondering,
  • 28:57 - 28:59
    for young people today,
  • 28:59 - 29:05
    who might think about having 50,
    60, 70 more years on the planet,
  • 29:07 - 29:10
    how do you think
    about their future?
  • 29:10 - 29:13
    Will they even be recognizable
    as human beings
  • 29:13 - 29:14
    when they're adults?
  • 29:15 - 29:19
    Do you think they'll have
    limitless lifespan?
  • 29:20 - 29:23
    When I think about applying
    artificial intelligence to medicine
  • 29:23 - 29:26
    and to biotechnology, and genetics,
  • 29:27 - 29:29
    it really does seem staggering
  • 29:30 - 29:32
    how much the world could change
  • 29:32 - 29:34
    from what we can
    even imagine today.
  • 29:35 - 29:36
    - I think that's true.
  • 29:36 - 29:40
    Technology and the scientific
    process of invention
  • 29:41 - 29:43
    is there to reduce our suffering.
  • 29:43 - 29:48
    It's there to make our lives
    more peaceful and more enjoyable.
  • 29:50 - 29:52
    Just a few hundred years ago,
  • 29:52 - 29:56
    the average life expectancy
    was closer to 50 years old.
  • 29:56 - 30:02
    So science has massively advanced
    our well-being and health
  • 30:02 - 30:03
    because we've invented drugs,
  • 30:03 - 30:08
    and we've found ways
    to get more crops, for example,
  • 30:08 - 30:11
    out of the same square hectare.
  • 30:11 - 30:13
    I think that is
    an incredible achievement
  • 30:13 - 30:14
    of creativity and invention.
  • 30:15 - 30:18
    And we're about to take
    that engine of creativity,
  • 30:18 - 30:20
    which was our human intelligence,
  • 30:21 - 30:24
    and turn that into a commodity.
  • 30:24 - 30:26
    We're going to make it
    widely available
  • 30:26 - 30:28
    to millions of people
  • 30:28 - 30:30
    to be able to be creative
    and inventive.
  • 30:30 - 30:31
    So I think you're totally right.
  • 30:32 - 30:34
    By 2050, I wouldn't be surprised
  • 30:34 - 30:37
    if there were people
    who were being born
  • 30:37 - 30:39
    that might live
    for 200 to 300 years,
  • 30:39 - 30:43
    as we are going to make
    very fundamental breakthroughs
  • 30:43 - 30:45
    in medical science
  • 30:45 - 30:47
    that tackle aging,
    that cure disease.
  • 30:48 - 30:50
    And so that raises the question,
  • 30:50 - 30:52
    "Well, what do we do
    with our lives?
  • 30:52 - 30:53
    How do we live?
  • 30:54 - 30:57
    If a large chunk of people
  • 30:57 - 31:00
    are not working for their income
    for most of the day,
  • 31:01 - 31:03
    then how do we find
    meaning and purpose?"
  • 31:04 - 31:05
    And people often ask me
    this question,
  • 31:05 - 31:06
    and I actually think,
  • 31:06 - 31:09
    "Well, remember
    when you were young,
  • 31:09 - 31:13
    and you had hobbies, and passions,
    and ambitions, and desires,
  • 31:13 - 31:15
    and you were obsessed
    with things? --
  • 31:15 - 31:17
    that creativity and playfulness
  • 31:18 - 31:22
    is increasingly going to be
    available to adults
  • 31:22 - 31:24
    and people of all ages."
  • 31:24 - 31:26
    Because, I think,
    in the long-term future,
  • 31:27 - 31:28
    the real challenge for us
    is figuring out
  • 31:28 - 31:31
    how we support people
    when they don't work
  • 31:31 - 31:34
    and maybe give them
    a universal basic income,
  • 31:34 - 31:37
    so that for at least
    a portion of their week,
  • 31:37 - 31:41
    they're freed up
    from the everyday grind of work
  • 31:41 - 31:45
    to take care of their families,
    to look after the elderly,
  • 31:45 - 31:47
    to be more involved
    in bringing up children,
  • 31:47 - 31:49
    to support community service,
  • 31:49 - 31:50
    to be creative.
  • 31:51 - 31:53
    I think that's
    an important thing to remember.
  • 31:53 - 31:55
    We didn't create society
  • 31:55 - 32:00
    in order to artificially invent
    jobs and work for the sake of it.
  • 32:00 - 32:04
    We work so that we can play, right?
  • 32:04 - 32:06
    And so the goal is to reduce
  • 32:06 - 32:08
    the amount of work
    that we are forced to do
  • 32:08 - 32:11
    and increase the amount of time
    that we have for play
  • 32:11 - 32:13
    and for chosen work.
  • 32:14 - 32:16
    You may choose
    to still work super hard --
  • 32:16 - 32:17
    that could be a choice.
  • 32:17 - 32:19
    It could be very productive.
  • 32:19 - 32:20
    It could be very creative
    and inventive.
  • 32:21 - 32:23
    But I think
    that's a much better society
  • 32:23 - 32:24
    that we want to live in,
  • 32:24 - 32:26
    where most people,
    most of the time,
  • 32:26 - 32:29
    are choosing how to spend
    most of their week.
  • 32:29 - 32:31
    - Yeah. And it feels
    like the pandemic
  • 32:32 - 32:36
    has in some ways helped us think
    about that transition, right?
  • 32:36 - 32:38
    You already have people who say,
    "You know what?
  • 32:38 - 32:43
    I don't want to be in the office
    from nine to five every day
  • 32:43 - 32:45
    with a one-hour commute both ways.
  • 32:45 - 32:48
    I actually want to spend
    more time with my family,
  • 32:48 - 32:52
    spend more time
    with my friends, with my pets,
  • 32:52 - 32:53
    engage more,
  • 32:53 - 32:55
    live in a place
    that I'm happy living."
  • 32:55 - 32:57
    It turns out that the pandemic
  • 32:57 - 33:01
    and the technology that came
    from distance engagement,
  • 33:01 - 33:03
    Zoom calls, all the rest,
  • 33:03 - 33:08
    technology facilitated
    more independence of choice
  • 33:08 - 33:11
    for people all over the world
    to live the way they want to live
  • 33:11 - 33:17
    and balance their lives
    with what they do for a living.
  • 33:18 - 33:22
    And artificial intelligence
    just turbocharges that.
  • 33:22 - 33:24
    Is that the way
    you're thinking about this?
  • 33:25 - 33:28
    - Yeah. I think that we got
    a good taster of prioritization
  • 33:28 - 33:29
    during the pandemic,
  • 33:29 - 33:32
    and in fact, that's actually
    a really interesting point
  • 33:32 - 33:34
    because it shows you
  • 33:34 - 33:40
    how many unquestioned assumptions
    are actually buried
  • 33:41 - 33:43
    underneath the structure
    of society.
  • 33:44 - 33:45
    Who would have thought
  • 33:45 - 33:47
    that we could actually work
    entirely remote
  • 33:47 - 33:49
    and be pretty productive?
  • 33:51 - 33:53
    It's not that it was
    without consequences,
  • 33:53 - 33:55
    but the world carried on,
  • 33:55 - 33:57
    and there are actually
    huge benefits now
  • 33:57 - 33:58
    to working part-time
  • 33:58 - 34:00
    and not being five days
    in the office.
  • 34:00 - 34:01
    Huge, huge benefits.
  • 34:01 - 34:03
    So I think that --
  • 34:03 - 34:05
    Who would have thought
    that actually that was something
  • 34:05 - 34:08
    that we could re-engineer
    in terms of society?
  • 34:08 - 34:09
    So I'm very interested
    in this question.
  • 34:09 - 34:13
    What are the other things
    that we take for granted today?
  • 34:13 - 34:14
    What are the silly rules?
  • 34:14 - 34:16
    What are the silly social habits,
  • 34:16 - 34:19
    and customs, and practices,
    and structures
  • 34:19 - 34:21
    that just are because they were
  • 34:22 - 34:25
    that we could re-engineer,
    and turn upside down,
  • 34:25 - 34:27
    and make them more favorable
  • 34:27 - 34:30
    to every single one of us
    as individuals?
  • 34:30 - 34:32
    - And it turned out
    we could re-engineer it immediately
  • 34:32 - 34:35
    because we had to,
    because the pandemic forced it.
  • 34:35 - 34:37
    It didn't take years.
    It took weeks.
  • 34:37 - 34:39
    It took weeks, and people showed
  • 34:39 - 34:41
    they could actually work
    completely differently.
  • 34:41 - 34:44
    I can think of a few things
    that could be re-engineered
  • 34:44 - 34:47
    by a society that didn't
    have to work for wealth.
  • 34:48 - 34:50
    Gender bias, right?
  • 34:50 - 34:53
    Racism. Nationalism.
  • 34:53 - 34:55
    A world where people
  • 34:55 - 34:57
    can actually live
    the way they want to --
  • 34:57 - 34:59
    and not just a few people,
  • 35:00 - 35:02
    but anyone that has access
    to these technologies --
  • 35:03 - 35:05
    will be a world
    where people choose
  • 35:05 - 35:09
    not to be discriminated against
    to a much greater degree,
  • 35:09 - 35:11
    because they don't have to play
    those power games
  • 35:11 - 35:14
    that society forces upon them
  • 35:14 - 35:16
    because that's the way
    it's been done
  • 35:16 - 35:18
    for generations and generations.
  • 35:18 - 35:19
    - Yeah. And I agree.
  • 35:19 - 35:22
    I think one of the other things
    that is coming down the line
  • 35:22 - 35:23
    that is going to change that
  • 35:23 - 35:27
    is the ability to generate
    power, electricity,
  • 35:27 - 35:28
    in a decentralized way.
  • 35:29 - 35:32
    If we really do get
    a battery breakthrough
  • 35:32 - 35:33
    in the next 20 years
  • 35:33 - 35:35
    such that renewables --
  • 35:35 - 35:38
    I guess primarily solar,
    but also wind --
  • 35:39 - 35:42
    can be generated
    very far away from cities
  • 35:42 - 35:44
    and stored,
    and can carry you through --
  • 35:45 - 35:48
    that's going to completely change
    the way that cities operate,
  • 35:48 - 35:49
    and it's going to change
  • 35:49 - 35:52
    how much emphasis we put
    on living close to one another
  • 35:52 - 35:56
    or in existing cities
    and urban areas.
  • 35:57 - 36:00
    So there's lots of those
    technological breakthroughs
  • 36:00 - 36:02
    which I think are cooking away
    in the background
  • 36:03 - 36:05
    which will completely change
    the social structure
  • 36:05 - 36:07
    that we are currently so used to.
  • 36:08 - 36:11
    - Mustafa Suleyman,
    thanks so much for joining.
  • 36:11 - 36:13
    - [Narrator] And for our viewers,
  • 36:13 - 36:15
    if you're intrigued
    by the possibilities of AI
  • 36:15 - 36:18
    and you want to dive deeper
    into this fascinating world,
  • 36:19 - 36:22
    we invite you to check out
    our other videos in this series.
  • 36:22 - 36:24
    And thank you for watching.
  • 36:24 - 36:26
    ♪ [music] ♪
Title:
The Rise of Digital People: Mustafa Suleyman and Ian Bremmer on the Future of AI
ASR Confidence:
1.00
Description:

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Video Language:
English
Team:
Marginal Revolution University
Project:
Other videos
Duration:
36:31

English subtitles

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